9 under the radar trade targets the Mets should pursue

The New York Mets have a long to-do list this offseason. They still need to build a front office, address the rotation, figure out a few positions in the field and lineup.

A few weeks ago, I wrote about under-the-radar free agents the Mets should target. I still believe free agency is the best path for the Mets to take, but there are some good options available through trades as well. 

You won’t find German Marquez, Matt Chapman, or Jose Ramirez in this article because they are star players. I’m looking for good-but-not-great options, ideally with some team control left. Let’s look at some under-the-radar trade targets.

The Mets are in the market for lots of pitching. Frankie Montas would be a great addition.

Montas is coming off a great 2021. The 28-year-old made 32 starts, pitching 187 innings. He gave up 164 hits, 70 earned runs, 57 walks, and struck out 207 batters. He had a 3.37 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, and 4.1 fWAR. He got 26.6% of his outs via strikeout, and of his batted balls, almost 43% were on the ground.

His Baseball Savant page shows mixed results. He gave up a lot of hard contact, ranking in the 23rd percentile in hard hit rate and 36th in barrel rate and average exit velocity. The good news is that he excelled in getting swings and misses. He ranked in the 91st percentile in chase rate, 75th in whiff rate, and 70th in strikeout rate.

The righty throws four pitches. He throws a 4-seam fastball and a sinker, both in the high 90’s. He uses both of them about 30% of the time. His splitter is his best off speed pitch, sitting in the high 80’s that he uses about 22% of the time. It’s one of the best pitches in baseball with a .126 batting average against, .168 slugging percentage against, and batters swinging and missing at it more than 51% of the time.He rounds out his arsenal with a high 80’s, high spin slider.

There are a couple of concerns about Montas. One is his health. Before this season, he had never made more than 16 starts or pitched more than 96 innings. The other is that he got suspended for performance-enhancing drugs in June of 2019. He claims that he didn’t intend to take it, but it was “a contaminated supplement” purchased over the counter. He hasn’t had any PED issues since.)

The A’s are going full sell mode, putting everyone on the block. Montas is under team control through 2023, so whichever team acquires him will have two years of control. With the possibility of Stroman leaving in free agency, this is someone the Mets should be interested in.

Zac Gallen has the kind of upside that should intrigue the Mets.

The righty made a career-high 23 starts and pitched 121.1 innings in 2021. He gave up 108 hits, 58 earned runs, 49 walks, and struck out 139 batters. His ERA was 4.30, his FIP was 4.25, his WHIP was 1.29, and his fWAR was 1.5.

His Savant metrics showed mixed results. He had a good strikeout rate (70th percentile)  and expected batting average against (60th percentile), but he didn’t get many swings and misses (28th percentile in whiff rate and 25th percentile in chase rate) and he gave up a lot of hard contact (18th percentile hard hit rate and 38th percentile in average exit velocity). Even with the high hard hit rate, he did avoid barrels (48th percentile, which is basically average).

One concern with him is that he walks a lot of batters. Over his career, he averages 3.6 walks per nine innings. His overall walk rate is 9.6% and, which is in the 34th percentile on Savant. If he can harness his control a little more, he will be much more effective. 

Prior to this season, his highest ERA was 2.81 in his rookie season in 2019. Gallen is not a guy with flashy stuff, but the man knows how to pitch. He comes with four years of control remaining in the prime of his career. Since the Diamondbacks won’t be winning baseball games for a few years, maybe they’ll consider moving him.

Lou Trivino would be a great addition to the Mets’ bullpen.

Trivino is another Oakland A on the trade block who had a great season in 2021. He made 71 appearances, pitching in 73.2 innings, allowing 58 hits, 26 earned runs, 34 walks, and striking out 67 batters. He finished 44 games, getting saves in 22 of those games. He had a 3.18 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 1.25 WHIP, and 0.6 fWAR. 

Despite the good numbers, his Baseball Savant page isn’t impressive. He has a good hard hit rate (85th percentile) and average exit velocity (79th percentile). Other than that, it’s a lot of blue. He doesn’t get swings and misses (29th percentile in whiff rate and 6th percentile in chase rate) and he walks a lot of batters (18th percentile). 

Trivino throws five pitches, a rarity for a late-inning reliever. He throws three fastaballs - a 4-seamer and sinker in the high 90’s, and a cutter in the mid-90’s. He has a mid-80’s changeup and a slow curve in the high 70’s.

One cause for concern is that his spin rates have dropped over the years. His cutter averaged 2,495 RPM’s in 2018, but this year it was down to 2,236. This is the most drastic change, but all of his pitches are down overall.

The 30-year-old has three remaining years of control on his contract. Given his age and his unexciting metrics, I don’t think he’ll be that expensive. Maybe the Mets could look to acquire Trivino and Montas together.

The Cubs are in full-blown rebuild mode, and the Mets could use one of their few remaining good players, Ian Happ.

The switch hitter slashed .226/.323/.434/.757 and hit 25 homers, 20 doubles, drove in 66 runs, and scored 63. He posted an OPS+ of 102, a wRC+ of 103, and an fWAR of 1.3. 

Happ hits the ball hard. He was in the 74th percentile in barrel rate and the 54th percentile in hard hit rate. He does chase a lot of pitches out of the zone (80th percentile) but he also walks a lot (83rd percentile in walk rate). He’s also got some speed, ranking in the 70th percentile in sprint speed.

One of the things that makes Happ valuable is that he can play so many positions in the field. This year, he saw time at second, third, and all three outfield positions. While he isn’t a great defender, that versatility is a huge asset. His best position this season was left field, where he posted a 2 DRS and a 0 OAA. In total at all positions, he had a -5 DRS and a -6 OAA in 2021.

