New York Mets: Three Edwin Diaz predictions for the 2020 season

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WASHINGTON, DC – SEPTEMBER 03: Edwin Diaz #39 of the New York Mets pitches against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on September 3, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images) /

Will New York Mets closer Edwin Diaz have a bounce-back season in 2020? I lay out some predictions for what we can expect.

Simply put, 2019 was a season to forget for New York Mets reliever Edwin Diaz. Coming off a stellar 57 save season with the Seattle Mariners, DÍaz came to New York with high expectations, especially given the hefty price paid to acquire him.

Unfortunately, much like most first-year Mets coming off all-star seasons, Díaz was a disappointment. Díaz displayed his electric stuff on many occasions and posted a 15.36 K/9 (3rd among relievers) which was an improvement from 2018. That being said, Díaz also led MLB relievers with 2.33 HR/9 and blew 7 saves in 2019.

In an important second season for one of the team’s key members, what does 2020 have in store for Edwin Díaz?

Diaz will break Familia’s saves record

Although he underperformed in 2019, Díaz has still compiled 135 career saves at just age 25. He currently ranks 22nd in franchise history in saves in a single season. If 2020 goes as expected for the Mets, Díaz should come into more than 33 save opportunities.

With the addition of Dellin Betances and a potential bounce-back season from Jeurys Familia, the Mets’ bullpen could be one of the National League’s most formidable in 2020. If the rest of the staff excels in their roles, Díaz should remain in the closer’s role for most of the season.

Although it may seem improbable to recapture his 2018 success with Seattle, he is still just 25 years old and his stuff was electric enough to generate 99 strikeouts in just 58 innings.

There has been plenty of hype around the Mets bullpen for the coming year. It all starts with Diaz putting together one of the best seasons a closer has in franchise history.

NEW YORK, NY – SEPTEMBER 08: Edwin Diaz #39 of the New York Mets in action against the Philadelphia Phillies during a game at Citi Field on September 8, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /

Diaz will lead all closers in HR/9

While I’m projecting a bounceback season, some things will remain constant. Díaz had the highest HR/9 rate in the majors last season and his HR/FB% spiked all the way to 26.8%, as compared to a mere 10.6% the previous season with the Mariners.

In a season where 57 major league players hit at least 30 home runs, it is not surprising that Díaz was torched by the “juiced ball” era.

It is doubtful that baseball will see another record-shattering spike in home runs for 2020. That being said, Díaz has done little to prove that he can keep the ball inside the park this coming season.

Among relief pitchers who are predominantly closers, Diaz will likely allow the most home runs once again in 2020.

A key to surviving this is to avoid giving up more than solo shots. Reducing walks, avoiding cheap hits, and making mistakes early in the inning are essential for Diaz to overcome this.

Surrendering home runs is nothing new to Diaz. Back in 2017, he averaged 1.4 home runs against per nine innings. Although far from what he got punished with in 2019, it was a hint of how many meatballs he would throw.

Despite the high number, Diaz still finished the year with a 3.27 ERA.

Plenty of talented pitchers can make it through a year getting punished by home runs. Diaz may need a little bit of help from his Mets teammates. The bigger the lead when he steps on the mound, the better for him and the team at overcoming this weakness.

MINNEAPOLIS, MN – JULY 16: Edwin Diaz #39 of the New York Mets pitches against the Minnesota Twins on July 16, 2019 at the Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Mets defeated the Twins 3-2. (Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images) /

An All-Star season and a full year in the closer’s role

For an 86 win team, a solid bullpen can either make or break a postseason run. For the Mets, the ladder was true. The 4.99 bullpen ERA was third-worst in the NL and their inability to blow away hitters showed as they ranked 14th in strikeouts.

During the Mets 46-26 second-half surge, the bullpen was drastically better, ranking in the top five in the National League for WAR and K/9. Had the Mets bullpen saved just 4 more games, they would have found themselves playing the eventual World Series champion Washington Nationals in the NL Wild Card game and could have perhaps re-written history.

I am predicting a bounce-back season for Edwin Díaz. With a team bolstering a young core of position players backed by a solid pitching staff, Díaz should find his usage to increase and to come into more save situations.

Although he failed to keep the ball in the yard in 2019, Díaz still showed flashes of electricity and has proven his ability to repeatedly blow away hitters. Díaz improved his slider late last season; opponents whiffed on 31% of his sliders in September 2019, as compared to 16% in May and 21% in June.

Even when the bulk of MLB’s best relief pitchers are in the National League, Díaz should sneak his way back on the All-Star roster and perhaps his performance will allow GM Brodie Van Wagenen to finally sleep at night knowing that he didn’t trade Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn in vein.

Next. Three Brad Brach predictions for 2020

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Home / New York Mets News

Will New York Mets closer Edwin Diaz have a bounce-back season in 2020? I lay out some predictions for what we can expect.

Diaz will break Familia’s saves record

Diaz will lead all closers in HR/9

An All-Star season and a full year in the closer’s role

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