New York Mets: Three Rick Porcello predictions for 2020
Rick Porcello is one of the toughest New York Mets players to make predictions about. His up and down career gives him a high ceiling with a low floor. What can we expect from him in 2020?
I’ve decided to challenge myself and come up with three predictions for New York Mets pitcher Rick Porcello. Among everyone on this roster, he’s the guy I feel has the widest ceiling and floor.
Porcello’s career has included everything from a Cy Young-winning season to multiple years where he looked like a number four starter. He’s about as up and down as anyone in the game with overall numbers suggesting he’s right around average or slightly above.
In 2020, he’ll look to regain some stock he lost after a bad final season with the Boston Red Sox in 2020. What can Mets fans expect from the man who grew up rooting for the Amazins?
An ERA Over 4.00
In 11 big league seasons, Porcello has finished with an ERA below 4.00 only three times. It’s an easy prediction to say he’ll do the same thing again in 2020.
Some may argue a switch from the American League East and Fenway Park to the National League East and Citi Field will help him. I think it will, but not to the extent where a lifetime 4.36 ERA is going to drop significantly.
Porcello spent a lot of time with the Detroit Tigers. Their ballpark tends to favor pitchers. While a member of their ball club, he pitched to a 4.30 ERA.
Fortunately, an ERA in the 4.00s isn’t so bad for Porcello in the role he’ll have with the Mets. He’s the fourth or fifth starter this year. This is about what we should expect from him although I’ll certainly accept something sweeter.
A Short Trip to the Injured List
One of my favorite attributes Porcello has is his ability to stay healthy. Well, as we’ve seen in the recent past, plenty of players have arrived in Flushing with the same reputation only to watch from the sidelines for a significant portion of the season.
Call me a pessimist if you must. I think Porcello suffers the same fate.
It won’t be a lengthy stay on the injured list for Porcello in 2020. I’m predicting he may miss a pair of starts at some point in the middle of the season. The Mets have been cautious with pitchers and have the depth to allow Porcello to sit out and heal up.
Now past 30, Porcello’s body is bound to begin breaking down. Even as a precaution, I have a tough time imagining him going through the entire year healthy.
MLB teams are able to manipulate the IL a little easier with the 15-day list dropped down to 10. If there’s an off-day mixed in, a starting pitcher could theoretically miss only a single start.
The Mets are fortunate to have Michael Wacha with the organization. His presence should mean the team is careful with injuries to the starting pitchers. As great as the offense has become, the starting pitching is still the franchise’s bread, butter, and garlic dipping sauce.
I hope I’m wrong with this prediction because of how valuable it would be to get 180-200 innings out of Porcello even with an average performance. Brodie Van Wagenen brought him here for a variety of reasons. One of them was undoubtedly his regular availability each season.
Double-Digit Wins
There’s only one season in Porcello’s career that didn’t end with double-digit wins. It’s a safe bet to predict he’ll do so again in 2020 considering the Mets should be a competitive team once again.
Porcello’s lone single-digit victory season came in 2015 when he still managed to win 9 games. Even in his weaker seasons, he has found a way to find 10 wins. Last year, despite having a 5.52 ERA, Porcello won 14 games. He can thank the Red Sox bats for helping him out. In 2020, I think we can say the same thing but about Pete Alonso and the rest of the boys on the Mets.
Winning has been a consistent part of Porcello’s time in the big leagues. He’s 149-118 which gives him a lifetime percentage of .558. One reason for this is how he has often found himself third, fourth, or even fifth in a rotation. While this doesn’t line up perfectly with other team’s back-of-the-rotation starters, it does account for a number of starts each year.
Based on his numbers, I do believe Porcello is the kind of competitor who will routinely pitch well enough to always keep his team in the game. If he’s on a team with a high octane offense, he may suffer in the ERA department. On a lesser offense-inclined organization, he may step up his game.
Wins for a starting pitcher don’t matter, but they also sort of do. Porcello has done plenty of winning in his career. I fully expect him to bring this with him to the 2020 Mets.
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What do you predict for Porcello in 2020?