Mets “least valuable” first-round pick in team history is Dominic Smith

At least according to WAR, Dominic Smith has been the least valuable first-round draft pick in New York Mets history.

Dominic Smith isn’t the worst first-round pick the New York Mets have ever had. Unlike many, he actually reached the big leagues. For this, we can never call him the worst first-round pick in franchise history.

Smith does, however, carry with him the worst MLB WAR. At -1.8, he beats everyone else in being the least valuable to actually reach the majors.

Through his first 105 MLB games, Smith is hitting .210/.259/.406. With a stick in his hand, he’s below replacement level. When he’s wearing a glove, he’s apparently even worse.

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The Mets have yet to give Smith a defined position and this issue should continue into 2019. He’s an ex-first baseman with no real opportunity to play the position regularly. Their abundance of options on the major league roster plus Pete Alonso in the minors will only further hurt his defensive numbers and make him look even worse. The pair are competing this spring for the job with an edge given to Alonso for the long-term because of his ungodly power abilities.

You don’t need to be an analytical genius or have an understanding of WAR to know Smith has struggled against major league pitching. Though he has averaged 22 home runs per 162 games, he’s only averaging 48 runs and 57 RBI in that same time.

Smith isn’t getting on base and that’s the major issue. Many modern statistics, WAR included, favor players who find a way to meet the first baseman or run past him. Smith has yet to master this skill, settling instead for walks of shame back to the dugout.

The Mets have had plenty of misses in the first round over the last 20 years. It’s not uncommon. The MLB Draft is incredibly unpredictable.

Over the last 365 days, however, they’ve parted with several first-round picks. Matt Harvey was traded last year and Kevin Plawecki departed New York this winter. Gavin Cecchini managed to clear waivers and will remain with the organization; at least for now.

The Mets dealt their highest draft pick since 2004, Jarred Kelenic, along with fellow first-rounder Justin Dunn in the trade with the Seattle Mariners. First-round draft picks are dropping like flies in this organization.

To their credit, every first-round pick they made between 2010 and 2014 has played in the major leagues. Unfortunately, since 2011, only Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto have made any long-lasting positive impact. Those still in the minor leagues will look to add their names to this brief list.

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The longer Smith plays and struggles, the worse his value will look. Although he’ll never go down as the biggest first-round bust in franchise history, he may end up as the most frustrating to stick around in the big leagues. He’ll hope to change this perception in 2019 as he fights for big league playing time and a chance to look like a better than a replacement level player.

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