Happ has two years of control left. Since he is coming off of a career high in several categories, including homers and doubles, his value might be at its peak and the Cubs have no reason to keep him. Since he’ll be a free agent long before the Cubs are ready to contend again, they should make him available this winter. Given that Javy Baez is a free agent and there are doubts about Jeff McNeil, this is a solid move.

The Mets are in need of some starting pitching, and Spencer Turnbull is an interesting option.

Turnbull was having a breakout season before he suffered a forearm injury in early June and underwent Tommy John surgery in late July. He made nine starts and pitched 50 innings, allowing 37 hits, 16 earned runs, 12 walks, and striking out 44. His ERA was 2.88, his FIP was 2.95, his WHIP was .98, and his fWAR was 1.5. He dazzled on May 19th when he no-hit the Mariners.

The righty throws six pitches, which is a rarity. He uses his 4-seam fastball the most, about 36% of the time. Next up is his mid-80’s slider about 25% of the time. Then he uses his sinker about 22% of the time. His changeup and curveball were only thrown about eight percent of the time. He started throwing a cutter this year, but didn’t use it very much (3%). His fastballs all sit in the low-to-mid 90’s. 

Turnbull is a ground ball specialist, inducing grounders on 57% of batted balls. He also gets batters to pull the ball a lot (45%) and he only gives up hard hit balls about 21% of the time.

Turnbull has three years of control remaining. If he doesn’t suffer any setbacks, he has a chance to come back in late 2022. Even if he does have a setback, he’ll be ready to go in early 2023. Given that he’s going to miss most or all of next season, Turnbull’s price may be lower than it normally would be. He might also be more expendable, given that the Tigers just signed Eduardo Rodriguez to a five-year deal.

The Mets are looking for a replacement for Michael Conforto. Could Max Kepler be the guy?

Kepler’s best season was in 2019 when he hit 36 homers, 32 doubles, slugged .519, had an OPS of .855, an OPS+ of 123, and fWAR of 4.5. He is coming off of a down season in 2021 where he slashed .211/.306/.413/.719 with 19 homers, 21 doubles, 54 RBI’s, and 61 runs scored. His OPS+ was 98, his wRC+ was 95, and his fWAR was 1.9. 

The lefty’s Savant metrics show that he had some bad luck this year. All of his metrics are above average, with his lowest being expected batting average in the 54th percentile. Kepler commands the strike zone really well, being in the 93rd percentile in chase rate and 77th percentile in walk rate. His hard-hit metrics are also fairly good, he was in the 61st percentile in hard hit rate and average exit velocity, and 71st percentile in barrel rate.

Kepler is an outstanding defender in right field, where he gets most of his playing time. In 2021, he had a DRS of nine and an OAA of seven. He was in the 95th percentile in OAA, 78th percentile in outfielder jump, and he’s got some speed too (60th percentile in spring speed).

Kepler is under contract for two more seasons, plus he has a club option for 2024. The Twins started a rebuild last year, non-tendering Eddie Rosario and trading Jose Berrios to Toronto for prospects who won’t be ready for a couple of years. Since they won’t be contending until after Kepler’s contract is over, they may make him available this winter.

The Mets are in the market for an outfielder, and the Reds have more than they can use. The two teams line up well for a potential trade.

One of their outfielders who may be available this winter is Aristides Aquino. Aquino burst onto the scene in 2019, hitting 19 homers in just 56 games. He slugged .576 and had an OPS of .891. Playing time has been hard to come by since then, considering the Reds had Tyler Naquin, Jesse Winker, and Nick Castellanos playing everyday. Castellanos is a free agent this winter, but they also have Nick Senzel and Shogo Akiyama ready to step in.

Aquino is known for that power bat. This season, he hit 10 homers and six doubles in 84 games, slugging .408. His Baseball Savant metrics showed that he could’ve been better, with an expected slugging of .431, a barrel rate of 14.9, and a hard hit rate of 37.3. While he didn’t have enough of a sample size to register percentile rankings, those are good numbers.

Aquino played all three outfield positions over the last two seasons. He is most suited for right field because he has a cannon of an arm, but he also has the speed and range to play center field. 

Aquino has four years of control, making him an attractive option as well as a potentially expensive one. This is probably a long shot because of that, but Aquino would be a great fit for the Mets.

This is a long shot. A really, really long shot. The type of long shot you’d need baseball’s equivalent of Chris Kyle to take. But Triston McKenzie would help the Mets a lot.

McKenzie is coming off of a good sophomore season He made 24 starts, pitching 120 innings. He gave up 84 hits, 66 earned runs, 58 walks, and struck out 136 batters. His ERA was 4.95, his FIP was 4.70, his WHIP was 1.18, and his fWAR was 1.1. He struggled in the first half (5.47 ERA and 1.40 WHIP), but he turned it on in the second half (4.58 ERA and 1.03 WHIP).

McKenzie is really good at getting swings and misses. He was in the 65th percentile in whiff rate, and in the 77th percentile in strikeout rate and chase rate. One thing he could get better at is allowing less hard contact, finishing in the 17th percentile in average exit velocity, 18th percentile in barrels, 23rd percentile in hard hit rate.

Cleveland was basically a .500 team in 2021. They’ve already moved on from Francisco Lindor, and the Jose Ramirez era will come to a foretold end soon, when he either gets traded this winter or at the trade deadline next summer. They have a decent farm system, ranked 13th by MLB Pipeline, but the Indians won’t be ready to contend again for a few years. McKenzie has value in his performance and in his youth (five years of team control remaining), and it would behoove them to consider moving him to speed up their rebuild. It would be expensive for the Mets, easily costing Matt Allan and more, but if they think a winning window is opening, they should pony up. 

Who do you want to see the Mets trade for?