Worst Case Scenario
Because Familia will be used in a role that he is not quite familiar with, his worst-case scenario can be pretty bad. When he was traded to the A’s in 2018, he was not used as a closer and his ERA was much higher than it was during his time in New York, jumping from 2.88 to 3.45.
Even though in 2017 he did not pitch in as many games as he usually does, those are the worst numbers we could see from Familia next season: over 4 ERA, almost 1.5 WHIP, and few strikeouts.
Even if Familia has a good regular season, things could go wrong for him in the postseason, as we saw in the 2016 NL Wild Card game against the San Francisco Giants.
In the 12 playoff games Familia appeared in prior to that one, he had been exceptional, posting a sub-2 ERA and sub-1 WHIP. In the 2016 Wild Card game, Syndergaard pitched a gem (allowing no runs) and Familia gave up a three-run home run that would cost the Mets the game in the ninth.
If the Mets do make the playoffs in 2019, Familia’s worst-case scenario would be getting himself into that same kind of trouble.
Familia has established himself as one of the better closers in baseball throughout his career and Mets’ fans have grown to love him. We are excited to have him back in Queens and hope he will be as good of a reliever in earlier innings as he has been as a closer.
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What kind of a year do you think Familia has in 2019?