Worst Case Scenario
The small tether that binds the Mets rotation can suddenly tear with Lugo’s UCL. The ship can capsize if Lugo is not at his finest come the Spring and Summer. The jagged rocks of a devastating injury can serve a fatal blow to the Mets’ hopes.
While an injury can occur to anyone, there is a looming apparition that frightens Mets fans and staff alike and that is the ghastly thought of pitching on a partially torn UCL. If injury strikes it will be a fatal blow to the Mets hopes. If not, all involved will be left in apprehension wondering if it will ever happen.
Now, how must it feel to be in Lugo’s place, to be concerned with that on your every pitch? I would not wish such a feeling upon others.
A far less grim end product can be the worst case scenario, as perhaps an unlucky season befalls Lugo such as in 2017, where his FIP, ERA, and WHIP did not properly align.
He can possibly put up numbers above last season’s output, in the area of 3.50 – 4.00 ERA with an elevated WHIP around 1.20. While his quality would dictate otherwise, all pitchers are prone to bad luck, it is unavoidable.
This is unlikely given that it just happened two seasons ago and his normal consistency would indicate the same.
One last area that he may struggle in is the starting rotation. If pressed into starting duty he will have success, but not at the rate as he did in the bullpen because this is the role that he is most suited to. A spot start or role as an opener will be fine, but as a regular starter, the Mets may have reservations.
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Seth Lugo is not a player that should be defined as quizzical because his career trends are quite apparent. Therefore, the Mets would seem to have a key pitcher in form, despite the limited threat of an injury.