It's safe to say the Frankie Montas project has not gone as planned. When the New York Mets signed Montas to a one-year, $17 million deal last winter, fans questioned the decision to sign a guy with an ERA over 4.50 since 2021. After giving up seven runs in four innings in Sunday afternoon's disaster against the Giants, Montas is up to a 6.68 ERA on the season with a 1.54 WHIP.
Mets' pitching coach Jeremy Hefner is regarded as one of the league's best in his field, and his ability to return fading pitchers to their former glory (Manaea, Severino, etc.) has turned heads across the league over his tenure. Montas, who was good in 2021 and the first half of '22, was one that David Stearns hoped could be a similar case with Hefner when there were better options on the board. The Mets overpaid for an experiment that hasn't worked out; here's who they could've had instead.
1) Jose Quintana
This one is a low-hanging fruit. Quintana, who had a 3.70 ERA with the Mets and pitched two shutout starts for them in the playoffs last year, was repaid by the team he wanted to return to with absolutely nothing, having to wait until March to sign a measly 1-year, $4 million deal with the Milwaukee Brewers. Now he's thriving in Milwaukee, with a 3.50 ERA in 16 games started.
It's mind-boggling that the Mets chose to throw $17 million at a struggling Montas, who they had hopes of fixing, rather than spend less to bring back Quintana, who has been a proven model of consistency over the past three seasons and a key to some of the Mets' major victories during their 2024 NLCS run. Now that it's clear how the Montas deal is working out, not taking another chance on Quintana will be something that Mets fans, especially myself, will be shaking their heads about for years to come.
2) Matthew Boyd
This one is hard to judge the Mets for passing up on. Going into the season, Boyd had a career ERA of 4.85 across nine seasons and hadn't appeared in more than 15 games since 2019. He wasn't even on the Mets' radar during the offseason; it's hard to fault them for not prioritizing a pitcher with that kind of track record.
Boyd has exploded this season, breaking out in his age-34 season with the Chicago Cubs. Making his first All-Star appearance this year, he is 11-4 with a 2.34 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. His run value this season is 18 (97th percentile) per Baseball Savant. He struggles with his velocity (31st percentile), but his four-seam fastball is effective due to its release point and vertical movement. It's important to mention that he thrives in command, too, with a walk rate of just 5.6% (88th percentile).
While it's hard to criticize the Mets for this move, you can't help but cringe at the two-year, $29 million deal Boyd got with the Cubs in comparison to the $17 million the Mets gave Montas for just one year. The Cubs ended up with a more effective pitcher for less, but any team would've done that deal had they known how successful Boyd would be this year.
3) Nathan Eovaldi
It's a bit of a different situation contract-wise with Eovaldi, but this is a guy the Mets should've been all over in the offseason, and the numbers show why. On the first year of a new three-year, $75 million deal with the Texas Rangers, Eovaldi has continued to prove why he is one of baseball's most underrated pitchers, shoving at age 35 with a 1.49 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP through 18 starts.
Eovaldi has been one of the more consistent pitchers in the game across his 14-year career. He's had bad years, but none since 2019. Since then, he has an ERA of 3.44 and a WHIP of 1.13 across 133 starts. His velocity isn't quite what it used to be. However, Eovaldi still throws one of the best offspeed pitches in the game, with a run value of 8 (98th percentile), and his fastball remains effective, regardless of velocity, with a run value of 13 (95th percentile). His overall run value is 28 (99th percentile). Eovaldi also continues to be one of the best in the game at limiting walks, a trend that's spanned his entire career. His walk rate is an elite 5.1% (92nd percentile).
The Mets had their reasons for passing up on him, a lot of it being a multi-year contract at his age, but the value he would've provided for even one year would be far worth what Montas has given them so far.

