3 comparable free agents the NY Mets should have signed instead of Frankie Montas

3) Michael Lorenzen

Michael Lorenzen is coming off another solid season. In 2024, he split the campaign with the Texas Rangers and Kansas City Royals. The veteran made 24 starts, making the second season in a row he had 20+ starts and an ERA+ over 100. Although he had some worrying peripherals, he signed a low-cost contract with the Royals this winter.

Lorenzen pitched a total of 130.1 innings in 2024, working to a 3.31 ERA, 4.89 FIP, and 1.24 WHIP. He only struck out 18.1% of batters with a walk rate of 11.2%. The veteran right-hander was about average when it came to home runs and batted ball exit velocities. Lorenzen put up a 1.17 HR/9 rate, 88.5 MPH exit velocity, and 8% barrel percentage.

Lorenzen’s underlying numbers raise some red flags. He had a 4.95 xFIP and 5.07 SIERA. His .236 batting average on balls in play fell well short of his career average of .277. Despite that, his exit velo and barrel rate were worse than his career averages, clocking in at 87.8 MPH and 5.6%, respectively. Although, for what it is worth, he has been able to consistently over-perform some of these ERA estimators. His career ERA is 3.99, while he has a 4.43 xFIP and 4.53 SIERA.

Sure, Lorenzen has worse peripherals than Montas. But he signed for $10 million less than Montas. The Royals agreed to bring the former pitcher/outfield back on board on a one-year deal worth just $7 million. It may be reasonable to be concerned about Loreznen’s numbers under the hood, but it’s not as if Montas is significantly better and cost over twice as much in the process.