New York Mets: Four bold predictions for the offense in 2020

Let’s get bold and make some predictions for the New York Mets offense in 2020.

As we enter this new decade of New York Mets baseball excited and hopeful we can make the postseason coming off an 86 win regular season in 2019, one of the few areas where we should feel confident we have an edge in the National League is our offense.

Last year, the Mets’ bats finished top-ten in the major leagues in hits, home runs, and total bases accumulated. The Amazins also finished just outside the top ten in total RBI and team slugging percentage. This was definitely a stark improvement over what our offense was in the several seasons prior.

But will this progression at the plate persist heading into 2020?

We all know that as new seasons begin, there will always come with it new questions and worries as to what us fans can expect from our team’s performance before the start of the regular season.

Fortunate (or unfortunate) for you the readers, this is where I will now strap on my thinking cap and attempt to try and come up with some answers as to what 2020 will have in store for us as far as our offense goes.

Or to better put it, some far-reaching answers that could very well come to fruition if everything breaks right for our beloved baseball team’s offense this upcoming year.

Yoenis Cespedes is the 2020 NL Comeback Player of the Year

Before you ask, the answer is no. I have not been drinking too much to start 2020.

With all that has recently come to light regarding Yoenis Cespedes‘ love of nature, ranching, and farm animals, it can be easy to see how such a freak accident could have occurred at such an inopportune time last May for the Cuban slugger.

Falling into traps that you set for wild boars would be devastating enough to endure even if you weren’t coming off of recovery from two heel surgeries just seven months prior. But for the beloved slugger, who carried us offensively on our way to the 2015 World Series, having this set back occur while recovering from these other two previous heel injuries is just brutal.

But there is some positive to take out of all this.

Prior to his freak ranching accident, Cespedes seemed to be determined to get back on to the field in 2019 and have an immediate impact at the plate. By all accounts and indications, it  seemed as though he was way ahead of schedule for recovery from his heel surgeries before his set back, which is definitely good news.

This is backed up by the fact that it was reported in several papers that, while in recovery after having both heel surgeries, Cespedes was able to get up in the mornings and walk around without “feeling the pain” he used to before his surgeries in late 2018. Keep in mind that he said this back in mid-February of 2019 according to the article.

Cespedes also reported back then that he would be able to start taking batting practice and participate in fielding drill activities by as early as mid-July. This target date incorporates the 8 to 10 month recovery period that Yo was expected to go through after his second heel surgery in early November of 2018.

The Mets figured it would take him about 4 to 6 weeks to get into total baseball shape from that point forward, which would have set his return to the Mets major league starting line up at around September of 2019.

Now if this freak wild boar accident occurred just six months after his second surgery (which is when it indeed did occur), then you figure Cespedes was probably recovering nicely and ahead of schedule up to that time considering he was able to tend to chores on his own ranch and deal with wild animals (I mean, you must be able to move somewhat well on your feet if you are able to set traps and tangle with wild boars by yourself, no?).

Again, to me, this was definitely a positive sign and a strong indication of a motivated and determined Cespedes, who seemed well on his way to a path of full recovery.

But we know that as a result of him falling into his own trap hole, the Cuban slugger then had to deal with a setback of a fractured ankle. Yet again, keep in mind, his previously injured heels seemed to have recovered nearly to full capacity by this point.

And by all accounts, most fractured ankles usually recover within 8 to 12 weeks, which means Cespedes should have fully recovered from this next predicament of his by mid-September 2019.

If that is indeed the case, this would fully explain the video that was posted by Mets minor league coach Endy Chavez – showing Chavez himself throwing batting practice to Yoenis Cespedes down in Florida this past November 2019. The footage from this video is certainly encouraging, as it shows Cespedes looking decent and nearly fully healthy as he takes some big batting practice cuts at the plate.

It also fully adds to the notion that Yoenis is both on the right and the fast track to being ready to start in left field for the Mets by late April to early May of 2020.

If this is the case, we can expect anywhere from 450 to 500 official at-bats from the Cuban slugger this upcoming season. If hungry, healthy and motivated, that can easily translate to 25 home runs, 80 RBI and a .270 batting average in the middle of an already stacked Mets lineup has guys that can get on base with ease. These stats should be enough for Cespedes to be in consideration for the Comeback Player of the Year Award.

