Mets: An offseason plan to bring a World Series victory to Queens

The World Series has ended, and the 2019 baseball season has come to a close. Now it is time to start working toward making the 2020 season end with a championship.

The New York Mets had a successful season in 2019 despite not making the playoffs. They won 86 games which is nine more games than they won in 2018. However, this offseason, if done right, could vault them to another level and be serious World Series contenders.

This is a pivotal offseason since the Washington Nationals have now won a championship. The pressure is now put on the Mets to spend the necessary money and make the right moves that will make them competitive enough to challenge for a World Series.

The Mets are losing some key free agents and some free agents around baseball could help the Mets achieve their goal. However, as it stands right now, without making any signings or trades the Mets will have very little room to work with unless they cross the luxury tax threshold.

As it currently stands, the Mets have approximately $187.8M committed to the luxury tax threshold after the projected arbitration money is added which amounts to $48.0M. This leaves them only about $20M to spend before the Mets hit the $208M luxury tax limit.

The New York Mets have never crossed the luxury tax threshold. This means that if they did, and they should, it would be a first-time offense and the tax would be 20% on the amount over the limit.

The following is the offseason plan that I believe the Mets should do implement to improve their team. This includes some free agent signings, some trades, some extensions, and yes going over the luxury tax threshold. Without going over it will be nearly impossible to make this team a World Series contender, so the Mets need to step up to the plate, act like the big market team they are and make some waves across baseball.

Trades

The Mets need to shed some money to be able to make the free-agent signings that are necessary to be serious World Series contenders. There are two trades that the Mets should consider that would unload salary and allow them to sign the necessary free agents. Both trades are more of salary dumps than trades to improve the farm team or the major league roster.

Mets trade Wilson Ramos to the Rangers for Emmanuel Chase.

Wilson Ramos was very good for the Mets in 2019 slashing .288/.327/.437/.727. However, Ramos is not a good defender by any stretch. He only caught 15% of would-be base stealers, which is below the 26% league average. He was also 97th in framing runs with -4.7, which is the number of runs saved from framing pitches.

In addition, Ramos hits way too many ground balls. For a guy who is a so strong as Ramos is, he only hit 14 home runs in 2019. This was mainly because of his 62.4% ground ball rate, which was a career-high. Just to put that into perspective, Ramos had 136 hits in 2019 and 103 of them were singles.

Keep in mind that Ramos has never really been able to stay healthy and play a full season. He did achieve that in 2019 but what are the odds he does that in 2020?

The Mets would be trading Ramos who is owed $9.5M in 2019 and obtaining Emmanuel Chase in return who is the 29th prospect in the Rangers system. He is a reliever that throws in the upper 90s and at times has an overpowering power slider. He needs to work on his command, but he did have a 2.31 ERA over 23.1 innings in the majors this season.

Since this is essentially a salary dump the Mets cannot get back any type of significant piece. However, Chase is enough of a lottery ticket to give up for an established catcher that the Rangers so desperately need. Another piece to this is that since Ramos is a rental and the Rangers could trade him at the deadline and possibly get more back for him than Chase.

Mets trade Jed Lowrie to the Angels for a minor league player

This is more of a salary dump than the Ramos trade. Jed Lowrie played in nine games in 2019 and not one in the field after being hurt for most of the season. He did not record a hit in 7 at-bats in 2019 and is owed $10M against the luxury tax in 2020. With the other improvements the Mets need to make, they cannot be handcuffed by Lowrie and his money.

Lowrie if healthy could be a good piece for the team even if he is a bench player used to pinch-hit and spell the younger guys but the money that is tied to him make him more valuable to the team in a trade if the Angels are willing to take most if not all of the money.

The Mets would not get much back from the Angels, but Joe Maddon has an affinity for veteran players and Lowrie fits that bill. He could slide into third base for the Angels or he can be a super-utility. Like Ramos, he is a rental so the Angel could sell him at the deadline to a team that needs a bench bat and get back more than they gave up for him.

By getting a minor league player back for Lowrie it gives the Mets another body in the minor leagues that could contribute if need be. Ideally, that player would be a pitcher or a center fielder but any minor league player would help. This would help the team if injuries occur but at the end of the day, this is just a salary dump so the Mets can sign the necessary free agents and not be handcuffed by dead money.

Free Agent Signings

The biggest hole on the team is the bullpen. It was terrible last year and needs to be better if the Mets want to be serious about 2020. However, there are other holes on the team, like the one created by the previous trade of Ramos. The Mets need to address Wheeler, third base, and now they need a catcher.

