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New York Mets News

Mets 2017 ZiPS Projections released

jfteran
Aug 21, 2016; San Francisco, CA, USA; New York Mets catcher Rene Rivera (44) greets relief pitcher Jeurys Famillia (27) after their 2-0 win over the San Francisco Giants iat AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Lance Iversen-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 21, 2016; San Francisco, CA, USA; New York Mets catcher Rene Rivera (44) greets relief pitcher Jeurys Famillia (27) after their 2-0 win over the San Francisco Giants iat AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Lance Iversen-USA TODAY Sports
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MLB: Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
MLB: Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

Batters

"“Only four Mets field players recorded a WAR figure of 2.0 or greater in 2016. According to Dan Szymborski’s computer, six different Mets might be expected to reach that mark in 2017. Yoenis Cespedes (596 PA, 4.1 zWAR) receives the club’s top projection by a full win — and three of the club’s top-four forecasts overall belong to outfielders. One of those additional outfielders is Curtis Granderson (538, 2.3). The other isn’t presumptive right-field starter Jay Bruce (583, 1.2) but rather Michael Conforto (558, 3.0). Conforto, in other words, appears to be a markedly superior option. ZiPS doesn’t account for the nature of David Wright‘s (331, 1.1) injury over the past couple seasons, only that he’s missed time because of it. Following two abbreviated seasons, Wright unsurprisingly earns a muted playing-time projection for 2017. The rate numbers are predictably modest relative to Wright’s best seasons. He still appears to profile as an average player, though, when he’s on the field.”"

Right off the bat, they note the biggest projection — in my opinion — of the year: Michael Conforto is going to have a great season. Going off WAR exclusively, Conforto is tied with Neil Walker (3.0 WAR) as top contributors to the team after Yoenis Cespedes (4.1 WAR).

According to their projections, Conforto will hit .251/.324/.466 over 558 plate appearances. I’m not exactly sure how they think he will get this many at-bats with Jay Bruce still on the team, but I’d totally be down to see that.

Conforto is also projected show some pop, hitting 24 home runs and 29 doubles. A strikeout rate of 22 percent isn’t great, but it’s consistent with the theme of the team: struggling to not strike out and make contact consistently, but when they do hit the ball, it goes far.

I’m also happy to see both Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera projected to continue hitting the ball well. Walker’s 20 home runs along with Cabrera’s 17 would be extremely welcome from both middle infielders.

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