NY Mets prospect reminds us all to never jump to any quick conclusions

Elian Pena's cold start shows why you can't judge a player after a small sample size.

Noah Wright

New York Mets v Washington Nationals / G Fiume/GettyImages

Like in any sport, baseball players can get off to ice-cold starts to the season. Just last season, the New York Mets saw Francisco Lindor have a sub-100 wRC+ at the end of May. But some fans are willing to jump ship after a slow start. This also happens with prospects, with fans declaring a young minor leaguer a bust before they can even get a full season in. The Mets’ top international signing from this past offseason, Elian Pena, just proved why you can’t jump to conclusions too quickly.

Pena was one of the best international prospects from last year’s class. His $5 million signing bonus was surpassed by one player: Roki Sasaki. MLB Pipeline ranked him as the third-best prospect from the class, while Baseball America ranked him as the second-best. Both sites praised his high ceiling with the bat. Pipeline projects his hit tool as a 65-grade item, while BA states he could even be a 25-30 home run hitter. Both also held his pitch recognition and plate discipline in high regard. He has the potential to be the Mets' next great prospect.

Pena was sent to the Dominican Summer League to begin his pro career, and his first few weeks couldn’t have gone worse. In 54 plate appearances, the young infielder had just three hits, one of which was a home run. He also struck out ten times, albeit with six walks. Sure, it was a small sample size, but that small sample size produced a wRC+ of just

Elian Pena showing us not to jump to conclusions after a cold start to the year.

But since then, Pena has looked nearly unstoppable at the plate. Over his next 169 trips to the dish, Pena has a .363/.482/.652 triple-slash. The power is showing up in games, as he has eight home runs and a .289 isolated slugging percentage. He is also walking more frequently than he is striking out, with a 17.8% free pass percentage, and a K% clocking in at just 15.8%. Pena’s wOBA is well over .500 at .529, and his wRC+ is approaching 200, sitting at 185.

This scorching hot stretch has led to Pena’s numbers on the season skyrocketing. He has a .949 OPS, .454 wOBA, and 144 wRC+. He has just 36 strikeouts and the same number of walks. His .236 isolated slugging percentage is the 12th best among qualified hitters at the DSL. He is one of only 13 qualified DSL batters with at least a .200 ISO, and a 1.00 or greater BB:K ratio. Even though he is playing at the lowest level of the minor leagues, he is still one of the younger players at that level.

If you were ready to give up on Pena after just 54 plate appearances, chances are you didn’t have faith in him to begin with. His outstanding season reminds any doubters not to judge a player after a small sample size, especially one who was as highly touted as Pena was coming out of the Dominican Republic last offseason.

Noah Wright

Noah is a life-long Pirates fan who started his baseball writing journey on a blog he started with his friends in 2018 before his senior year of high school. He has since been writing for Rum Bunter starting in 2019, and Rising Apple since 2024. He grew with his favorite Pirates players being Francisco Liriano, Mark Melancon, A.J. Burnett and Andrew McCutchen, watching them bring the Pirates back to October baseball in 2013 through 2015. Noah graduated with a bachelor's degree in sport management in 2022 from Pennwest University, and also has expereince in baseball operations and as a college baseball video scout. In his free time, Noah enjoys playing video games and reading Marvel comics on his favorite characters like Spider-Man and The Punisher.