Are the Mets actually favorites in the National League East?

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PHILADELPHIA, PA – SEPTEMBER 17: Jeff McNeil #68 of the New York Mets high fives Michael Conforto #30 after Conforto hit a three run home run in the top of the ninth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on September 17, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Mets defeated the Phillies 9-4. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /

Are the New York Mets actually entering the 2019 season as the favorites of the National League East? Let’s crunch some numbers and find out.

On multiple occasions this offseason, general manager Brodie Van Wagenen has made a case for the New York Mets as the favorites in the division. As the curtain closes on the offseason, spring training gets into full swing, and rosters start coming further into focus, we examine whether the Mets new GM was overconfident or spot on with his proclamations.

Van Wagenen, has not been shy in making his opinion known that the team he has put together can go toe to toe with any of their NL East competitors, declaring for the other teams in the division to ”come get us” – as though the Mets were already winning the “race” and the division’s other squads have to catch up.

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“We believe we can win, and I think because of that we should not be afraid to say it,” BVW added.

But the Braves, Nationals, and Phillies have all made moves of their own this offseason while the Marlins’ young core is a year older and more polished. So, since paper is all we have for comparisons right now, how, exactly, does the National League East look on paper?

Funny you should ask as there is certainly no shortage of sources from which to choose from for your preseason prognostication needs this time of year.

Below is a list of preseason predictions for the Mets in 2019 from various sources (as of 02/22/2019).

Pecota Ratings

Mets…87-75 (2nd Place)

Rotochamp

Mets…87-75 (2nd Place)

Fangraphs

Mets…85-77 (2nd Place)

Davenport Projections

Mets…89-73 (1st Place)

Caesars Casino Sportsbook

Mets…83.5 wins (3rd place)

The Mets were also represented in Jayson Starks’ Spring Training Preview in The Athletic, as they were voted “most improved in NL” by Starks’ 30 esteemed baseball professionals.

So, as a composite of the analysis above the Mets should land somewhere near the top, but not quite; better than .500, and significantly better than their 77-85 mark from last season, but not great.

We can’t just sit back and let everyone else have all the fun, however. We can chime in with our two cents too. Devising our own rating system to determine the NL East favorite while testing Van Wagenen’s claims along the way.

Let’s not get too clever, however. Using long, drawn-out formulas and crunching exotic stats in a supercomputer is a bit over the top for my taste. And all that work seems a bit silly when, in reality, predictions are a futile business to begin with.

Accordingly, I’d prefer simple(ish) rantings based on not much more than my opinion of how I expect the players to perform in 2019.

There are five teams in the National League East (Braves, Nationals, Marlins, Mets, and Phillies). In order keep score, we’ll rank the top three (of those five) NL East players at each position awarding each NL East team a point for a number three ranking at a position, two points for a number two ranking, and three points for the best player at each spot.

Tally up the collective points for each team and that is their respective National League East score. Teams will be rated by these scores, accordingly, and we’ll see how our ratings stand up against the experts’.

All of the natural caveats apply for these ratings, of course. Free agents (large and smaller ticket items alike) are still to be had at this late stage of the game and could come off the board at any minute – obviously affecting rosters. And spring training can also change a number of things, but we have a basic idea of how things will look on Opening Day based on where we stand today.

PORT ST. LUCIE, FLORIDA – FEBRUARY 21: Robinson Cano #24 of the New York Mets poses for a photo on Photo Day at First Data Field on February 21, 2019 in Port St. Lucie, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

Player Rankings

Starters for each NL East team at each position are based on these depth charts.

So, enough with the preliminaries. Let’s dive right in and get to ranking.

Catcher:

1. J.T. Realmuto – Phillies (3 pts)
2. Kurt Suzuki – Nationals (2 pts)
3. Wilson Ramos – Mets (1 pt)
Note: An offseason trade does nothing to affect Realmuto’s place as the top catcher in NL East (by a wide margin).

