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New York Mets: Four bold predictions for the offense in 2020

NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 8: Pete Alonso #20 of the New York Mets watches his solo home run during the seventh inning against the Colorado Rockies at Citi Field on June 8, 2019 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Adam Hunger/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 8: Pete Alonso #20 of the New York Mets watches his solo home run during the seventh inning against the Colorado Rockies at Citi Field on June 8, 2019 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Adam Hunger/Getty Images)
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WASHINGTON, DC – SEPTEMBER 03: Michael Conforto #30 of the New York Mets celebrates scoring on Brandon Nimmo #9 sac fly in the forth inning during a baseball game against the New York Mets at Nationals Park on September 3, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

At least four Mets offensive players will have WARs above 3.8 in 2020

My final prediction for what I believe we could see this Mets’ offense achieve in 2020 has a lot to do with the incredible potential of the collection of individual talent Sandy Alderson accumulated before he was forced to step down with health issues.

We all saw how a new generation of Mets youthful talent that came up through their farm system was able to provide a potent attack offensively during their 2019 campaign. Now with the potential of getting healthy contributions and years from the likes of Brandon Nimmo, Jed Lowrie, and Yoenis Cespedes to add to that, this Mets lineup has a chance to one of the most potent in all of baseball to start off the new decade.

And the best way we know how to calculate how valuable a player is based on their contributions in this new age of advanced baseball statistics is by using fWAR. WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is a metric that attempts to estimate a player’s total value and allows us to make comparisons among players with vastly different skillsets and defensive position playing abilities.

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It accounts for a player’s hitting, base running and defensive play at their respective positions and tries to calculate how valuable they are to a team by summing it all up under one number.

Ideally, solid everyday starters usually end up with a fWAR between 1.8 and 2.8 for an entire season. Above-average players generally finish with an fWAR between 2.8 and 3.8 and All-Star caliber players usually have an fWAR at the end of the season between 3.8 and 5.0.

Last season, the Mets had three offensive players who finished with a fWAR of 3.8 or better – Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, and Pete Alonso. Both Alonso and McNeil finished at 4.8 while Conforto finished with an fWAR just below 4.0.

Many Vegas handicappers predict the Mets will finish the 2020 year at least the top five in total team fWAR in all the majors if their starters can stay healthy for the majority of the season.

I myself, see no reason why the three names mentioned above couldn’t duplicate their impressive 2019 years at the plate and on the field and with the potential of having a healthy Brandon Nimmo start in center field for 130 games and one of either Yoenis Cespedes or Jed Lowrie play 120 or more game in the regular season, that the Mets could very well end up with five players hovering with fWARs close to or above 4.0 by the end of September.

Cespedes ended up with an fWAR around 6.0 in his magical 2015 year and followed that up with a 4.1 fWAR year in 2016 for the Mets. Lowrie put up a 4.0 and a 4.8 fWAR season with Oakland in 2017 and 2018 prior to joining the Mets last year. So it can be done.

If the Mets do accomplish such a feat this season and their starting pitching stays as durable as it did in 2019, they most likely will take the NL East in a tight race from the Braves.

Interestingly and worrisome enough is that Vegas projects both the Nationals and the Braves to also finish in the top five in total team fWAR for 2020 as well, so the Mets may still find themselves just a few games short of taking the NL East crown despite a massive improvement in production from their offense.

Three free agents the Mets missed out on this winter. Next

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Will these predictions come to fruition or not? Only time will tell.  What other major events can you foresee occurring with our offense this upcoming season?

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