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New York Mets News

Mets 2017 ZiPS Projections released

jfteran
Aug 21, 2016; San Francisco, CA, USA; New York Mets catcher Rene Rivera (44) greets relief pitcher Jeurys Famillia (27) after their 2-0 win over the San Francisco Giants iat AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Lance Iversen-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 21, 2016; San Francisco, CA, USA; New York Mets catcher Rene Rivera (44) greets relief pitcher Jeurys Famillia (27) after their 2-0 win over the San Francisco Giants iat AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Lance Iversen-USA TODAY Sports
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May 28, 2016; New York City, NY, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard (34) pitches against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the first inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports
May 28, 2016; New York City, NY, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard (34) pitches against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the first inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

Pitchers

"“The projections for the club’s most likely group of five starters don’t seem to be the sort one might expect from a team whose rotation produced the highest WAR figure in the majors last season. ZiPS has already called for the five likely members of the Nationals’ rotation to produce about 19 wins collectively; of the Cubs’ rotation, roughly 16 wins. Here: just 13. The principal causes appear to be both (a) general regression (which is probably inevitable for a team that finishes first in anything) and (b) the departure of Bartolo Colon. With regard to the bullpen, it features something not unlike a relief ace in Jeurys Familia (76.0 IP, 75 ERA-, 1.0 zWAR), who receives not only the top WAR projection among the club’s relievers, but also the best adjusted ERA. Right-hander Addison Reed (69.1, 79, 0.8) also earns strong marks by both measures.”"

ZiPS is expecting the Mets rotation to not be as potent as last year’s because no one can stay at no. 1 forever…okay. I’d disagree in general simply because of how injuries took a toll on the rotation last year.

Out of the original five, only two remained standing by the end of the year and the Mets eventually had to depend on rookies down the stretch.

In an ideal world, that just wouldn’t be the case, and we’d see around 30 starts from Harvey, deGrom, Matz, and Syndergaard. Unfortunately, ZiPS only sees Noah making over 30 starts in 2017 with no one in the rotation reaching 200 innings pitched.

Syndergaard will continue to be the top starter in 2017. He’ll strike out 224 over 188 and 2/3 innings while posting a 2.91 ERA according to these projections.

Matt Harvey‘s struggles will continue somewhat, as the Dark Knight is projected to sport a 3.83 ERA. They may not have given as much importance to Harvey’s post-surgery outlook, so his projections suffered there.

They do like relievers Hansel Robles and Josh Smokerthough, so that’s a nice surprise. Each one of them is projected to post over a 25 percent strikeout rate after the season is done.

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