New York Mets: Three Marcus Stroman predictions for 2020

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - AUGUST 09: Marcus Stroman #7 of the New York Mets reacts after striking out Trea Turner #7 of the Washington Nationals to end the top of the third inning at Citi Field on August 09, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - AUGUST 09: Marcus Stroman #7 of the New York Mets reacts after striking out Trea Turner #7 of the Washington Nationals to end the top of the third inning at Citi Field on August 09, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 07: Marcus Stroman #7 of the New York Mets pitches during the second inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citi Field on September 07, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 07: Marcus Stroman #7 of the New York Mets pitches during the second inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citi Field on September 07, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

The 2020 season will be the first full year for Marcus Stroman as a member of the New York Mets. What should we expect from him?

New York native, Marcus Stroman, was brought back home last summer in a deal that surprised many teams across the league, and even Stroman himself initially. The New York Mets acquired the former first-round pick out of Duke University in exchange for their top two pitching prospects at the time, LHP Anthony Kay and RHP Simeon Woods-Richardson.

To say this deal ignited an exciting pennant run for the New York Mets team would be an accurate assessment; one that re-invigorated a discontent locker room and transformed this clubhouse from a 50-55, below .500 team before the deal into the playoff-contending 86-76 record they finished the season with; just 3 games out of the second Wild Card seed.

During that time, Stroman went 4-2 as a starter while posting a middling 3.77 ERA through 11 games. Not bad for someone getting reacquainted with life in New York City with the brighter lights and spotlights placed on professional athletes in this intense sports market.

Perfect third starter material

After being voted to the 2019 American League All-Star roster as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays before being traded midseason, the Mets and Stroman avoided arbitration by agreeing on a one-year, $12 million contract for the 2020 season, representing an increase from the $7.4 million he made last year. Prior to the start of the 2020 season, Mets fans should expect the young righty to be worth every bit of this deal.

Following the club’s decision not to pursue Zack Wheeler in free agency, it shouldn’t come as a surprise to see Marcus Stroman penciled in as the Mets third starting pitcher. Unlike Wheeler, whose arm strength and ball-control ability helped him overpower opposing batters at the plate, Stroman’s short stature and pitch sequencing are what differentiates him as a ground-ball pitcher from his former teammate.

Similarly, it’s what distinguishes him from his teammates Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard who headline the Mets rotation as bonafide power arms.

Stroman’s smooth delivery and overall swag on the mound make him the perfect fit for the position. By adding balance in the middle of their rotation and serving as a steady arm in the Mets rotation, he is a viable option to open or close any three-game series against opponents.

DENVER, COLORADO – SEPTEMBER 17: Marcus Stroman #7 of the New York Mets throws in the fifth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on September 17, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
DENVER, COLORADO – SEPTEMBER 17: Marcus Stroman #7 of the New York Mets throws in the fifth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on September 17, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

Double-Digit wins, an ERA near 3.00

The 2019 campaign culminated in a middling second-half performance for the 28-year-old compared to prior seasons; even though he was considered the highest-profile pitcher available at last year’s Trade Deadline. For someone the front office gave up so much talent for, in LHP Anthony Kay and RHP Simeon Woods-Richardson, Stroman’s performance did not exceed anyone’s expectations or transcend time.

Apart from his second, and arguably best, start for the Amazins’ against the Washington Nationals on August 9th, where he struck out nine over six frames and earned a no-decision for his efforts, his September performances diminished as his ERA rose from the 2.96 when he joined the club, to the 3.77 he finished with throughout his 11 starts in Queens.

However, it’s important to note that the Mets won 8 of those 11 games Stroman started even though only he went 4-2 during this stretch. For this reason, expect him to have 10+ wins and an ERA closer to 3.00 – mirroring his best year as a Toronto Blue Jay in 2017 when he went 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA in 33 starts.

I believe, since this is his contract year and his incentive levels are high, that he will improve from the sub .500, 10–13 win/loss record he finished up with this past year, posting a 3.22 ERA through 32 games split between Blue Jays and Mets:

6-11, 2.96 ERA through 21 games in Toronto
4-2, 3.77 ERA through 11 games in New York

He still finished with a 4.1 WAR, which may be a sign of bigger and better things to come in his first full season in orange and blue.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – AUGUST 21: Marcus Stroman #7 of the New York Mets delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Cleveland Indians at Citi Field on August 21, 2019 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – AUGUST 21: Marcus Stroman #7 of the New York Mets delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Cleveland Indians at Citi Field on August 21, 2019 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /

Stroman saves Van Wagenen’s tarnished trade reputation

Stroman is a free agent in 2021, and will have a lot to prove in 2020 if he wants to remain with the Mets, and (more importantly) get paid! Expect him to validate Brodie’s decision to trade the farm for him last Trade Deadline.

Although he is not known as a strikeout pitcher, he managed to strike out over 7 batters in 4 of his 11 games started with the Mets; with one of those starts striking out 9 over six innings. He finished 2019 with 159 strikeouts.

Should Stroman get help from the defense across the diamond (which has been a main concern for this club in recent seasons), I believe Stroman will justify Van Wagenen’s decision to give up the organization’s top two pitching prospects for him.

But then again, Stroman doesn’t need that much help. His steady defensive play on the mound earned him a Gold Glove in 2017, where he posted a .979 fielding percentage and recorded a career-high 37 assists.

He was ineligible for the award in 2018 due to falling short of pitching the required 142 innings by the team’s 142nd game requirement and was not a finalist for the award this past season. 2020 is the year for him to start fresh with his new team, and rebound on the mound.

While I think he will perform well enough to sign a long-term deal, it will be BVW’s decision whether or not to tender a long-term contract to Stroman that will ultimately determine if the 2019 trade was worth it.

Next. Three Brandon Nimmo predictions for 2020

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Regardless, Stroman is a solid pitcher and the Mets pitching staff is better with him in the rotation.

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