Rick Porcello is one of the toughest New York Mets players to make predictions about. His up and down career gives him a high ceiling with a low floor. What can we expect from him in 2020?
Porcello’s career has included everything from a Cy Young-winning season to multiple years where he looked like a number four starter. He’s about as up and down as anyone in the game with overall numbers suggesting he’s right around average or slightly above.
In 2020, he’ll look to regain some stock he lost after a bad final season with the Boston Red Sox in 2020. What can Mets fans expect from the man who grew up rooting for the Amazins?
An ERA Over 4.00
In 11 big league seasons, Porcello has finished with an ERA below 4.00 only three times. It’s an easy prediction to say he’ll do the same thing again in 2020.
Some may argue a switch from the American League East and Fenway Park to the National League East and Citi Field will help him. I think it will, but not to the extent where a lifetime 4.36 ERA is going to drop significantly.
Porcello spent a lot of time with the Detroit Tigers. Their ballpark tends to favor pitchers. While a member of their ball club, he pitched to a 4.30 ERA.
Fortunately, an ERA in the 4.00s isn’t so bad for Porcello in the role he’ll have with the Mets. He’s the fourth or fifth starter this year. This is about what we should expect from him although I’ll certainly accept something sweeter.