Mets: Three Jeurys Familia predictions for the 2020 season

PORT ST. LUCIE, FLORIDA - MARCH 03: Jeurys Familia #27 of the New York Mets delivers a pitch during the spring training game against the Miami Marlins at Clover Park on March 03, 2020 in Port St. Lucie, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
PORT ST. LUCIE, FLORIDA - MARCH 03: Jeurys Familia #27 of the New York Mets delivers a pitch during the spring training game against the Miami Marlins at Clover Park on March 03, 2020 in Port St. Lucie, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – AUGUST 21: Jeurys Familia #27 of the New York Mets looks on from the dugout in the fifth inning against the Cleveland Indians at Citi Field on August 21, 2019 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – AUGUST 21: Jeurys Familia #27 of the New York Mets looks on from the dugout in the fifth inning against the Cleveland Indians at Citi Field on August 21, 2019 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /

Will Jeurys Familia have a better year for the New York Mets in 2020? Our predictions tell the story of what we can all expect.

What does Jeurys Familia have in store for the New York Mets and their fans in 2020? The veteran reliever was at one point a dominant yet untrustworthy closer for the team during their consecutive playoff runs in 2015 and 2016.

For the most part, his notorious outings came in those playoff runs. He hasn’t been nearly the same pitcher since, settling in with the club as a setup man last year rather than the closer.

Familia won’t work his way back to closing again anytime soon—at least nobody seems to think so. He’s coming off a horrific season featuring a 5.70 ERA and more than six walks per nine. Is he going to rebound? Let’s make some predictions.

Familia is bad, but not 2019 bad

It’s going to be another ugly year for Familia in 2020, but not the same conventional kind of ugly it was in 2019. He’s going to remove his glasses, let down his hair, and change out of that dirty smock. His numbers will look better. Even then, there won’t be any chance he can hide behind the ugly lack of control he has on his pitches.

Familia has almost always finished the year with a high walk total. Even in 2016 when he led the league with 51 saves the man averaged 3.6 per nine frames.

Free passes will be his downfall once again this year with an average of around five per every nine innings he tosses.

Fortunately, home runs will be closer to normal this year with Major League Baseball stepping in and changing the baseballs—a whole separate prediction I have. Familia wasn’t exactly killed by dingers in 2019, but he did see his totals climb up much higher than his career average.

I predict we see Familia’s ERA somewhere in the mid-4.00s. Let’s call it even and say he pitches 50 innings and allows 25 earned runs in 2020.

PITTSBURGH, PA – AUGUST 04: Jeurys Familia #27 of the New York Mets celebrates with Tomas Nido #3 after the final out in a 13-2 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on August 4, 2019 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PA – AUGUST 04: Jeurys Familia #27 of the New York Mets celebrates with Tomas Nido #3 after the final out in a 13-2 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on August 4, 2019 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images) /

Bring back Fat Familia!

Familia lost a lot of weight this offseason which tells us a few things about him. He’s motivated and capable of doing things we may not have thought he could.

While it’s admirable to see anyone take charge of their diet and life, I don’t think this is necessarily the best thing for a relief pitcher. I like my pitchers to have some power. The less their legs look like tree trunks, the less of it they may have.

Familia was fine in the past pitching as a fat man. Although it’s quite possible his weight steadily increased over the years and he’s much bigger than he was during his prime, I don’t think the scale was a reason at all for his weak 2019 season.

For the first time in his major league career, Familia is now dealing with the balance of keeping his weight down while maintaining strength. It’s not an easy thing to achieve. If it was, you better believe I’d be walking around shirtless carrying a barbell set on my shoulders.

I worry this dramatic change could lead to an injury. I’m not a doctor nor do I pretend to be one in bars when talking to women—anymore. I do think this could potentially help or hurt his recovery in one extreme or another.

This is just speculation so you’d probably want to consult with your doctor and bookie before making a bet on this prediction.

On the bright side, Familia is less likely to get gassed on the mound early. This could help turn him into a different kind of pitcher and become the asset Brodie Van Wagenen wanted him to become when he re-signed the single-season Mets saves leader.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JUNE 11: Jeurys Familia #27 of the New York Mets pitches in the seventh inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on June 11, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JUNE 11: Jeurys Familia #27 of the New York Mets pitches in the seventh inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on June 11, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /

An option for the opener

The Mets have already discussed the possibility of using openers in 2020. I don’t think it will be a common occurrence, but I do think there’s a really good chance we see it happen at least once.

In the early talks, it seems the team would use it during the fifth spot in the rotation. Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo are the pair mentioned as potential options before either Steven Matz or Michael Wacha enter the game. Why not consider Familia?

Lugo has no business in baseball as an opener. If he’s on the mound in the first inning, he has to be a starter. His innings are far too valuable.

Gsellman is a little different. But because he has started in the past, I would like to have him available for more than one inning.

Familia is a traditional reliever and someone the Mets could and should actually consider as an opener if this is the direction they got. I understand it’s unfamiliar territory for him. But isn’t the whole idea of an opener strange to just about everyone?

I’m not confident enough to predict we actually see Familia open games for the Mets in 2020. I do envision a scenario where he becomes a viable option.

As one of the relievers in the bullpen we wouldn’t want to see go more than an inning at a time, it makes much more sense to use him early. Who knows what can happen? Maybe the Mets stumble onto something great like when Jim Carrey started doing serious roles.

For a bonus prediction, I think Familia ends up with at least one save this year. Last season was the first time since 2012 when he tossed just 12.1 innings that didn’t feature one from him. I see an unplanned new streak beginning in 2020.

Next. Three Wilson Ramos predictions for 2020

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What do you expect from Familia in 2020?

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