Mets 2018-2019 Offseason: A second chance to get things right

The biggest mistakes made by the New York Mets began with a poor offseason by first-year general manager Brodie Van Wagenen. Let’s revisit what went wrong and how it could have gone right.

Despite lofty expectations to begin the season, the New York Mets are fighting for a winning record. While they are very much in the four-team race to the top, the National League East division has been all Phillies and Braves early on, with the Mets and Nationals fluctuating around .500 for most of the season.

Brodie Van Wagenen has made a number of acquisitions to shake up the roster this past offseason. If given the opportunity to go back, what should he have done differently?

It should be noted that the acquisitions listed below only reflect the 2018-19 offseason and to not show roster moves made after opening day (aside from the player’s current status).

First, let’s review the moves made by first-year GM Brodie Van Wagenen

Additions:

25 Man Roster

RHP Edwin Díaz, Trade

RHP Jeurys Familia, Free Agent

C Wilson Ramos, Free Agent

SS Adeiny Hechavarria, Free Agent

OF Carlos Gomez, Free Agent

IF/OF J.D Davis, Trade

Injured List

INF Jed Lowrie, Free Agent

LHP Luis Avilan, Free Agent

LHP Justin Wilson, Free Agent

2B Robinson Canó, Trade

40 Man

RHP Walker Lockett, Trade

LHP Hector Santiago, Free Agent

INF Danny Espinosa, Free Agent

OF Rajai Davis, Free Agent

LHP Ryan O’Rourke, Free Agent

Non-40 Man

C Rene Rivera, Free Agent

C Devin Mesoraco, Free Agent

OF Gregor Blanco, Free Agent

RHP Arquimedes Caminero Free Agent

OF Rymer Liriano Free Agent

INF Sam Haggerty, Trade

No Longer in Organization

RHP Kyle Dowdy, Rule 5

OF Keon Broxton, Free Agent

Subtractions:

3B David Wright, Retired

IF Jose Reyes, Free Agent

OF Austin Jackson, Free Agent

LHP A.J. Ramos, Free Agent

RHP Jerry Blevins, Free Agent

C Jose Lobaton, Free Agent

IF Wilmer Flores, Free Agent

OF Jay Bruce, Traded

OF Jarred Kelenic, Traded

RHP Anthony Swarzak, Traded

RHP Gerson Bautista, Traded

RHP. Justin Dunn, Traded

3B T.J. Rivera, Released

RHP Rafael Montero, Outrighted/Free Agent

INF Phillip Evans, Outrighted/Free Agent

RHP Jamie Callahan, Outrighted/Free Agent

SS Jack Reinheimer, Waivers

RHP Jenrry Mejia, Released

C Kevin Plawecki, Traded

SS Luis Santana, Traded

OF Ross Adolph, Traded

C Scott Manea, Traded

How have the new acquisitions panned out for Van Wagenen so far?

C Wilson Ramos: 69 GP, 1.1 WAR

2B Robinson Canó: 54 GP, -0.8 WAR

RHP Jeurys Familia: 29 GP, -1.0 WAR

RHP Edwin Díaz: 31 GP, 0.5 WAR

SS Adeiny Hechavarria: 36 GP, 0.2 WAR

IF/OF J.D. Davis: 66 GP, 0.0 WAR

OF Carlos Gomez: 31 GP, -0.4 WAR

LHP Luis Avilan: 11 GP, -0.3 WAR

LHP Justin Wilson 10 GP, 0.0 WAR

LHP Hector Santiago 8 GP,-0.1 WAR

LHP Ryan O’Rourke 2 GP, 0.1 WAR

RHP Walker Lockett 1 GP -0.3 WAR

*INF Jed Lowrie

*INF Danny Espinosa

*(Has not played)

After reviewing all moves made by Van Wagenen this offseason, which moves should have been made?

