3 best NY Mets trade matches at the MLB Winter Meetings

The MLB Winter Meetings are kicking off. Aside from the trade deadline, this is one of the most active times in baseball. The New York Mets have already been active this off-season, but things should start heating up even more this week. There’s still work to be done, and the Mets should be quite active on the trade market over the coming days. But what teams make the most sense for the Mets to engage in trade talks with?

1) Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins have been in a seller’s mode since last April. Luis Arraez, Jazz Chisholm, Trevor Rogers, Tanner Scott, Bryan De La Cruz, Josh Bell, and A.J. Puk are some of the notable names they’ve swapped in the last year. The Marlins are likely not done, and they have some players the Mets might be interested in.

The Mets could still use another starting pitcher. They’re taking a gamble on Frankie Montas rebounding, especially with Clay Holmes. Holmes has primarily worked as the New York Yankees’ closer for the last three years, and the Mets plan on trying him out in the rotation. The Fish will likely be open to trading Southpaws Jesus Luzardo and Ryan Weathers. 

Luzardo is coming off an injury-marred season where he had just a 5.00 ERA, 4.26 FIP, and 1.25 WHIP while only pitching 66.2 innings. But he’s only one season removed from a 3.58 ERA, 3.55 FIP, and 1.22 WHIP in 178.2 innings in 2023. Weathers only pitched 86 innings but quietly put together a solid campaign with a 3.63 ERA, 4.11 FIP, and 1.18 WHIP in his age-24 campaign.

Luzardo and Weathers would be great fits on the Marlins, but they also have some relievers that may catch the Mets’ eye. Despite less-than-stellar ERAs, Andrew Nardi, Anthony Bender, Declan Cronin, and Calvin Faucher each had solid seasons with great peripherals. But the Mets could definitely use some relief help behind closing pitcher Edwin Diaz.

Lastly, the Marlins do have a slugger who could help the Mets out at first base if Pete Alonso signs elsewhere. Over the last two years, Jake Burger has proven to be one of baseball’s best sluggers, batting .250/.305/.488 with a .337 wOBA and 113 wRC+ since the start of the 2023 season. Burger has 63 home runs over the last two seasons, which is the 17th most in baseball.

2) Seattle Mariners

If there’s one team with pitching to spare, it’s the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners will be one of the first teams other organizations call if they need a hurler, especially given the Mariners are a team in desperate need of hitters. Last season, the Mariners ranked 21st in runs scored, while the Mets ranked 7th, and the Mets still have young position players they could trade.

The Mariners look like they’ll see what they can get for stalwart Luis Castillo. Last year, Castillo put up a 3.75 ERA, 3.91 FIP, and 1.17 WHIP across 175.1 innings pitched. Castillo had a 24.3% strikeout rate and 1.28 HR/9, but his 6.5% was a single-season best for the veteran right-hander. Castillo has also been very durable, making at least 30 starts in five of his last six seasons (not including 2020).

Castillo comes with control through 2027 with an AAV of $24.15 million. He also has a vesting option for 2028 for $25 million that is dependent with his innings total the three prior seasons. While Castillo seems like the most likely player to get dealt, the Mariners will likely field offers on former first round pick Emmerson Hancock. Although he struggled last year, the right-hander is only entering his age-26 season.

3) Arizona Diamondbacks

The third team on today’s list is the Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-Backs fell just short of making the playoffs this year despite winning the National League pennant the previous season. The Snakes are rumored to have gotten calls on their multiple starting pitchers, which makes them a good potential trade partner for the Mets.

The Mets could target a young, controllable arm like Brandon Pfaadt. Although Pfaadt put up a 4.71 ERA, nearly every ERA estimator put him as a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher. He carried an above-average 24.3% strikeout rate with an outstanding 5.5% walk rate and a respectable 1.19 HR/9 rate. Pfaadt is only 26, but the D-Backs would likely be unwilling to trade Pfaadt short of a haul given his age and control remaining. 2024 was only his second big league season.

Veterans Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are both on expiring contracts. The former finished top five in Cy Young voting in 2022 and 2023 and put up some decent numbers in 2024 but was only limited to 148 innings pitched. Kelly was also great in 2022 and 2023, putting up an ERA below 3.50 and FIP below 4.00 in both seasons. But he struggled this year, primarily with injuries, and only pitched 73 frames.

The Mets could also look to take on a contract like Eduardo Rodriguez or Jordan Montgomery. The veteran lefties struggled mightily this season. Rodriguez pitched just 50 innings, while Montgomery was signed late into Spring Training, which didn’t give him a proper warm-up and led to an ERA over 6.00. However, after handing out the largest contract in MLB history to Juan Soto, the Mets may not want to take on a potentially underwater contract. Either way, it’s still a possibility.