The Mets’ bullpen was bad in 2012. (How bad was it?) The Mets’ bullpen was so bad in 2012, they’ve been retroactively blamed for the 2006 NLCS (You’re off the hook, Carlos Beltran!). But seriously, they stunk. The good news, however, is that there’s a lot to suggest they won’t stink so much in 2013. Let’s get started.

Below is a chart summarizing the Mets’ relief pitching in 2012. In the interest of making a reasonably-sized chart, I’ve included relievers with over 20 innings pitched individually and grouped everyone else into a single row:

Oct. 3, 2012; Miami, FL, USA; New York Mets relief pitcher Bobby Parnell (39) throws during the ninth inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. The Mets won 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Bobby Parnell quietly enjoyed another solid season out of the Mets’ pen, pitching 68.2 innings with a solid 2.49 ERA. The secret to Parnell’s success has been the development of a legitimate secondary offering, a curve ball taught to him by Jason Isringhausen in 2011. The curve, which offers a significant speed differential to his blazing fastball and a decent break (compared to a largely flat slider he used to throw) has allowed Bobby to develop into a legitimate pitcher, and not simply a thrower relying on his power alone to carry him.

From the chart above, we can see that the additions Alderson made last season largely didn’t work out. His three primary acquisitions – Jon Rauch, Frank Francisco, and Ramon Ramirez – did provide significant innings (163.2, or 35.7% of the relief innings in 2012), but they combined for a 4.34 ERA. That number is nicer than it looks, as Rauch’s 3.59 ERA offsets the 4.75 mark from the other two).

Manny Acosta pitched just over 10% of the Mets’ relief innings, but he allowed more than 14% of their earned runs. It’s a tale of two seasons with Acosta though, as his second half was dominant (1.78 ERA in his final 25.1 innings). In his first 22 innings, he surrendered 29 earned runs! (If we remove those numbers from the overall total, the bullpen’s ERA drops to 4.29).

This leads to an interesting hypothesis: how unlucky were the Mets relievers?

The answer? Fairly. As a small test, I’m going to take the five most-used relievers (Parnell, Ramirez, Rauch, Acosta, and Francisco), and remove their three worst appearances (by ERA) and their three best appearances (by ERA) and see how it compares to their regular numbers (denoted as ERA’):

September 21, 2012; Boston, MA USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Scott Atchison (48) pitches during the eighth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

It drops nearly an entire run! By removing the worst 15 appearances (3% of the bullpen total), we’ve removed 42 earned runs (17.7% of the total)! And in doing so, we’ve cut the overall relief ERA by 0.53 runs.

Admittedly, it isn’t an entirely fair assumption I’ve just made; it would be disingenuous to suggest that other bullpens don’t have such poor luck. However, it does offer reasonable evidence that when it rained in the Flushing bullpen, it poured.

This was especially true for embattled closer Frank Francisco (Rising Apple writer Michael Lecolant took an in depth look at Francisco’s season here), whose 2012 was by most measures a disaster. Suffering through nagging elbow and knee injuries, Francisco posted an ERA (5.53) that was 2 runs higher than his ERA over the previous four seasons (3.54). Though Francisco became more hittable (10 H/9) and his walkrate soared to 10.7%, his high strikeout rate (23.9%) and unusually high BABIP (.339) both suggest that all wasn’t bad for Francisco. If his control issues were in fact exacerbated by injury, Francisco could improve significantly in 2013.

Looking forward to 2013, the biggest reason to be confident about the bullpen’s success is their turnover. GM Sandy Alderson has signed a slew of relievers to minor league deals (including Scott Atchison, LaTroy Hawkins, and former Met “Perpetual” Pedro Feliciano), and is rumored to be finalizing a deal with Brandon Lyon.

For the interest of “review”, I’m going to recreate the first chart above, but I’m going to substitute Atchison, Hawkins, and Lyon in lieu of Acosta, Ramirez, and Rauch:

Aug. 29, 2012; Bronx, NY, USA; Toronto Blue Jays relief pitcher Brandon Lyon (31) pitches during the eighth inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Toronto won 8-5. Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-USA TODAY Sports

We notice two things: First, that the ERA drops by 0.66 runs; second, that the bullpen became worth an additional 2.0 fWAR. Though the strikeout rate goes unchanged, the walk rate drops by more than a percentage point (10.2 vs. 9.1), and their WHIP drops slightly as well (1.39 vs. 1.35).

