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New York Mets: Three Brad Brach predictions for the 2020 season

By Tim Boyle |
NEW YORK, NY - AUGUST 24: Brad Brach #29 of the New York Mets looks on from the dugout after giving up two runs to the Atlanta Braves in the 8th in a game at Citi Field on August 24, 2019 in New York City. The Braves defeated the Mets 9-4. Teams are wearing special color schemed uniforms with players choosing nicknames to display for Players' Weekend. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - AUGUST 24: Brad Brach #29 of the New York Mets looks on from the dugout after giving up two runs to the Atlanta Braves in the 8th in a game at Citi Field on August 24, 2019 in New York City. The Braves defeated the Mets 9-4. Teams are wearing special color schemed uniforms with players choosing nicknames to display for Players' Weekend. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
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CINCINNATI, OHIO – SEPTEMBER 22: Brad Brach #29 of the New York Mets pitches in the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on September 22, 2019 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Bryan Woolston/Getty Images)
CINCINNATI, OHIO – SEPTEMBER 22: Brad Brach #29 of the New York Mets pitches in the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on September 22, 2019 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Bryan Woolston/Getty Images) /

What can we expect from New York Mets relief pitcher Brad Brach in 2020?

This offseason’s Brad Brach signing might be the most important forgotten move made by the New York Mets. Early in the winter while trees were still clinging to the faintest hint of fall foliage in some areas, Brodie Van Wagenen re-signed Brach to an extremely affordable one-year deal with a player option for 2021.

The contract will pay Brach $850,000 in 2020 and another $1.25 million in 2021. He can make even more in year two depending on how many games he pitches.

All eyes will be on the Mets bullpen in 2020 as fans hope to see drastic improvements. Brach could actually become one of the most relied upon relievers on the staff. In his return to Flushing, I’m going to make these three predictions for the righty from Freehold.

Brach has a very “Wilson 2019” season

Last year, Justin Wilson became one of the best relievers on the Mets. This wasn’t always the case. A lengthy stint on the IL made it look like this Van Wagenen signing would get lumped in with his other poor free agent additions and trades he made. A later resurgence changed the narrative.

When Wilson did finally get healthy, he quickly showed why BVW wanted him in the first place. He ended the year with strong numbers, giving the team and fans hope for a promising 2020.

What does this have to do with Brach? Well, I see a similar thing happening this year with him.

Brach won’t have the same level of success. However, with the upcoming season as his age 34 campaign, I’m already prepared to see him miss a portion of the year.

There’s something about putting on a Mets uniform that causes players to get hurt. I’m not superstitious, pessimistic, or saying anything we haven’t already realized. Although Brach has stayed generally healthy throughout his career, I believe this is a year where we miss him for about a month.

This doesn’t mean Brach will have a lost season. Rather, I am expecting him to pitch well while he is around. He’ll have an ERA around his career total of 3.33, possibly leaning a few points in either direction.

Brach isn’t here to save games or rescue the Mets. He’s here to give them another option in case of disaster. I think he’ll do a fine job at it.

TAMPA, FL – FEBRUARY 21: Dellin Betances #68 of the New York Yankees poses for a portrait during the New York Yankees photo day on February 21, 2018 at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
TAMPA, FL – FEBRUARY 21: Dellin Betances #68 of the New York Yankees poses for a portrait during the New York Yankees photo day on February 21, 2018 at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /

Brach has more saves than Betances

Although I would guess Brach is far down in the line to potentially take over the closer’s role in 2020 at any point, I do think he’ll have a chance to save a game here or there. In my second prediction, I’m going to proclaim he gets more saves than Dellin Betances.

How this happens is simple. Betances is a guy we should expect to pitch mostly in games where the Mets are winning. This means the majority of his appearances will take place in a setup role before Edwin Diaz enters the game. What about those other games?

There’s always an opportunity for a comeback. We should also see a few games this season when Diaz is unavailable to pitch the ninth. Seth Lugo is already limited in how often he can go which leaves this team with fewer options.

Brach does have closer experience and as recently as 2018, he was pitching in the ninth-inning regularly for the Baltimore Orioles. He saved 18 games for them a year prior, posting a 3.18 ERA for the year.

Brach isn’t the same pitcher he was during his best years in Baltimore. However, save opportunities are often available for just about anyone. Due to the circumstances of where he fits in with the bullpen, I think he’ll have even just one more opportunity to close out a game and earn a save to his stat sheet than Betances will. Last year, Paul Sewald even earned a save for the Mets.

Betances is capable of closing. If anything happens to Diaz, he should be the guy who takes over.

Because of this prediction, I suppose I’m betting on Diaz to bounce back and have a far more productive season. Otherwise, with a healthy Betances in the role, Brach has no chance of passing him.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – AUGUST 21: Brad Brach #29 of the New York Mets reacts after a run is scored by the Cleveland Indians in the sixth inning at Citi Field on August 21, 2019 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – AUGUST 21: Brad Brach #29 of the New York Mets reacts after a run is scored by the Cleveland Indians in the sixth inning at Citi Field on August 21, 2019 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /

Brach leads the bullpen in wins

Do I actually believe Brach wins more games than Seth Lugo this year? I’m a little iffy on that. Lugo is the kind of pitcher who will have many opportunities to earn victories for the 2020 Mets. I need some prediction to make, though. And a logical one for Brach seems to involve wins.

Back in 2016, Brach was a middle reliever for the Orioles and somehow managed to finish the year with 10 wins. It’s not impossible for him to repeat this in 2020. However, I would set the actual total somewhere around six or seven.

Brach can certainly do this. He won five games in 2019 and has another year in his past with seven victories. Some pitchers just tend to get put in a spot to win games. The role I expect Brach to be in this season will set him up well to do so.

I figure Brach will pitch a lot of games with the Mets trailing. In comeback victories, he may be the man on the mound when the Amazins come rumbling back.

Last year’s team had four 4+ winners in relief. Lugo led the way with seven. A year earlier, Robert Gsellman was the bullpen-win-king with six of them.

Wins for relievers are often fluky and don’t always measure a pitcher’s talent. Closers will routinely finish with a bad winning percentage because the majority of the time they factor into the decision is in a blown save.

This isn’t a prediction for Brach that will make anyone jump for joy. Nevertheless, it’s a nice little number for us to possibly watch grow.

Next. Three Jacob deGrom predictions for 2020

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