New York Mets News

It may be time to sell high on Dillon Gee

By Danny Abriano

Dillon Gee hasn’t just been the most reliable Mets starter over the last year, he’s also been one of the better pitchers in all of baseball during that span. Since May 30, 2013, Gee has posted the fourth best ERA in baseball. However, there are a few reasons why the Mets should consider trading Gee.

May 4, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Dillon Gee (35) prepares to pitch in the seventh inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. The Mets defeated the Rockies 5-1.Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

The first, is that come 2015, the Mets may have enough quality starting pitchers to form two rotations – unless they trade at least one or two of them.

If the Mets don’t make any trades, they’ll have Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Noah Syndergaard, Jenrry Mejia, Jon Niese, Bartolo Colon, Rafael Montero, Jacob deGrom, and Gee as major league rotation options when 2015 begins.

The second, is that while Gee has been fantastic, the numbers suggest that he’s outperforming expectations.

So far in 2014, Gee has posted an ERA of 2.51. However, his FIP (fielding independent pitching) is 4.05 – more than a run and a half higher. Gee is also striking out less batters than he ever has (6.17 per 9).

The BABIP Gee is inducing is even more glaring.

In 2011, 2012 and 2013, the opposing BABIP against Gee was .270, .301, and .296 respectively. So far in 2014, the opposing BABIP against Gee is .218.

Gee’s ground ball and fly ball percentages in 2014 are around where they were in 2013 – meaning that his BABIP is due to increase substantially.

Even if his performance regresses as expected, Gee is still extremely valuable. However, he may be more valuable via trade than he would be in a rotation that’s expected to include high-upside arms such as Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Noah Syndergaard.

The Mets are in need of a shortstop upgrade, and there are at least three teams who have shortstops to deal and are in dire need of starting pitching help. Those teams are Arizona, Oakland, and Seattle.

Arizona has Chris Owings at the major league level and Didi Gregorius in the minors, but may be less inclined to pull the trigger now due to the fact that they’re 11-23.

Seattle has Nick Franklin playing for Triple-A Tacoma, and the club doesn’t have a position open for him at the big league level.

The Athletics are reportedly looking to acquire a starting pitcher for catcher John Jaso, but the presence of impending free agent shortstop Jed Lowrie on the roster makes them a potential match for the Mets.

Again, Gee has value. But he may be best utilized by the Mets as a trade chip who helps them import the shortstop upgrade they’re in dire need of.

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