Predicting the NY Mets Opening Day starting rotation with Frankie Montas on the roster

The New York Mets’ rotation was a reliable group in 2024. They put up a 3.91 ERA, 4.17 FIP, and 1.25 WHIP as a group. Although those weren’t world-beating numbers, each sat around league-average. But they made up for the lack of elite numbers with a ton of innings. Mets’ starters had the third most innings pitched in the National League and fifth most among all 30 Major League teams.

Opening Day is still months away, and the Mets will likely be very active in free agency and the trade market for the rest of the off-season. There’s still a lot left for David Stearns and Steve Cohen to do. But let’s take a way too early prediction as to what the Mets’ starting five could look like when April rolls around.

Kodai Senga

It would have been fun to see how the 2024 season would have played out if the Mets had a healthy Kodai Senga. Senga was limited to just a single regular season start after suffering a posterior capsule strain before Spring Training. He wouldn’t return to the mound until late July but would pitch just 5.1 innings in one outing before landing back on the IL with a calf strain. Senga would make his way back to the hill during the Postseason, but missing Senga was a huge blow to the Mets’ rotation.

When healthy, Senga is an ace-caliber pitcher. During his 2023 rookie season, the former Japanese superstar pitched to a 2.98 ERA, 3.63 FIP, and 1.22 WHIP across 166.1 innings. Senga struck out 29.1% of opponents with a 10.93 K/9 ratio. Only Dwight Gooden, in his memorable 1984 season, has put up a higher K/9 in 20+ starts in Mets’ history. 

Senga was also good at limiting the long ball. His HR/9 rate clocked in at 0.92, while his 6.8% barrel rate was in the 71st percentile of all qualified pitchers in 2023. Senga did occasionally struggle with free passes. He had an 11.1% walk rate, which was the third-highest among all pitchers last year. Granted, the only pitchers worse than him at limiting walks were the ‘23 Cy Young winner Blake Snell and Charlie Morton.

Senga finished the year by placing second in Rookie of the Year voting behind Corbin Carroll and even received some National League Cy Young votes, finishing in 7th place. Not having Senga last year hurt the Mets’ pitching staff significantly. But getting him back into the rotation next year will give the starting five a huge boost.

Sean Manaea

Re-signing Sean Manaea should be one of the Mets’ top priorities this off-season. The veteran Southpaw is coming off arguably the best season of his career and even received some down-ballot Cy Young votes. Not only is he a reliable veteran left-handed starter, but the Mets turned him around, and he can provide quality results along with volume.

Manaea made 31 starts while pitching a career-best 181.2 innings. His 3.47 ERA was another career-best. Manaea also had a quality 3.83 FIP and 1.08 WHIP. The lefty struck out batters at a 24.9% rate with an 8.5% walk percentage. His 1.04 HR/9 ratio was another peripheral that clocked in better than the league average.

Manaea made multiple changes to his game from 2023 to 2024. He lowered his arm angle significantly from 28 degrees to just 22 degrees. He changed up his pitch selection, and used his sinker as his primary pitch, the first time he has done that since 2021, which also happened to be the last time Manaea put up an ERA+ of 100 or greater. He also made alterations to the rest of his pitch mix.

Manaea will be 33 years young for the entirety of the 2025 campaign. MLB Trade Rumors currently ranks Manaea as the tenth-best free agent on the market this off-season, and he is projected to earn a three-year contract worth $60 million, coming out to an AAV worth $20 million.

David Peterson

David Peterson put up an ERA of just over 5.00 in 2023. He had some solid underlying numbers and broke out by taking a different approach this past season. The Southpaw is coming off his most promising season yet, cutting down his walk rate and inducing fewer swings-and-misses, but putting up some good results in the end.

Peterson pitched 121 innings, the most he’s tossed in the Major Leagues in a single year. His ERA clocked in at 2.90 and had a 3.67 FIP and 1.29 WHIP. Peterson had a 26.8% strikeout rate the previous two seasons but saw that drop to just 19.8%. On the plus side, his 9% walk rate was the first time he had a sub-10% BB%. Another positive is that his 0.60 HR/9 was another career-low.

Peterson induced a ground ball at a 50.1% clip. Although his 89.3 MPH exit velo was below average, his 7.3% barrel rate sat in the 59th percentile of all pitchers in baseball. Peterson used his sinker more than any other pitch in his arsenal, which held opponents to a zero-degree launch angle. Only 24 pitchers had a sinker that induced a zero or negative launch angle (min. 100 plate appearances).

Peterson’s season is promising, especially given he had such poor numbers just a year ago. The Southpaw is only entering his age-29 season as well. Peterson could end up being a reliable middle-rotation arm for the Mets next year. Hopefully, he can pitch more innings next year while still inducing good results.

Frankie Montas

The Mets recently added Frankie Montas to their starting pitching depth chart. They inked the former Oakland Athletics right-hander to a two-year deal at $34 million ($17 million AAV). With the recent success the Mets have had turning around struggling veterans like Luis Severino and the aforementioned Sean Manaea, Montas could be in store for a rebound himself.

Montas missed most of 2023 due to injuries but was healthy enough to make 30 starts and pitched 150.2 frames last season for the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers. The numbers were not pretty, however, as he put up a 4.84 ERA, 4.71 FIP, and 1.37 WHIP. Montas had an unremarkable 22.6% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate but greatly struggled to limit home runs. His HR/9 came in at 1.43 with a mediocre 9.2% barrel rate.

For what it’s worth, Montas has had success in the past. From 2018 through 2022, Montas pitched to a 3.70 ERA, 3.61 FIP, and 1.25 WHIP with a much better 24.1% K%, 7.3% walk percentage, and 1.01 HR/9. Montas also finished sixth place in American League Cy Young voting in 2021 while with the Oakland A’s.

Montas also had some better ERA estimators. His xFIP clocked in at 4.26, while his SIERA sat at 4.38. While neither paints Montas in a great light, they are an improvement over his 4.84 ERA. Hopefully, the Mets can add Montas to their resume of veterans who have turned things around in New York. It would undoubtedly be a big help for the Mets’ rotation if Montas could look closer to his 2018-2022 days compared to his 2024 season.

Walker Buehler

Montas isn’t the only rebound candidate I have currently penciled into the Mets’ Opening Day rotation. The Mets have recently been connected to former two-time All-Star and Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler. The last three years haven’t treated the right-hander well. He underwent Tommy John surgery partway through 2022, causing him to miss all of 2023. 

He returned this year just to put up a 5.38 ERA, 5.54 FIP, and 1.55 WHIP in just 75.1 innings. But he wasn’t at 100% the entire season, as he missed time due to a hip injury. At the very least, Walker ended the year on a high note. He finished out the Postseason, pitching ten scoreless innings between the NLCS and World Series, striking out 13, and recording the save during Game Five against the Yankees.

Plus, at one point, Buehler was one of the best pitchers in the game. From 2018 through 2021, Buehler pitched 564 innings, working to a 2.82 ERA, 3.16 FIP, and 0.99 WHIP. Buehler had a 27.7% strikeout rate to pair with an elite 6.1% walk rate. This amounted to a 4.53 K:BB ratio, the 13th highest between these four years. Buehler also had just a 0.93 HR/9 rate.

Buehler is in a situation similar to Severino's a year ago. Coming off a rough year, the previous three seasons had not treated Severino well either, missing time because of a multitude of injuries. But Severino proved to be a solid addition to the Mets’ rotation. Hopefully, if the Mets add Buehler, he can replicate something similar.