The free-agent signings will be a big telling point if the front office builds on the success of 2019 or if the Wilpons are still going to pinch their pennies together and make this team stay under the luxury tax. I choose to believe they will open their wallets and spend some, or a lot of money.

Yasmani Grandal – 3 years $45M

With the trade of Wilson Ramos, the Mets will need a new catcher and the likes of Rene Rivera and Tomas Nido will not cut it, especially on a win-now team. Last offseason the Mets and Grandal had mutual interest and were both motivated to strike a deal but the two sides could not come to terms. Could this offseason end differently?

The seven-year veteran had his option declined by the Milwaukie Brewers making him a free agent.

Grandal is more of a complete catcher than Ramos. In 2019 Grandal slashed .246/.380/.468/.848 with 28 home runs and 77 RBIs.

In addition, Grandal threw out 27% of would-be base stealers, which is above the 26% league average. His defense is just on a different level than Ramos. Grandal finished top three in baseball with 19.4 framing runs saved, according to Baseball Prospectus. This is a significant piece of the game that would pay immense dividends for not only the infield defense but also the pitching staff as a whole.

He is also a more balanced hitter, hitting balls equally on the ground and in the air, which is something Ramos has struggled with.

The deal that was being discussed in the 2018 offseason was four years for $60M, which is $15M AAV. Now one offseason later, three years for the same AAV seems fair. He would be getting more than Ramos would had he not been traded but Grandal is worth more money than Ramos due to his added capabilities as a hitter and a catcher defensively.

Anthony Rendon – 6 years $190M

This one is the big one, the one to put the team back on the map and Major League Baseball on notice.

Why can’t the Mets be considered a potential landing spot for Rendon?

Redon is a perennial MVP candidate, he is a gold glove caliber third baseman, and he is one of the best third baseman in the majors. He should be someone that every team tries to sign. He is worth the money and he is worth going over the luxury tax for.

Not convinced? Here is a blind player comparison:

From ages 23-26

Player A: .288/.366/.478/.844, 136 HRs, 546 RBI, 571 runs

Player B: .298/.381/.497/.878, 163 HRs, 676 RBI, 650 runs

These two players compare well through their age 29 seasons. Both are complete players hitting for both average and power.

Player A is Anthony Rendon and Player B is David Wright.

Imagine what the lineup would look like with Rendon slotted in there between Pete Alonso and Michael Conforto.

He would solidify the hot corner for the first time since David Wright and he would bring his gold glove defense which would not only help the team as a whole but also help Amed Rosario’s defense at shortstop.

Back during the 2019 season, it was reported that the Nationals offered Rendon a seven-year $210M extension that he turned down. There are many reasons he could have turned it down, the biggest being the amount of deferred money the Washington Nationals were going to give him.

I think the rejection of that deal had more to do with the deferrals than the value of the contract. If that is true it bodes well for the Mets.

Rendon is going to be looking for Bryce Harper money, but no team is going to give him that kind of money and he will be closer to the $200M mark. I think that six years $190M with a $31.67M AAV is fair for Rendon and I think that with the rest of the players on this team and the addition of Beltran, the Mets may be an attractive destination for Rendon.

Juan Lagares – 2 years $4M

The longtime Met returns but on a much more reasonable salary. Juan Lagares has not been a good offensive player since he won his gold glove back in 2014 but he still has some of his defensive ability left.

Centerfield is a very barren position this year on the free-agent market.

The price for Starling Marte is going to be way too high so the Mets will have to settle for a free agent. Lagares is nothing more than a fourth, maybe a fifth outfielder. The contract reflects that and if he can come in as a defensive replacement then even better.

With the unknown status of Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets need to add an outfielder due to their dearth of outfield depth in the minor leagues. Lagares is a body but has had limited success in New York.

For the money it would take to sign him, assuming no one seriously overpays for his services, it is worth it to take the flier on him.

Pitching Free Agent Signings

Zack Wheeler – 4 years $80M

Zack Wheeler is going to have a lot of suitors especially his hometown Atlanta Braves. The team must sign Wheeler because he has proven that he can pitch in New York, he has proven that he can be an above-average pitcher, and he makes the rotation much better than a cheaper option would.

The Mets ideally want to keep the rotation intact for as long as possible. They extended Wheeler the $17.8M qualifying offer so they are comfortable paying him that amount of money at a minimum. To offer him $2.2M more per year and keep the rotation intact for much longer seems to be a no brainer.

Signing Wheeler is the most important move the Mets have to make this offseason. If he does not accept the qualifying offer and wants something more long term it needs to get done.