First Base:

1. Freddie Freeman – Braves (3 pts)
2. Rhys Hoskins – Phillies (2 pts)
3. Ryan Zimmerman – Nats (1 pt)
Note: Freeman is easily the cream of the NL East crop at first base.

Second Base:

1. Robinson Cano – Mets (3 pts)
2. Ozzie Albies – Braves (2 pts)
3. Brian Dozier – Nationals (1 pt)
Note: Cano, the poster-child for consistency, showed he was the same player post-PED suspension. Albies’ upside can’t be ignored, but he hasn’t yet shown it for a full season. Can Dozier rebound from a down 2018?

Shortstop:

1. Trea Turner – Nationals (3 pts)
2. Jean Segura – Phillies (2 pts)
3. Amed Rosario – Mets (1 pt)
Note: The NL East SS rankings seem to be fairly straightforward.

Third Base:

1. Anthony Rendon – Nats (3 pts)
2. Josh Donaldson – Braves (2 pts)
3. Jed Lowrie – Mets (1 pt)
Note: Which Josh Donaldson will the Braves get for their $23 million?

Left Field:

1. Ronald Acuna, Jr. – Braves (3 pts)
2. Michael Conforto – Mets (2 pts)
3. Juan Soto – Nationals (1 pt)
Note: I see Conforto as a 2019 breakout candidate and Soto as a 2019 regression candidate. Andrew McCutchen just missed the cut at this talent-laden NL East position.

Center Field:

1. Ender Inciarte – Braves (3 pts)
2. Victor Robles – Nationals (2 pts)
3. Odubel Herrera – Phillies (1 pts)
Note: Inciarte’s consistency pitted against Robles’ sky-high, five-tool potential versus Herrera’s hot and cold streakiness.

Right Field:

1. Brandon Nimmo – Mets (3 pts)
2. Nick Markakis – Braves (2 pts)
3. Adam Eaton – Nationals (1 pt)
Note: Nimmo’s career arch appears to be on the rise while Markakis is probably nearing the end of his. Eaton would have a chance to top this list if he could stay on the field (only 410 at-bats over the last two seasons).

The Staff Ace:

1. Max Scherzer – Nationals (3 pts)
2. Jacob deGrom – Mets (2 pts)
3. Aaron Nola – Phillies (1 pt)
Note: Nationals ace just too consistently dominant to be overtaken at the top by deGrom’s 2018 Cy Young brilliance.

Number Two Stater:

1. Noah Syndergaard – Mets (3 pts)
2. Stephen Strasburg – Nats (2 pts)
3. Jake Arrieta – Phillies (1 pt)
Note: I’ll take Syndergaard’s potential to stay healthy and perform at the highest level over Strasburg’s.

Third Starter:

1. Patrick Corbin – Nationals (3 pts)
2. Zack Wheeler – Mets (2 pts)
3. Kevin Gausman – Braves (1 pts)
Note: The potential for Wheeler to build on his second-half success from last season in his contract year is so high that I would prefer to put him at the top spot, as I’m all in on Wheeler this year. But Corbin earns the nod here based on the strength of the stellar contract year that he just had (and subsequently cashed in on this offseason).

Fourth Starter:

1. Steven Matz – Mets (3 pts)
2. Anibal Sanchez – Nationals (2 pts)
3. Julio Teheran – Braves (1 pt)
Note: As the caliber of starter begins to take a downturn, Matz seems to be the best of what’s left.

Fifth Starter:

T-5. Touki Toussaint – Braves (1 pt) T-5. Sandy Alcantara – Marlins (1 pt)
T-5. Jason Vargas – Mets (1 pt)
T-5. Joe Ross – Nationals (1 pt)
T-5. Vincent Velasquez – Phils (1 pt)
Note: Your guess is as good as mine here. One point rewarded to each team due to a five-way tie.

Closer:

1. Edwin Diaz – Mets (3 pts)
2. Sean Doolittle – Nats (2 pts)
3. David Robertson – Phillies (1 pt)
Note: Arodys Vizcaino also deserves mention, but just missed the cut partly because he has yet to reach the 20 save mark in either of his two seasons as the Braves closer.

