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Mets: Three Noah Syndergaard predictions for the 2020 season
Noah Syndergaard had a down season last year for the New York Mets, but there is reason to believe he can bounce back in 2020. Here is what I predict for Thor in the 2020 season.
This past season was not kind to New York Mets pitcher Noah Syndergaard as he struggled for the first time in his career. Between physically struggling on the mound in his worst season to date and getting caught up in who he wants to catch his games, it was not a pretty year for Thor.
Although Syndergaard was healthy the entire season and recorded his most games started and most innings logged, he struggled to a 4.28 ERA. That is not a terrible ERA by any means, but for a guy who is expected to be the second ace behind Jacob deGrom, it is not good enough.
Still under contract for the next two seasons, Syndergaard needs to prove he can stay healthy and that he is the dominant pitcher he was before the 2019 campaign. I expect big things from Syndergaard in 2020, as he should have a little extra motivation in him to prove he can stay healthy for a second straight year and that last year was a fluke statistically.
Thor’s Second All-Star Selection
In his second season back in 2016, Thor was elected to his first All-Star team and I see him adding his second nod this season. Coming off a somewhat disappointing 2019 season, Syndergaard will have all that much more fire under him to prove what he is capable of.
Similar to his 2017 season, I see Syndergaard coming out of the gate hard, but this time staying healthy and being elected to the midsummer classic. I expect Thor to have an ERA in the low to mid 2.00s by the All-Star game and towards the top of the league in strikeouts.
Throughout his career, he has been very effective in May and July, while also being pretty decent in April and March. If he can work out the kinks he has in June that is all the more reason to see him represent the Mets in the midsummer classic.
With every MLB team getting at least one player elected to the All-Star game, Syndergaard automatically has a 3.8% chance to be elected with 26 guys on the team.
On a serious note, Syndergaard does have a good chance to be elected as deGrom is the only guy who is almost an automatic to make it from the Mets. Looking at the rest of the starting pitching in the league and seeing some guys sign or be traded to the AL, and others start to fall off in their career, Syndergaard could make a jump and snag a spot on the All-Star roster.
First of Hopefully Many Cy Young Awards
I know some people may think this is a ridiculous stretch, but I believe there is a relatively fair argument to be made here. Coming up through the Mets system years ago, Syndergaard was one of the highest talked about prospects in baseball. Many people including myself believe he still has not reached his full potential and I think we will finally see it this year.
We have seen glimpses of Syndergaard’s full potential when he was elected to the All-Star team in 2016, threw 7 dominant innings in the wild-card game in 2016, and threw a complete-game shutout on the last day of the 2018 season. Outside of this past season, Syndergaard has been pretty dominant in his career so he should be able to bounce back nicely.
His main competition for the award will be two familiar faces, in teammate Jacob deGrom who won the last two, and division rival Max Scherzer who won it in 2016 and 2017 while finishing second and third the past two seasons. Scherzer fell off a little this past season as he fought injury and was in his age 34 season so Syndergaard could pass him this season.
deGrom will be entering his age 32 season and coming off back to back Cy Young awards with a high workload in each season so there is reason to believe he could regress, but he has been aging like a fine wine so I don’t see him regressing much if any.
With Syndergaard entering his prime years and Scherzer possibly starting to fall off a little, this could be Thor’s best time and chance to make a run at the award.
Contract Extension
This third prediction is also a bit of a stretch with Syndergaard being under contract through the 2021 season, but there is reason to believe it can happen. With the Steve Cohen deal expected to be finalized in the upcoming months and him going to want to spend money, it allows the team to lock up current players.
The Mets would buy-out Syndergaard’s last year of arbitration in 2021 and a few years of his free-agency if they decided to go this route. Even if it is only a 3-4 year deal it could still allow Syndergaard to hit free agency at a relatively young age since he is only entering his age 27 season.
He is also represented by CAA Sports which is Brodie Van Wagenen’s old agency, so if Wagenen is still employed after the ownership change he might want to lock up a former agent of his agency.
Recent extensions for starting pitchers such as deGrom’s 4-year $125 million deal, Chris Sales 5 year 145 million deal, and Miles Mikolas 4-year $68 million deal look like a good starting point. He does not seem to be worth a deGrom or Sale-like contract at this point just yet, but he is definitely worth more than the $68 million over 4 years that Mikolas received.
A deal averaging around $20-25 million for each season seems relatively reasonable. A deal in the range of 3-4 years and $70-100 million range seems fair for both sides.
If Syndergaard were to hit the open market he would for sure bring in more per year. Something along the lines of Patrick Corbin‘s 6-year $140 million deal, former teammate Zack Wheeler‘s 5-year $118 million deal, or Jon Lester‘s 6-year $155 million deal is a good starting point. Syndergaard could easily get a deal similar to these, but he has expressed a liking for the team and city so he could be willing to take a bit of a discount, while still getting paid nicely.
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Are there any other predictions you have for Thor in 2020?