Mets Matt Harvey Conundrum: What if they traded him after 2015?

The New York Mets were heading for a period of sustained success, brimming with the hope of prospects becoming stars. However, the perceived starting point of this era was the pinnacle of its success. Matt Harvey’s drastic drop-off is the key to this downfall. What if they traded him after 2015?

The onset of Matt Harvey‘s thoracic outlet syndrome was the end of his New York Mets success. However, there were rampant rumors linking the dynamic pitcher to the Red Sox. While nothing was ever close, the idea of a trade such as this is very interesting.

If the Mets had traded Harvey for young position players and signed another starter, they would have been more well-off. The 2016 free agent class was impressive, especially in terms of the starting pitching that was available. Some of the premium names on the market were Zach Grineke, David Price, Johnny Cueto, and Jordan Zimmermann, just to name a few.

Since Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard seemed to be the Mets two aces, who would headline their rotation, Harvey could be replaced by a third or fourth starter. At the time, Baseball Prospectus ranked Steven Matz as the #9 prospect overall, after an impressive cameo in 2015.

Some of the names the could have signed were John Lackey, Doug Fister, and J.A. Happ. Lackey signed with the Cubs for 2 years at $32 Million, Fister with the Astros at 1 year for $7 Million, and Happ with the Blue Jays for 3 years at $36 Million. A rotation of DeGrom, Thor, Happ, Matz, and Bartolo Colon with an improved position player corps would be a more balanced squad than the 2015 team.

Many had the idea that Mookie Betts would be the return on Harvey, however, competing clubs would not just give their young talent away. Harvey was an ace with three years of control left, but also a lingering TJ surgery, which he seemed to recover from. The Mets would have gotten a top prospect and a roster player as the framework of the return.

Similar trades to a Harvey deal have occurred since the time period being discussed. Gerrit Cole was traded for three players with upside, but without anyone substantial being included. Chris Sale was traded for a significant return of the Red Sox top prospects a season after the proposed Harvey deals. This past MLB trade deadline, Chris Archer was dealt for once prized prospect Tyler Glasnow and potential star Austin Meadows.

Well, Harvey lies somewhere in between these three in terms of trade value. He is superior to Archer and near the same level as Gerrit Cole, while still being less than Chris Sale. Therefore, he would probably net a significant prospect with another roster player or two of high upside, as well.

The logic behind analyzing the potential trades is that this could have greatly shaped the Mets future. They would have a vastly different outlook than they currently have, that is indisputable. Here are three realistic trade options that the Mets could have considered.

Boston Red Sox

The Deal: Andrew Benintendi, Travis Shaw, and Joe Kelly

Andrew Benintendi was Baseball America’s number 15 overall prospect at the time and his debut occurred later in the 2016 season. Travis Shaw was a solid player and would have been an exceptional addition as a depth measure, or insurance policy, for David Wright. Joe Kelly would have been a tack on to the trade, but definitely offered some bullpen depth for the Mets.

This trade would have provided the Mets with one of the brightest rising stars in their outfield. Benintendi is a great hitter, blossoming into a quasi-classic, quasi-modern star. He can dispense the ball equally to all fields while hitting for an average around .290 as he did in 2018. He racked up 67 doubles and 177 RBI over his first two full seasons.

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Slotted into the number two role in that deadly Boston lineup, the left fielder truly rounded into form last season. 2017 was a strange season for the rookie, as he was extremely streaky. Each month featured either an excellent output or minimal production.

Last season when breaking down the month by month output, it was similar, but not as extreme as the year prior. His highs were higher and the lows were not quite as low. Therefore, Benintendi has begun to settle into his form of minimal strikeouts, a solid average, good fielding, and a fair amount of speed.

The Mets would not have had to wait too long for Benintendi’s impact to be felt, as he debuted in August of 2016, but obviously could have contributing earlier. Boston had much depth in the form of Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts, which might have forced reduced playing time for the rookie.

Another part of this deal that must be considered is that Benintendi would have signaled the end of Yoenis Cespedes‘s tenure with the Mets. If he was a Mets regular by the end of 2016, there would have been no reason for a Cespedes resigning. The circumventing of the albatross of the second Cespedes contract is even more of an argument in favor of the wisdom of this deal.

Travis Shaw would have been very valuable in the 2016 season and beyond. Shaw would have easily slotted into third base after Wright’s neck injury and given a solid power output at the bottom of the lineup. Whereas, Joe Kelly would have been an effective middle reliever who could provide multiple innings. This move would have deepened the Mets bench depth, with Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe having left in the 2015 offseason, and bolstered the bullpen, which relied too heavily on Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia in 2016.

Here is a potential 2019 lineup after the trade. While, the ensuing moves would, of course, be different, here is a vague look at what the team could have looked like if Harvey was traded:

1. Brandon Nimmo CF
2. Jed Lowrie 1B
3. Andrew Benintendi LF
4. Robinson Cano 2B
5. Wilson Ramos C
6. Michael Conforto RF
7. Travis Shaw 3B
8. Amed Rosario SS
9. Pitcher

Texas Rangers

The Deal: Nomar Mazara, Jurickson Profar and Dillon Tate

Nomar Mazara was ranked at twenty-one overall and third among Rangers prospects. He spent nearly the entire year at the major league level in 2016, as he posted 516 at-bats in 145 games, mostly as the DH or right fielder. In his first three seasons, Mazara has been a solid contributor, who averages twenty home runs and eighty RBI, with below 120 strikeouts per season.

Mazara, in his brief career, has not been an ideal average hitter, where his roughly .255 or so average drags down his on-base and slugging percentages.

However, he is still only 23 and honing his craft at the highest level. His relative inexperience has left a sizable amount of raw talent to be molded into a superior player. His tools range from power to contact and he seems to be adapting to the breaking ball, which gave him trouble early on in his young career.

He is evolving and rounding into, at the very least, a consistent outfielder, who is growing into his natural power at a young age. It would not shock many if the outfielder evolved into an excellent player with much power in the upcoming seasons.

The current Ranger could either slot into the top of the lineup, namely in the leadoff spot or towards the middle where his natural power can be put to proper use. The other two components of this deal are valuable to the Mets as well.

Jurickson Profar could have provided some depth from the bench for the Mets in 2016. They suffered many injuries that season and thus he most likely would have been forced into a larger role. The Mets have often lacked players that were versatile and picking up Profar a low value would have been a quality asset to the team. The once highly touted infielder struggled through ineffectiveness and injuries since 2013 until he resurfaced with the Rangers in 2016.

If the Mets had traded for him, they could have done so for a very cheap price and he may have brought them some dividends. Both Mazara and Profar would not only be productive in 2016, however, because they were both on rookie contracts on which many years of team control remained.

The final component of this blockbuster deal is the young pitching prospect Dillon Tate, the sixty-ninth overall prospect on Baseball America in 2016. Unlike the others, he still remains a prospect and has since been involved in two deadline deals. First, he was shipped off at the 2016 trade deadline for Carlos Beltran and then once again in 2018 before the trade deadline as part of a package for Zach Britton.

His true value is unknown at this point, but he has high upside due to his electric fastball. He revamped his delivery to regain top prospect status when he was a Ranger farmhand, however, this has caused him a delay to reach the major league level, which he has yet to accomplish.

Here is a potential 2019 lineup:

1. Brandon Nimmo CF
2. Jed Lowrie 3B
3. Robinson Cano 2B
4. Wilson Ramos C
5. Michael Conforto LF
6. Nomar Mazara RF
7. Todd Frazier
8. Amed Rosario SS
9. Pitcher