Mistake #1

Mets trade OF Jay Bruce, RHP Gerson Bautista, RHP Anthony Swarzak, RHP Justin Dunn, OF Jarred Kelenic to the Seattle Mariners for 2B Robinson Canó, RHP Edwin Díaz, and cash.

The first glaring error the Mets made this offseason was the trade with the Seattle Mariners. While Díaz has performed well in comparison to the rest of the bullpen, he is still far below his 2018 season, where he posted a 1.96 ERA in 73.1 innings while recording a Major League-leading 57 saves. His slider is not as sharp and while he is still racking up strikeouts (15.08 K/9), he is still off from his previous season.

Robinson Canó, on the other hand, has been nothing but disappointment for the Mets in 2019.  After re-aggravating his left quad, Canó was placed on the disabled list yet again. Canó has only appeared in 46 games for the Mets this season.

In 215 plate appearances, he is batting .223 with a career-worst 19.5 K% and owns a .636 OPS with RISP. Canó has not held up defensively and one particular play injured OF Michael Conforto.  Canó’s constant IL stints and refusal to run out ground balls do not pair well with his on-field performance and to make matters worse, Canó is still under contract through 2023, Canó’s age 40 season.

The Mets owe Canó $120 million during this time (not including the $20 million from Seattle).

Not only does this move cripple the Mets financially, but it also depleted their farm system.  Their 2018 first round pick Jarred Kelenic was recently promoted to A+ during his first full professional season.

Kelenic hit .309 with 11 HR and 29 RBI while also swiping 7 bases. Kelenic is just 19 years old.

Justin Dunn, 2016 first round pick out of Boston College, should have been viewed as a future rotation piece and Mets fans should agonize over losing this talented arm.

Dunn features a fastball that touches 99 at times with a sweeping slider that devastates hitters. His changeup and curveball are a work in progress. Drawing early comparisons to the late Yordano Ventura, Dunn is an electric flamethrower in a slim 6’2 frame. After reaching AA with the Mets in 2018, Dunn owns a 3.46 ERA over 65 innings in AA with a 4.05 K/BB ratio.

The Mets now lose the ability to add Dunn to their talented staff either as an additional piece or as a replacement if the Mets were to trade a starter or lose a starter via free agency.

Lastly, this trade hurts the Mets’ ability to make impact trades. Dunn and Kelenic were drafted with the intentions of being developed as cornerstone players. After this trade, you also lose the ability to use them to make a major splash if needed either at the trade deadline or further down the road. This would mean trading for an impact player would be more costly as the Mets have fewer top prospects to deal.

Most GMs would have either given up prospects or taken on a large salary to acquire Díaz.  Brodie Van Wagenen managed to do both; this trade took advantage of a rookie GM and while it is still early, can haunt the Mets for years to come.

Now that the Mariners debacle is out of the way, it is time to reconstruct the Mets offseason moves.

Here are the moves that Brodie Van Wagenen made that help the franchise and will be made again in this do-over of the 2018 offseason:

Mets sign FA C Wilson Ramos to a 2-year $19 million contract.

Van Wagenen actually made the right call here by signing the best available catcher in a weak market, while avoiding trading major assets for J.T. Realmuto. Thus far, Ramos is tied for 3rd on the team in HRs (9) and his .279 average is second best among MLB catchers.

His salary is much more tolerable than the 18.25 million that the Milwaukee Brewers owe to Yasmani Grandal this season. Ramos finally gives the Mets an offensive weapon behind the plate.

Mets sign FA RHP Jeurys Familia to a 3-year $30 million contract.

Jeurys Familia has been an inconsistent disaster this season. In 27.2 innings, he owns a 7.81 ERA and has already allowed 5 home runs. He allowed 3 all of last season.

Despite all this, we are still going to sign him to a 3-year deal. Familia was a key component to the Mets’ success during the 2015 and 2016 seasons. The 2016 All-Star shares the record for the most saved recorded by a Mets closer in a single season.

Familia is still vital to the success of the bullpen and re-signing him gives the Mets a very good late-inning option with closing experience.

