Dillon Gee should be the odd man out

Sandy Alderson believes the Mets have an excess of starting pitching, and the time has come to move some of those pieces.

I wrote yesterday that Bartolo Colon should be drawing interest from other clubs, although that isn’t yet the case. Regardless of whether or not the Mets trade Colon, they will still have a decision on their hands come May or June, when Noah Syndergaard will likely be promoted from Triple-A Las Vegas.

Under a scenario where Colon or one other pitcher is not traded, the Mets would theoretically have Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jacob deGrom, Jon Niese, Colon, Dillon Gee, and Noah Syndergaard all ready to fill rotation spots by June. Two pitchers would have to be removed from the rotation.

Under a scenario where Colon or one other pitcher is traded, the Mets would still have six pitchers for five rotation spots come June, meaning that one of them would have to be removed from the rotation.

With the Mets unlikely to find a team willing to pay a premium for Jon Niese, the odd man out under either scenario above should be Dillon Gee.

Gee has value, but as a back-end starter who is due to make roughly $5 million in 2014, the Mets would be better off dealing him now. Some have argued that Gee would be a fit for the bullpen, but that would be a waste of resources. You don’t pay someone $5 million to be a long-man or middle-innings guy.

A bit lost in Dillon Gee’s tremendous run from the middle of 2013 to the middle of 2014 was the fact that his stellar ERA over that time owed a lot to luck.

Over the past three seasons, Gee’s K/9 has decreased from 7.96 to 6.42 to a career-low 6.16.

As Gee’s K rate has dropped, his FIP has reason each season since 2012 – from 3.71 to 4.00 to 4.52.

Gee’s HR/9 rate of 1.18 in 2014 was also the worst of his career.

Again, Gee has value and should be able to bring something decent back in return.

However, as it pertains to the Mets, Gee should be the odd man out.