New York Mets: Three Jacob deGrom predictions for the 2020 season

MIAMI, FLORIDA - MAY 17: Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park on May 17, 2019 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
MIAMI, FLORIDA - MAY 17: Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park on May 17, 2019 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – AUGUST 05: Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets pitches against the Miami Marlins during their game at Citi Field on August 05, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – AUGUST 05: Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets pitches against the Miami Marlins during their game at Citi Field on August 05, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images) /

What does 2020 have in store for New York Mets ace Jacob deGrom?

Death, taxes, and an amazing year from Jacob deGrom feel like the only guarantees there are in life. The New York Mets ace has won back-to-back Cy Young Awards and should be a contender for yet another in 2020.

In those two seasons, deGrom has been the unquestioned ace of Major League Baseball. His story is still somewhat unique, suffering at the hands of the team he plays for. deGrom’s teammates haven’t always been the most helpful to his success.

I’m optimistic about 2020—at least when it comes to deGrom. Although I’m not going to boldly predict he’ll win a third Cy Young, I would like to make a few predictions for him official.

Jacob deGrom wins 19 games

You can’t always have what you want which is exactly why I don’t think deGrom will ever receive any justice in this world with a 20-win season. While highly possible, history tells us otherwise.

deGrom’s current highest win total for any season is 15. He reached this mark back in 2017 when he amazingly put together his worst ERA campaign at 3.53. The last two seasons have included only 21 total wins, but we all know the reason for this.

The Mets’ offense has not provided deGrom with the run support any pitcher of his talent deserves. This has led to far too many no-decisions and even some rough losses.

The offense doesn’t get all of the blame. Blown saves have also given deGrom a record much closer to .500 than anyone would expect. Hoping for the best in 2020, I’m predicting we see things even out a little more with deGrom racking up more wins than he ever has in a single-season before.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JULY 05: Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets pitches during the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citi Field on July 05, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JULY 05: Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets pitches during the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citi Field on July 05, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

Jacob deGrom gets a pair of shutouts

deGrom hasn’t thrown a shutout since 2016. It’s the lone one of his career, but all of that will change in year one under Carlos Beltran.

As deep as deGrom has been able to go in games, there have been times when he exited before getting an opportunity to go the distance. He didn’t even throw a complete game in 2019 let alone a shutout. This year, I’m predicting he gets two of them.

The Mets should be a little more competitive in 2020. This matters because they will ask deGrom to finish what he started. With a little more cache to call his own shots too, I think he could have some leverage in convincing the rookie manager to leave him in for one more frame.

There’s little doubt deGrom has the talent to throw nine shutout innings. A few factors must come into play to make it happen, though.

One consideration to make this even more possible depends on what type of baseballs MLB uses in 2020. Will we see the “juiced balls” of 2019 or the ones from 2018 when deGrom had a 1.70 ERA?

Just as likely, MLB goes one step too far in the other direction and we get a “Year of the Pitcher.”

Even without a single change to the equipment, I believe in deGrom enough to say we’ll see him exit the mound twice this season after completing a shutout. It’s about time the best pitcher in baseball does what the top arms do: completely obliterate the opponent for an entire nine innings.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – APRIL 26: Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets reacts with bases loaded during the second inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Citi Field on April 26, 2019 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – APRIL 26: Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets reacts with bases loaded during the second inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Citi Field on April 26, 2019 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images) /

Jacob deGrom sets an even higher strikeouts per nine rate

deGrom led the National League with 255 strikeouts this past season. It wasn’t a personal high. The 269 strike three calls he had the year prior was the highest of his six-season career.

One area deGrom did improve was in the strikeouts per nine. From 2018 to 2019, this number went up only slightly. deGrom reached 11.3 strikeouts per nine in 2019, up from the 11.2 strikeouts per nine one season earlier.

In 2020, I’m predicting deGrom has an even higher average of strikeouts per nine innings. He can do this by striking out more batters or tossing fewer innings. I would prefer to see the former, but a missed start or two could end up giving him a new high in this number for the upcoming campaign.

deGrom has yet to lead the league in this category. Max Scherzer had been the top guy in the National League for the past two years when deGrom was at the top of his game. At a rate of over 12 strikeouts per nine, it’s a high standard set by the Washington Nationals legend.

It’s still possible for deGrom. This past season, Gerrit Cole fanned batters at a rate of 13.8 per nine. While this historically high total may be too difficult to match or surpass, deGrom is only competing with himself in this prediction.

There’s nothing to suggest strikeouts will go down in the coming year. Batters still swing as hard and freely as ever.

If deGrom is able to set a new high for himself, he may also capture the Mets franchise total set by Dwight Gooden in 1984. In that magical year, Doc struck out 11.394 batters per nine which narrowly beats deGrom’s 11.250 from this past year.

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I fully expect more brilliance from deGrom in 2020. If we’re lucky, it all ends in late October.

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