Mets 2017 Season Preview: Which player is most likely to disappoint?

Emmanuel Pepis, Staff Writer

As a fan, these articles are the least fun to write. You hope everybody performs to expectation, but that’s never the case. It pains me to say it, but my Mets player most likely to disappoint is someone I would have never thought of two years ago: Matt Harvey.

The decreased velocity may not overshadow command, but it’s certainly a big issue. For the short term, Harvey is going to have to reinvent himself. That’s tough for a pitcher who could routinely live off an electric fastball that would average 95-96 at its peak. It was a pitch he used about 65% of the time in his 2015 season per FanGraphs.

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There was a slight downtick in Harvey’s velocity last year as he battled shoulder pain. He eventually required season-ending surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in July. In all, Harvey posted a 4-10 season with a 4.86 ERA, a decreased strikeout rate, and more hits allowed per nine innings. This spring while sitting at least three miles an hour less than usual, Harvey has struggled in Spring Training. He’s allowed 11 hits and nine runs (seven earned) over eight innings.

I wrote about other pitchers who received the same surgery and what could possibly be expected. At 27, Harvey still has a chance to perhaps regain some velocity. Then again, he may not. And at least for now, he can’t just blow hitters away.

The zone in effect, shrinks. Now Harvey is going to have to move the ball around more, hit certain spots within the strike zone, and rely more on effective secondary pitches. Is he capable? Absolutely, but that’s retraining yourself. In Spring Training, we’re seeing that it’s going to be a process that could endure some rough times. The question is, how long will they last?

Harvey is a pure competitor with a bulldog mentality. He’s just been dealt a rotten hand with two major surgeries in the last three years. And he’s entering a newer world of pitching for him. I hope I’m wrong, and I may very well be (wouldn’t be the first time by a long shot). Harvey is just in a tough spot and it’s going to take him some time to adjust. Therefore, my expectations are down on him for this season.