New York Mets: Three Seth Lugo predictions for the 2020 season

Seth Lugo is expected to remain in the New York Mets bullpen for the 2020 season. What kind of a performance can we predict from him?

In the midst of the New York Mets bullpen troubles in 2019, one man stood out as a true beacon of hope: Seth Lugo. After a couple of years bouncing between the minor league and major league squads, Lugo had a breakout year in 2018, followed by another fantastic year in 2019 that solidified his status as “Mets relief ace.”

He was unquestionably the star of the bullpen in Flushing last year, posting an admirable 2.70 ERA with 104 strikeouts and just 16 walks in 80 innings of work. Lugo was rewarded for his mastery with the “NL Reliever of the Month” award in July, in which he did not allow a single earned run in 12 appearances while holding opponents to a microscopic .075 batting average.

The addition of Dellin Betances in December certainly helped shore up the Mets’ bullpen, but Lugo remains an integral part of the team this coming season. So, what will he bring to the mound in 2020? Here are my three predictions for how Lugo will perform this year.

WHIP, there it is

Among Lugo’s many remarkable stats from the 2019 season, his minuscule 0.900 WHIP stands out as perhaps the most impressive. Though Lugo did not pitch enough innings to qualify for the league leaders in this category, had he qualified, his WHIP would have been the best in the National League.

Mets fans who watched Lugo closely in 2019 will recall his remarkable ability to both strand baserunners and avoid putting baserunners on in the first place. This factor was especially important in the many high-leverage situations that Lugo pitched in throughout 2019. It will be difficult for him to replicate his 0.900 WHIP from 2019, but by continuing to expertly command his fastball and curveball, I believe that Lugo is in line for another WHIP under 1.000 next year.

This may depend on how many innings he pitches in 2020, and ideally, the better the Mets’ rotation shakes out, the fewer innings Lugo will pitch. The coaching staff generally agreed on a “less is more” policy regarding Lugo’s innings in 2019, and it worked in his favor. With a sweet spot of 80-100 innings of work in 2020, a healthy Lugo should produce an equally sparkling WHIP next season.

Saved by the ball

Despite Lugo’s success in the later innings last year, it seems like Edwin Diaz will have many chances to save games for the Mets in 2020. Every Mets fan under the sun is aware of how Diaz was the centerpiece of a blockbuster trade last offseason and failed to live up to expectations, to say the least. Still, with age and raw talent on his side, Diaz will likely begin the year as the team’s regular closer.

With that said, Lugo has proven himself to be trustworthy in high-leverage situations, so I would expect that he’ll get plenty of chances to save games in 2020.

Technically a save occurs when the closer finishes a game with a lead of three runs or fewer, but I would not be surprised if the Mets decide to use Diaz in games of three or two-run leads and go to Lugo with a one-run lead.

This should give Lugo at least 15 save opportunities in 2020, and I predict he’ll finish the year with around 12-15 saves. He had only six saves in 2019 and three in 2018, but if the Mets as a team are competitive from start to finish in 2020, every game will carry more weight, for players and fans alike.

The more important the game is, the better Lugo has proved to be, so a strong 2020 season for the Mets means that they’ll be trusting Lugo to finish some crucial games. He’s a throwback to closers of yesteryear when a two or even three-inning save was not such a ridiculous idea.