Without Wheeler in the rotation, it loses a significant leg. Steven Matz has not shown to date to be the same caliber pitcher as Wheeler and would be out of his weight class as a four starter. Any reasonably priced starter on the free-agent market is going to be either more expensive than Wheeler or not as good as him.

If this team is truly in win-now mode, then this is a no brainer because no win-now team lets a pitcher like Wheeler walk out the door.

Will Harris – 2 years $6M

The Mets need at least one bullpen arm to ensure that the deficiencies that occurred in 2019 do not carry over to 2020.

Will Harris is a very underrated bullpen arm having most recently pitched for the Houston Astros. He was a late bloomer, not making his MLB debut until 27 years of age but his numbers speak for themselves. For his career he has pitched to a 2.36 ERA over 396.1 innings and has struck out 9.6 batters per nine.

Since the Mets are spending all this money on the above free agents, they need to find more of a bargain-value free agent for the bullpen. When considering his numbers out of the bullpen one would expect him to command a lot of money. However, Harris is going to be 35 years old on Opening Day, so he is not going to get a lengthy deal lucrative deal like Will Smith or Kenley Jansen would.

This works in the Mets’ favor. Two years for Harris at his advanced age is reasonable and the money may be a little lite but an extra million or two will not make a difference to the Mets because it is really only 20% of that million or two since the payroll will end up being over the luxury tax.

Brad Brach – 1 year $3M with a $3M option for 2021

A familiar face that some fans do not realize is a free agent. He came to the Mets after the Chicago Cubs released him in the beginning of August.

He pitched well for the Mets in 2019 finishing with a 3.68 ERA over 14.2 innings. Brach is a bullpen arm that has pitched in New York and had success so if he does not command a lot of money the Mets should absolutely go after him.

On a one-year deal, Brach would be expendable enough that if it did not work out for some reason the Mets could move on, but it also gives the Mets flexibility only having him for one year guaranteed with the potential for two if he pitches well.

Alex Wood – Minor League Deal

The Mets need starting pitching depth. Brodie Van Wagenen said it at the press conference of Carlos Beltran, and he is correct. The Mets cannot go into 2020 with Walker Lockett and Corey Oswalt as their depth.

David Peterson will help since he will be closer to the majors but signing Alex Wood would give the Mets an experienced starting pitcher waiting in the wings in case one of the main five get injured.

Extensions

The Mets have some players that deserve extensions. Some of them are young, still very controllable players like Pete Alonso and Amed Rosario. Some are closer to free agency like Marcus Stroman and some are players who should get an extension because they are part of the core and the team should want to keep them long term like Michael Conforto.

Unfortunately, not everyone can get an extension in the same offseason. However, there are two players on the Mets who deserve contract extensions. Marcus Stroman and Michael Conforto.

Michael Conforto – 6 years $100M

One of these years Michael Conforto will have a second half of the season for an entire season. He is one of the best young outfielders in the National League and is a key part of the Mets young core.

For the last three years, Conforto has consistently been a 3-4 WAR player and is still getting better. In 2019 he set a career-high for walk rate, 13%, and continues to be near the top of the league in wRC+ and OPS.

From the various reports out there, the sense is that the Mets and Conforto have a mutual interest in an extension if the deal is good for both sides.

Michael Conforto is such an underrated part of this team and it is incredible how many fans would trade him for players far inferior to him.

Six years would keep him under control through his age 32 season, buying out his first four years of free agency. Most players look forward to hitting free agency but Conforto gets a fair deal that gives him $16.67M on an AAV basis.

Could he get more on the open market? Maybe. He will not be a free agent until after the 2021 season which is when the current CBA runs out. There will be major changes to it and who knows what the free-agent landscape will look like then. By taking this deal he is guaranteeing himself a good amount of money, which is a good value for what he has done so far in his career and what he is expected to do over the length of the extension.

Marcus Stroman – 4 years $90M

When the Mets traded two of their top prospects for Marcus Stroman this past July there was a level of expectation, since he was going to be a free agent after the 2020 season, that the Mets would sign him to an extension.

Stroman did struggle with the Mets in 2019, however, he did turn it around the last month of the season pitching to a 2.91 ERA in September. As a number three starter in this talented Mets rotation, he does not have to pitch like an ace. If he did that would be excellent but he just needs to be the Marcus Stroman that made the Mets trade for him back in July.

Another component of this is Stroman brings so much to the table regardless if he is starting that day or not. The energy he brings to the team on and off the mound is very representative of the energy Jose Reyes brought to the team during his first tenure with the Mets.

The contract is tempting enough to sign and stay in New York instead of trying to get more on the open market, but the Mets should sign him sooner rather than later, so the price does not go up. Time is of the essence.