Mets trade C Kevin Plawecki to Cleveland Indians for RHP Walker Lockett and 2B Sam Haggerty.

Walter Lockett has held his ground in AAA for the Syracuse Mets this season, pitching to a 3.81 ERA in the hitter-friendly International League, while only walking 3 batters in 26 innings. While his stuff isn’t overpowering, Lockett has been successful and should be seen as an emergency starter if the Mets ever need one. His MLB debut is one to forget, however (2.1 IP, 6 R, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 K).

Sam Haggerty is just 25 at is still an unknown at this point. He owns a .832 OPS in AA Binghamton but he shouldn’t be expected to play above AAA this season. Overall, solid trade that we are going to remake.

Mets sign FA LHP Luis Avilan to a 1-year $1.6 million contract.

Van Wagenen signs an experienced lefty in a razor-thin relief pitching market at a very low cost. Avilan has had Major League success in the past; therefore, we make this deal.

Mets sign FA SS Adeiny Hechavarria to a 1-year $3 million contract.

Hechavarria came us from AAA sooner than expected for the Mets.  Hechavarria is known for his glove yet he already has homered 4 times in 90 at-bats. The 30-year-old has come up clutch several times in late game situations this season and is a steady backup and mentor for the young Amed Rosario.

Even though a few of Brodie’s acquisitions made the cut, there are several he should have made to fortify his team in 2019.

P.S. There is no Manny Machado on this list.  Sorry.

Mets acquire RHP Tanner Roark from the Washington Nationals for IF Dilson Herrera and cash

As much as I like Dilson Herrera, the Nationals were in need of middle infield help before they ultimately signed 2B Brian Dozier. Considering that Tanner Rainey (the pitcher acquired from Cincinnati in the real trade) was a relatively low-level prospect, this would be a fair price for Washington.

No one could have predicted the early success of Jason Vargas. After a rocky start to the season, Vargas has settled in nicely. After his April 13 start, Vargas hasn’t allowed more than 4 ER, posting a 2.20 ERA during that span. Vargas recently threw a complete game shutout against the San Francisco Giants.

That being said, Vargas is 36 years old and his 85 mph average fastball velocity leaves reason to doubt that he will be successful heading into the latter part of his career.

Trading for Roark would have provided the Mets with a quality arm to fortify the back end of the rotation. Roark, 32, is owed $10 million in 2019 and will enter free agency at the end of the season. Signing the right-hander would have little financial risk since he is a free agent. Roark at the very least could have been a placeholder for future flamethrowers Justin Dunn (who we don’t trade) and Anthony Kay. Roark is a 19 Wins Above Replacement player for his career.

Mets sign FA UTIL Marwin Gonzalez to a 2-year $21 million contract

Brodie Van Wagenen has made it clear that he values versatility. With other options including Marwin Gonzalez and Josh Harrison available, Van Wagenen opted to trade for J.D. Davis instead. Davis has surged the Mets offense with power; Davis has homered 8 times in 66 games, many of them coming in clutch situations. He has an astounding OPS of 1.023with 2 outs and runners in scoring position.

Despite a recent stretch where he was hitting .350, Davis has been inconsistent at the plate all season, struggling to hit for average and his -3 DRS (defensive runs saved) should concern Mickey Callaway and the coaching staff. Davis has an above average arm but below average glove at both third and the outfield and a much more reliable (and expensive) option would have been super-utility man Marwin Gonzalez.

Gonzalez was one of the more sought-after free agents because of his defensive versatility to go with his offensive prowess. Gonzalez ultimately signed with the Twins for 2 years and $21 million. The switch-hitting Gonzalez could have served as a backup infielder at second base, third base, shortstop, and could have filled in anywhere in the outfield; he would have played a very similar role to Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis on the current roster.

During his last 30 games, Gonzalez is slashing .305/.374/.534 with the Twins while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense at 6 positions. Gonzalez is making $12 million in 2019.