If I were a betting man (and I am), I would bet (and I will) that the opening day bullpen will probably be composed of holdovers Bobby Parnell, Frank Francisco, Josh Edgin, and Jeremy Hefner (as the longman) and newcomers Hawkins, Lyon, and Atchison. On paper, they represent a significantly improved pen for the Mets.

The true test of a bullpen’s meddle, however, is the performance of those behind the first seven. Pitchers Pedro Feliciano, Jeurys Familia, and others will be waiting in AAA Las Vegas for an opportunity, and others (such as young lefthander Jack Leathersich) are rising quickly through the system. How they actually perform remains to be seen, but it’s certainly hard to fault the front office, as Alderson has made several low-risk veteran signings that, even at their worst, would be challenged to match the struggles of their predecessors.

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David Wright intimated that winning, and not necessarily money, will be a paramount factor determining where, and with whom, he will sign his next contract.  That is somewhat good news for Mr. Wilpon, but only if Sandy Alderson can convince Wright in time, things are quickly about to turn around for the better.  Then maybe, David Wright might cut Mr. Wilpon some slack on his asking price and move away from the unofficial Ryan Zimmerman launching pad.

Aug 4, 2012; San Diego, CA, USA; New York Mets third baseman David Wright (5) walks back to the dugout after being called out on strikes during the eighth inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE

…Or not.  Because once you exceed a certain dollar amount, what discount are we really talking about?  I mean, if David Wright really wanted to be a benevolent home town hero, his price tag should drop commensurate with his season batting average then?  No?  Well, if this was football, then maybe.  But such cost flexibility and productivity correlations do not exist in baseball.  In this sport, it’s pay up, or get out of the way.  See Jose Reyes.  In an open market system, there is no case to be made like in arbitration hearings, that promote or discredit past service and performance.  On the open market, none of that matters.  For almost all owners, if you want a player, free agency effectively means shut your mouth, cut the check, cross your fingers, and continue writing checks.

The affects of this dynamic are no different on David Wright and the Mets.  After hitting .389 in April; .347 in May; .340 in June; you might have figured out by now where I’m going with this.  David Wright only batted .255 in July, and is currently hitting .273 in August.  Since hitting his post-April zenith with a .415 batting average on May 21st, he has landed at a more realistic .323 mark.  Oh, but what a fall; ninety-two points to be exact, and dropping.  And like lemmings following one another, David’s OPS is officially now below 1.00, and his slugging and on-base percentage have dropped by nearly one-hundred points as well.  But that’s only a play on numbers, because David Wright, after all, continues slugging over .500, his OBP remains over the .400 mark, and he is still batting twenty-one points better than his career average.  So, at this point, fluctuations in his season are so inconsequential.

Now here’s the kicker.  Even if David Wright’s season continues to fall like a piano from the sky, as it has over the last month and a half, it doesn’t matter, price wise.  Does it?  But Tuesday night’s ninth inning, game winning three run home run by Jay Bruce, off Josh Edgin, does.  Why not believe another blown save is bad news for the Mets?  From this latest loss, and after too many similar meltdowns this season, one can deduce things aren’t going so well in contract negotiations then, if you’re taking David Wright at his word that is.  He knows very well what ails this team, and clearly understands the Front Office’s ability to fix the outfield, and the bullpen, either concurrently, otherwise, or not at all.  So if we are to gauge David Wright’s confidence the club can accomplish those two tasks, ask yourself as a fan first, if you too have the confidence the Mets can reconstruct the bullpen, and renovate the outfield by either this winter, or next season’s trade deadline.  Odds are David Wright and many fans are coming up with the same answer.  But I could be wrong.

What is true however, is that no later than Manny Acosta walking the lead-off batter Tuesday night in the ninth inning versus Cincinnati, that the game of Chicken between David Wright and the Mets had begun.

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