Set-Up Man:

1. Jeurys Familia – Mets (3 pts)
2. Seranthony Dominguez – Phillies (2 pts)
3. AJ Minter – Braves (1 pt)
Note: Familia has a leg up within this group of power set-up arms.

So, there you have it. Could we have ranked the other bullpen arms, the strength of the teams’ benches, organizational depth, and managers and their respective coaching staffs, etc, etc, etc.? Of course.

But why?

In the end, there’s not all that much that distinguishes the cream of the crop from the middle of the pack there and it’s just not compelling enough to look too deeply into.

For example: quick, who is the current manager for Atlanta Braves?

Exactly.

I believe we have enough “data” here to put to use and figure out where things stand for our purposes.

I’m eager to see how everything turns out team-wise based on the individual scoring from above. I’ll take care of the math, but feel free to join the fun and play along.

Oh, and Brian Snitker is the Braves’ manager, by the way.

(insert Jeopardy music)

And the numbers are in. Drum roll, please.

Team Scoring Totals

New York Mets: 28 points

Washington Nationals: 27 points

Atlanta Braves: 19 points

Philadelphia Phillies:14 points

Miami Marlins:1 point

Interesting, but what, exactly, do these scores tell us?

WASHINGTON, DC – SEPTEMBER 21: Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets pitches against the Washington Nationals during the sixth inning at Nationals Park on September 21, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) /

Are the Mets truly NL East favorites?

This is far from an exact science, but our little thought experiment indicates that the Mets and Nats are the two top teams in the division, with the Braves and Phillies each regressing back towards the middle of the pack, while the Marlins are still in the midst of a full-blown rebuild.

On paper and according to this way of looking at things, BVW is right. The Mets are the favorites in the NL East. But it’s so close (28 points for the Mets to 27 points for the Nats) that its basically a tie.

A possible flaw in the scoring could be the Atlanta Braves. Logic would dictate that the division winners from last season who add a former MVP in Josh Donaldson and have another year of experience for Acuna, Jr., Albies, and their young pitchers should remain the favorites.

But what this rating system did was discount the Braves’ young arms, as only Gausman, Teheran, Toussaint, and Minter made the list at their respective positions and they only managed a single point apiece.

Perhaps there is some merit to this, as the pitching staff is not the team’s strong suit. Although it didn’t seem to bother Atlanta much last year.

We shall see.

This simplified system of analysis also says that the Nats underachieved last season, that the Mets improved this offseason, that the Phillies from the second half of 2018 are closer to what we’ll see this year than what they showed in an unexpectedly hot first-half last season, and that the Marlins are a long ways away as of this moment.

I can’t say I disagree with any of that. Nor would most people.

All in all, the ending point totals for each team roughly reflect what the prognosticators wielding statistical analysis beyond my scope of intellect have concluded if you were to combine all of the Pecota, Fangraphs, Caesars, etc data from above.

The NL East didn’t quite follow the script they were handed by the experts last season, however, as the Braves and Phillies surprised just about everyone. And my crystal ball has been in the shop forever, so this is far from a prediction of 2019’s ending NL East results and more of a loose guide to where we’re at right now (on paper, at least).

What does this mean for the Mets in particular, however?

Well, it means they look pretty good on paper and that’s a starting point, but we all know that’s not where seasons are played. They’re played out on major league ball fields over 162 games.

But more important for the Mets than rankings and points awarded in the offseason is the willingness for BVW to stick his neck out there, be bold, and assure his team that he has as much, if not more, confidence in them as they do in themselves – both individually and collectively.

This confidence publicly resonating from the top down is a far cry from Sandy Alderson’s measured approach to, well, just about everything. Yes, there is an air of ”fake it ’til you make it” to the whole thing, but it certainly feels as though the players are starting to buy in.

Next. Player predictions for the 2019 New York Mets

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