Mets Matt Harvey Conundrum: What if they traded him after 2015?

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NEW YORK, NY – NOVEMBER 01: Matt Harvey #33 of the New York Mets reacts in the ninth inning against the Kansas City Royals during Game Five of the 2015 World Series at Citi Field on November 1, 2015 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images) /

The New York Mets were heading for a period of sustained success, brimming with the hope of prospects becoming stars. However, the perceived starting point of this era was the pinnacle of its success. Matt Harvey’s drastic drop-off is the key to this downfall. What if they traded him after 2015?

The onset of Matt Harvey‘s thoracic outlet syndrome was the end of his New York Mets success. However, there were rampant rumors linking the dynamic pitcher to the Red Sox. While nothing was ever close, the idea of a trade such as this is very interesting.

If the Mets had traded Harvey for young position players and signed another starter, they would have been more well-off. The 2016 free agent class was impressive, especially in terms of the starting pitching that was available. Some of the premium names on the market were Zach Grineke, David Price, Johnny Cueto, and Jordan Zimmermann, just to name a few.

Since Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard seemed to be the Mets two aces, who would headline their rotation, Harvey could be replaced by a third or fourth starter. At the time, Baseball Prospectus ranked Steven Matz as the #9 prospect overall, after an impressive cameo in 2015.

Some of the names the could have signed were John Lackey, Doug Fister, and J.A. Happ. Lackey signed with the Cubs for 2 years at $32 Million, Fister with the Astros at 1 year for $7 Million, and Happ with the Blue Jays for 3 years at $36 Million. A rotation of DeGrom, Thor, Happ, Matz, and Bartolo Colon with an improved position player corps would be a more balanced squad than the 2015 team.

Many had the idea that Mookie Betts would be the return on Harvey, however, competing clubs would not just give their young talent away. Harvey was an ace with three years of control left, but also a lingering TJ surgery, which he seemed to recover from. The Mets would have gotten a top prospect and a roster player as the framework of the return.

Similar trades to a Harvey deal have occurred since the time period being discussed. Gerrit Cole was traded for three players with upside, but without anyone substantial being included. Chris Sale was traded for a significant return of the Red Sox top prospects a season after the proposed Harvey deals. This past MLB trade deadline, Chris Archer was dealt for once prized prospect Tyler Glasnow and potential star Austin Meadows.

Well, Harvey lies somewhere in between these three in terms of trade value. He is superior to Archer and near the same level as Gerrit Cole, while still being less than Chris Sale. Therefore, he would probably net a significant prospect with another roster player or two of high upside, as well.

The logic behind analyzing the potential trades is that this could have greatly shaped the Mets future. They would have a vastly different outlook than they currently have, that is indisputable. Here are three realistic trade options that the Mets could have considered.

Boston Red Sox

The Deal: Andrew Benintendi, Travis Shaw, and Joe Kelly

Andrew Benintendi was Baseball America’s number 15 overall prospect at the time and his debut occurred later in the 2016 season. Travis Shaw was a solid player and would have been an exceptional addition as a depth measure, or insurance policy, for David Wright. Joe Kelly would have been a tack on to the trade, but definitely offered some bullpen depth for the Mets.

This trade would have provided the Mets with one of the brightest rising stars in their outfield. Benintendi is a great hitter, blossoming into a quasi-classic, quasi-modern star. He can dispense the ball equally to all fields while hitting for an average around .290 as he did in 2018. He racked up 67 doubles and 177 RBI over his first two full seasons.

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Slotted into the number two role in that deadly Boston lineup, the left fielder truly rounded into form last season. 2017 was a strange season for the rookie, as he was extremely streaky. Each month featured either an excellent output or minimal production.

Last season when breaking down the month by month output, it was similar, but not as extreme as the year prior. His highs were higher and the lows were not quite as low. Therefore, Benintendi has begun to settle into his form of minimal strikeouts, a solid average, good fielding, and a fair amount of speed.

The Mets would not have had to wait too long for Benintendi’s impact to be felt, as he debuted in August of 2016, but obviously could have contributing earlier. Boston had much depth in the form of Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts, which might have forced reduced playing time for the rookie.

Another part of this deal that must be considered is that Benintendi would have signaled the end of Yoenis Cespedes‘s tenure with the Mets. If he was a Mets regular by the end of 2016, there would have been no reason for a Cespedes resigning. The circumventing of the albatross of the second Cespedes contract is even more of an argument in favor of the wisdom of this deal.

Travis Shaw would have been very valuable in the 2016 season and beyond. Shaw would have easily slotted into third base after Wright’s neck injury and given a solid power output at the bottom of the lineup. Whereas, Joe Kelly would have been an effective middle reliever who could provide multiple innings. This move would have deepened the Mets bench depth, with Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe having left in the 2015 offseason, and bolstered the bullpen, which relied too heavily on Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia in 2016.

Here is a potential 2019 lineup after the trade. While, the ensuing moves would, of course, be different, here is a vague look at what the team could have looked like if Harvey was traded:

Brandon Nimmo CF
Jed Lowrie 1B
Andrew Benintendi LF
Robinson Cano 2B
Wilson Ramos C
Michael Conforto RF
Travis Shaw 3B
Amed Rosario SS
Pitcher

Texas Rangers

The Deal: Nomar Mazara, Jurickson Profar and Dillon Tate

Nomar Mazara was ranked at twenty-one overall and third among Rangers prospects. He spent nearly the entire year at the major league level in 2016, as he posted 516 at-bats in 145 games, mostly as the DH or right fielder. In his first three seasons, Mazara has been a solid contributor, who averages twenty home runs and eighty RBI, with below 120 strikeouts per season.

