Mets Rotation: Better pitching options than Jason Vargas

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WASHINGTON, DC – SEPTEMBER 20: Jason Vargas #40 of the New York Mets pitches in the third inning during a baseball game against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on September 20, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) /

New York Mets fifth starter Jason Vargas is coming off of a horrendous 2018 campaign. Upgrading with internal or external options would greatly benefit the Mets.

The New York Mets‘ 2018 campaign was disappointing given the expectations going into the season. However, the one major bright spot of the team was the starting pitching.

Zack Wheeler, who started the season in AAA Las Vegas and has had trouble staying healthy for an entire season, put up a dominant performance down the stretch. In the second half of the season, he had a 1.68 ERA and went 9-1.

Noah Syndergaard spent some time on the Injured List but had himself a nice 2018 season. He had a 3.03 ERA, went 13-4 and threw two complete games. In his first, which was also the first of his career, he allowed one run, two hits and struck out 11 against the San Francisco Giants. In his second, he shut out the Miami Marlins to bring the Mets’ season to a close.

Steven Matz, who has also had trouble staying healthy in the past, put together a full season for the first time in his career. Over the 30 games he started in 2018, he had a 3.97 ERA and a 1.247 WHIP.

Of course, the most dominant pitching performance for the 2018 Mets came from Jacob deGrom. He led the league in ERA at 1.70, had 269 strikeouts, a 0.912 WHIP, and allowed only 10 home runs in 217 innings pitched. His performance last season earned him the National League Cy Young award.

The one outlier in the starting rotation was Jason Vargas. The Mets signed him in February of 2018 after the start of Spring Training, and he struggled to begin the season. He had an 8.60 ERA in the first half and finished the season at 5.77. He had a 1.413 WHIP and allowed 18 home runs in 92 innings.

Vargas has an average fastball velocity of 86.4 mph, which is another outlier in a rotation with an average of 94.5 mph. Velocity on the fastball isn’t everything as long as pitches are mixed well, but Vargas had such a terrible start to the season that this has become an aspect of his game highly criticized by fans.

Manager Mickey Callaway has committed to Vargas as the fifth starter for 2019. He cited Jason’s improvement in the second half of last season and believes that if he had participated in a full spring he would’ve come out of the gate stronger.

However, there are some moves the Mets can make to replace him in the rotation if he continues to perform poorly. Some of these potential moves involve rotating players currently on the roster, and some involve signing available free agents. Some options are more practical than others, but they all make some sort of sense.

WASHINGTON, DC – SEPTEMBER 21: Seth Lugo #67 of the New York Mets pitches against the Washington Nationals during the eighth inning at Nationals Park on September 21, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) /

Current Roster Options

If the Mets were to replace Vargas as the fifth starter in the rotation, there are a few players on the current roster who could seamlessly fill his spot.

Moving someone who is currently on the team into the position would likely be the easiest option at this point, with Spring Training already underway. It would also be the preferred option for management, being that the team wouldn’t have to go out and spend money.

When it comes to shifting a player into the rotation, the first name that comes to mind is righty long-reliever Seth Lugo. Out of the entire bullpen, he has the most experience in a starting role and has seen his share of success in it.

Lugo came up to the Major Leagues in 2016, a year that brought season-ending injuries to Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey and Steven Matz, and he exceeded expectations. He was an essential part of the late-season run to the National League Wild Card game.

He also impressed while pitching for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic that offseason, winning games against Venezuela and the United States.

Last season, he was moved to the bullpen and pitched well in his new role. He made 54 appearances and had a 2.66 ERA with 103 strikeouts. He made five spot starts on the season, including an impressive June win against the New York Yankees.

As it currently stands, Seth Lugo is the best candidate to move into the fifth spot of the rotation. This move would leave the Mets with only one lefty starter, but this is something the team has done in recent years.

Another righty that can take over Vargas’s role is 25-year-old Corey Oswalt. He didn’t have the greatest 2018 season, with an ERA of 5.85 and a negative WAR in 12 starts. However, he showed some signs of potential along the way.

Oswalt was the starting pitcher in the Mets’ 24-4 win over the Philadelphia Phillies, and he allowed only one hit over three innings in his next start. In his first spring training start of 2019, he went two innings allowing no runs, no hits and he struck out two batters.

He is young and obviously has to improve off of last year, but Corey Oswalt could be an option to replace Vargas if needed mid-season.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JULY 10: Gio Gonzalez #47 of the Washington Nationals pitches in the first inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field on July 10, 2016 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /

Free Agent Replacements

While the Mets are unlikely to make any more moves this offseason, there are a few free agents still on the market who would make perfect replacements for Vargas in the rotation.

The free agent who makes the most sense for the Mets to sign is lefty Gio Gonzalez. A long-time member of the Washington Nationals, Gonzalez has been an effective pitcher over his career, and his numbers are even better in Citi Field.

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Against the Mets in their home ballpark, Gonzalez has a 1.75 ERA in 108 innings, along with 99 strikeouts and a 1.000 WHIP.

This signing makes too much sense to not happen. Gonzalez has been lights-out at Citi Field over his career and would be relatively cheap compared to other left-handed free agents. Earlier in the offseason, there were rumors about a possible deal between the Mets and Gonzalez, but there was a disagreement regarding the length of the contract, and discussions were ended.

Another free agent that would be a perfect fit in the Mets’ rotation is Dallas Keuchel. However, it is extremely unlikely that the team will spend the money to sign him.

Spotrac.com projects Keuchel’s market value to be roughly $22.3 million per year over five years. Signing him would still leave the Mets well under the luxury tax threshold for 2019, but it would put the team over its self-imposed budget.

Keuchel is a left-handed pitcher who has won an American League Cy Young award and has a plethora of postseason experience. His addition would put the Mets’ starting rotation over the edge.

He is coming off a 12-11 season in which he had 153 strikeouts and a 3.74 ERA. He would make a fantastic replacement in the rotation, leaving the Mets with no weak spots, but this is unlikely to come about.

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The Mets have committed to Jason Vargas as the fifth starter in the rotation. Many fans are unhappy with this, but for all we know he can completely turn around this season. In the case that he doesn’t, the four players previously mentioned would be the most suitable replacements.

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