Jed Lowrie gets over 450 plate appearances and hits around 30 doubles

If this Mets offense is to take the next step up in potency and impact for 2020, it’s got to see not only Yoenis Cespedes find his way back into the everyday starting line up, but it’s also got to see Jed Lowrie live up to his potential as well.

Both Lowrie and Cespedes were in the Witness Protection Program for nearly all of 2019 and both are going to have to finally show up if the Mets want to contend for an NL East division title in 2020.

Prior to last year’s non-existent performance, Lowrie was averaging 155 games started and over 580 official at-bats in 2017 and 2018 for the Oakland Athletics. In that time he was a doubles hitting machine who had the versatility to play multiple infield positions. With Todd Frazier now off the team and Dominic Smith more than likely about to get traded, this means that Lowrie will have more of a back up super-utility role off the bench for 2020.

With an ability to play second base, third base or shortstop, Lowrie will more than likely be one key injury away from being an everyday starter for some long period of time this upcoming season. If he himself can stay healthy and rebound from a dismal 2019, Lowrie can easily see himself playing the role Wilmer Flores used to play for the Mets not so many seasons ago.

Remember, Flores was used in the role of super-utility and got anywhere from 375 to 450 official at-bats a season playing all over the infield for the Mets. As a result of the 162 game grind teams go through over a six-month span, as well as the potential for Robinson Cano to struggle once again offensively in 2020 and possibly get benched, the opportunity to have a nice bounce-back season for Jed Lowrie may not be as far away as we think.

If Lowrie regains his offensive form in 2020, 25 to 30 doubles in 450 official at-bats is definitely a goal that will be well within his reach.

At least four Mets offensive players will have WARs above 3.8 in 2020

My final prediction for what I believe we could see this Mets’ offense achieve in 2020 has a lot to do with the incredible potential of the collection of individual talent Sandy Alderson accumulated before he was forced to step down with health issues.

We all saw how a new generation of Mets youthful talent that came up through their farm system was able to provide a potent attack offensively during their 2019 campaign. Now with the potential of getting healthy contributions and years from the likes of Brandon Nimmo, Jed Lowrie, and Yoenis Cespedes to add to that, this Mets lineup has a chance to one of the most potent in all of baseball to start off the new decade.

And the best way we know how to calculate how valuable a player is based on their contributions in this new age of advanced baseball statistics is by using fWAR. WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is a metric that attempts to estimate a player’s total value and allows us to make comparisons among players with vastly different skillsets and defensive position playing abilities.

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It accounts for a player’s hitting, base running and defensive play at their respective positions and tries to calculate how valuable they are to a team by summing it all up under one number.

Ideally, solid everyday starters usually end up with a fWAR between 1.8 and 2.8 for an entire season. Above-average players generally finish with an fWAR between 2.8 and 3.8 and All-Star caliber players usually have an fWAR at the end of the season between 3.8 and 5.0.

Last season, the Mets had three offensive players who finished with a fWAR of 3.8 or better – Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, and Pete Alonso. Both Alonso and McNeil finished at 4.8 while Conforto finished with an fWAR just below 4.0.

Many Vegas handicappers predict the Mets will finish the 2020 year at least the top five in total team fWAR in all the majors if their starters can stay healthy for the majority of the season.

I myself, see no reason why the three names mentioned above couldn’t duplicate their impressive 2019 years at the plate and on the field and with the potential of having a healthy Brandon Nimmo start in center field for 130 games and one of either Yoenis Cespedes or Jed Lowrie play 120 or more game in the regular season, that the Mets could very well end up with five players hovering with fWARs close to or above 4.0 by the end of September.

Cespedes ended up with an fWAR around 6.0 in his magical 2015 year and followed that up with a 4.1 fWAR year in 2016 for the Mets. Lowrie put up a 4.0 and a 4.8 fWAR season with Oakland in 2017 and 2018 prior to joining the Mets last year. So it can be done.

If the Mets do accomplish such a feat this season and their starting pitching stays as durable as it did in 2019, they most likely will take the NL East in a tight race from the Braves.

Interestingly and worrisome enough is that Vegas projects both the Nationals and the Braves to also finish in the top five in total team fWAR for 2020 as well, so the Mets may still find themselves just a few games short of taking the NL East crown despite a massive improvement in production from their offense.

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Will these predictions come to fruition or not? Only time will tell.  What other major events can you foresee occurring with our offense this upcoming season?