Mazara, in his brief career, has not been an ideal average hitter, where his roughly .255 or so average drags down his on-base and slugging percentages.

However, he is still only 23 and honing his craft at the highest level. His relative inexperience has left a sizable amount of raw talent to be molded into a superior player. His tools range from power to contact and he seems to be adapting to the breaking ball, which gave him trouble early on in his young career.

He is evolving and rounding into, at the very least, a consistent outfielder, who is growing into his natural power at a young age. It would not shock many if the outfielder evolved into an excellent player with much power in the upcoming seasons.

The current Ranger could either slot into the top of the lineup, namely in the leadoff spot or towards the middle where his natural power can be put to proper use. The other two components of this deal are valuable to the Mets as well.

Jurickson Profar could have provided some depth from the bench for the Mets in 2016. They suffered many injuries that season and thus he most likely would have been forced into a larger role. The Mets have often lacked players that were versatile and picking up Profar a low value would have been a quality asset to the team. The once highly touted infielder struggled through ineffectiveness and injuries since 2013 until he resurfaced with the Rangers in 2016.

If the Mets had traded for him, they could have done so for a very cheap price and he may have brought them some dividends. Both Mazara and Profar would not only be productive in 2016, however, because they were both on rookie contracts on which many years of team control remained.

The final component of this blockbuster deal is the young pitching prospect Dillon Tate, the sixty-ninth overall prospect on Baseball America in 2016. Unlike the others, he still remains a prospect and has since been involved in two deadline deals. First, he was shipped off at the 2016 trade deadline for Carlos Beltran and then once again in 2018 before the trade deadline as part of a package for Zach Britton.

His true value is unknown at this point, but he has high upside due to his electric fastball. He revamped his delivery to regain top prospect status when he was a Ranger farmhand, however, this has caused him a delay to reach the major league level, which he has yet to accomplish.

Here is a potential 2019 lineup:

Brandon Nimmo CF
Jed Lowrie 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Wilson Ramos C
Michael Conforto LF
Nomar Mazara RF
Todd Frazier
Amed Rosario SS
Pitcher

Houston Astros

The Deal: Alex Bregman, Jake Marisnick and Joe Musgrove

The final imaginary trade is to send Matt Harvey to Houston for a package centered around Alex Bregman. The infielder was ranked as the forty-second overall prospect on Baseball America, who also ranked Joe Musgrove at eighty-three. Both were young players with much upside and both ended up in the majors by the end of 2016.

Bregman gained a great deal of traction after an impressive first half of the minors season that year. Then when he was called up for his debut, he had suffered an extensive cold stretch. While mired in a slump, a player cannot just shift from minor league to major league pitching. Thus his cold stretch was elongated and caused a loss in confidence. If handled properly, Bregman could have had a torrid start to his big league career.

Of all the potential players on this list, Bregman has had by far the most evidence of morphing into a bright star. His WAR, both last season and in his career, far exceeds that of Benintendi and Mazara. An extreme proficiency of power and plate discipline allowed him to accrue the impressive statistics of last season. His exceptional mark of 51 doubles was enough to lead the major leagues well complementing his 31 home runs and 103 RBI. A .286 average was the slightest of upgrades from his .284 mark from the season prior.

However, in all likelihood, his most impressive stat was his impeccable OPS. A .394 OBP and a .532 SLG allowed him to compile a .926 OPS, good enough for seventh in the major leagues.

His impressive bat is equal to his impressive glove, as he routinely makes quick picks of sharply struck balls. Quick instincts also assist him in throwing multiple batters out at home plate such as was seen in the 2017 postseason and World Series.

Possibly the most significant aspect of this trade would have been the ability to use Amed Rosario as a trade chip, considering Bregman’s original position was at shortstop.

Since this is all speculative, imagine the ability to ship Rosario with other prospects for J.T. Realmuto. Then since they would not have to sign Wilson Ramos, they could invest that free agent money in center fielder A.J. Pollock. Well, if this seems very easily said and not so easily done, it is. However, it is just an example of the options the Mets could have had.

Joe Musgrove is a fairly nice addition into the deal as well because he was able to contribute well to the Astros bullpen in the few years after his call up. Since his trade to the Pirates, he has been productive with a 4.06 ERA. The final piece was a depth measure for the Mets and a player that could provide backup to Juan Lagares, as a defensive specialist center fielder.

Potential 2019 lineup #1

Brandon Nimmo CF
Jed Lowrie 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Alex Bregman SS
Michael Conforto LF
Wilson Ramos C
Todd Frazier 1B
Jeff McNeil RF
Pitcher

Potential 2019 lineup #2

A.J. Pollock CF
Jed Lowrie 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Alex Bregman SS
J.T. Realmuto C
Michael Conforto LF
Todd Frazier 1B
Pitcher
Brandon Nimmo RF

Next. A look back at the Mets' collapses in 2007 and 2008

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These deals may not be completely realistic, however, they are an attempt to gauge how the Mets would have been far better off if they indeed traded Harvey. There was no way anyone can blame the front office for not foreseeing Harvey’s downfall. Yet there is something to be said about dealing with an asset when it has its most value. The Mets must keep this in mind when dealing with the futures of Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard.

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