Our work is not complete yet. Finally, it’s time to revamp the bullpen.

Mets sign FA P Craig Kimbrel to a 2-year $40 million contract.

Now this one’s a little bit more complicated. Since the Red Sox extended the $17.9 million qualifying offer to Kimbrel, they would gain a compensation draft pick if he signs elsewhere. If the Mets signed Kimbrel, they would most likely lose $500 thousand in international bonus cash by exceeding the luxury tax threshold. They would have only had to part with a draft pick past the fourth round. This would allow the Mets to keep their first 3 draft picks, all of whom are ranked inside the top 40 in their draft class.

As for future salary, Kimbrel would only be under contract for one more season. For the rest of the payroll, Metsblog.com weighed in on the Yoenis Cespedes insurance:

As far as the Mets, they will be getting roughly 70 percent of the $29 million owed this season to Yoenis Cespedes (out for the season after recently having ankle surgery) back via the insurance policy they have on him.

This would bring Cespedes’ 2019 salary down to around $8.7 million for the 2019 season. Although Kimbrel was initially seeking a 6-year $100 million contract, he ultimately settled for a 3-year deal worth $45 million with the Chicago Cubs.

Kimbrel has been the best closer in baseball this decade and last season became the fastest pitcher to record 300 saves. A Kimbrel/Familia/Melancon trio would have formed a 3-headed closing monster that emulates many other winning teams. The Mets would’ve had the ability to shorten their games to 6 innings; with their starting staff, this bullpen would have made the staff 12-13 deep and arguably the best in the majors. The Mets currently have the 3rd highest bullpen ERA (5.36) and the 6th highest opponent batting average (.266) in the National League.

Mets sign LHP Tony Sipp to a 2-year $2.5 million contract.

We are going to construct this deal the same way the Washington Nationals constructed theirs. Sipp signed with the Nationals on a 2-year deal. Sipp will earn $1 million in year one; year two has a $2.5 million mutual agreement with a $250 thousand buyout option. This deal is creative and we are going to offer this to Tony Sipp. After losing Jerry Blevins in free agency, signing Sipp would give the Mets a true left-handed specialist.

Sipp held left-handed batters to a .191 average while giving up only 4 2Bs and 1 HR during 76 plate appearances. Sipp, 35, held opponents to an astonishing .200 batting average and averaged 9.8 K/9 in 2018.

Sipp would fit nicely in a struggling Mets bullpen and would have been more productive than signing fellow left-handers Justin Wilson, Hector Santiago, and Ryan O’Rourke, all of whom have combined for 17.2 IP this season.

Now that we have our new acquisitions, how does the roster and payroll shake out to begin the new 2019 season?

New 2019 Lineup

1. 2B Jeff McNeil, L
2. CF Adam Jones, R
3. RF Michael Conforto, L
4. 1B Pete Alonso, R
5.  C Wilson Ramos, R
6. 3B Todd Frazier, R
7. LF Brandon Nimmo, L
8. P
9. Amed Rosario, S

Bench

1. CF Juan Lagares, R
2. C Tomas Nido, R
3. SS Adeiny Hechavarria, R
4. UTIL Marwin Gonzalez, S
5. IF/OF Dominic Smith, L

Starting Rotation

1. RHP Jacob deGom
2. RHP Noah Syndergaard
3. RHP Zack Wheeler
4. LHP Steven Matz
5. RHP Tanner Roark

Bullpen

LHP Daniel Zamora

RHP Seth Lugo

RHP Robert Gsellman

LHP Tony Sipp

RHP Mark Melancon

RHP Jeurys Familia

*LHP Craig Kimbrel

*(Closer)

2019 Current Payroll:  $159,586,428.00 

*2019 New Payroll: ~$193,256,000

Want your voice heard? Join the Rising Apple team!

Write for us!

How many games do you think the Mets would have won with this roster? What would you have done differently?