May 8, 2013; Flushing, NY,USA; New York Mets catcher John Buck (44) grounds into a double play during the fourth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

Many are aware of OPS and WAR and what they mean. If you don’t, OPS is on-base percentage plus slugging percentage, simply adding those two values together, since these two statistics are thought to be the most important when looking at a player’s offensive value. OPS breaks down like this (from Bill James):

Great- .900 0r better

Very Good- .833-.899

Above Average- .766-.832

Average- .700-.765

Below Average- .633-.639

Poor- .566-.632

Atrocious- below .566

WAR is a little more nebulous. Unlike OPS, WAR factors in all aspects of the game (such as batting, base running, and defense). WAR then looks at the overall value this player brings to his team (how many wins he may individually account for), over what could be had from a replacement player. Interestingly, the “replacement player” is not a star, rather a bench player or AAA player. WAR stats below are projected from current values through year-end. Here’s the WAR scale (from Fan Graphs):

Scrub 0-1

Role Player 1-2

Solid Starter 2-3

Good Player 3-4

All Star 4-5

Super Star 5-6

MVP 6+

Now, for the analysis of a Mets lineup:

John Buck- OPS of .757 and a WAR of 2.4. Through OPS, Buck is seen as a high-end average offensive player. It’s hard to argue that, since Buck does bring power and the potential to drive in runs, but historically hits for a low average, limiting his ability to score runs and capitalize on RBI opportunities. His WAR of 2.4 is questionable, though. The statistic suggest that Buck is worth two and a half wins over a modest replacement. Buck is not a great defensive catcher (though he calls a good game and the pitchers respect him). He does not run the bases well. But Buck can win several games (and has already) with his bat and long-ball prowess. In Buck’s case, OPS seems right, WAR seems off.

Ike Davis- OPS of .498 and WAR of -3.2. It’s hard to dispute either of these. Davis falls into the last OPS category, and his WAR suggests that the Mets would be better off with a replacement first baseman. The Mets appear to be heading in this direction, with Andrew Brown getting some work at first in Las Vegas.

Daniel Murphy- OPS of .792 and a WAR of 4.0. Murphy’s OPS suggests that he is an above average offensive player, and this seems correct. Murphy is a solid hitter, with occasional power. He can drive in and score runs. His WAR agrees with his OPS, as his WAR pegs him as a good player. WAR factors in defense (Murphy is NOT a bad defender, probably average) and base running (he is a bad base runner).

Ruben Tejada- OPS of .552 and a WAR of -2.4. Both of these statistics paint a bleak picture of Tejada. OPS and WAR agree that Tejada is performing at a sub-standard level, and observation of him would concur. Tejada, in my opinion, is a bench player. And that’s not a bad thing. Tejada fits the mold of reserve infielder, and those are needed. As a starter, Ruben doesn’t seem to be able to put up enough offensive numbers to justify anything but flawless defense, which he has not delivered. His offensive value will come from singles, since he has no power or speed.

David Wright- OPS of .955 and WAR of 9.2. David’s OPS is right on, as he is a borderline great offensive player. He hits for a high average, and mixes in about 25 HRs in a season. His WAR is telling a similar story. WAR considers defense (Wright is among the best) and base running (Wright is an excellent base runner). Wright’s WAR projects him as MVP caliber. While this may be aggressive, Wright is an all-around solid player, as seen in both metrics.

Lucas Duda- OPS of .808 and WAR of 0.4. Here’s where problems may arise with relying on statistical analysis. Duda’s OPS is “above average”. It disagrees with his WAR, which suggests that he’s easily replaceable. If OPS is considered to be a strong indicator of offensive talent, one wonders about its validity here. I don’t think many Mets fans see Duda as above average offensively. He’s hitting .213 with 14 RBI. The WAR statistic drops his value considerably, and certainly defense is driving that. However, if you look at all of this together, Duda does seem to be best suited to a DH role.

Rick Ankiel- in a very limited sample, OPS of 1.033 and WAR of 0.4. These seem to be the opposite of what one would expect. Ankiel will never have a high OBP, a big part of OPS. Therefore, when numbers normalize, one would expect Ankiel’s OPS to be in the “average” area, driven mostly by his power. His WAR should be higher, at least between 2-3, primarily because he’s a good defender and base runner.

Jordany Valdespin- also in a fairly limited sample, OPS of .684 and a WAR of -0.8. These numbers portray Valdespin as a below-average player, and are probably not accurate. Valdespin has already had a big role a couple of Mets’ wins this year (against LA, Miami, and even Friday at Chicago). He is not in the lineup for power (though he does have some power), and this will negatively skew his OPS. Also, he does run the bases well, and is a decent defender. Therefore, his WAR should be higher, as there is no way that he brings less value than a AAA replacement.

Statistics are fun. As fans, we debate them all the time. As we’ve seen above, they even debate each other. If I had to draw a conclusion, it would be that statistics cannot be isolated (“this guy has a higher OPS so he’s better”), and they cannot be used as the only tool in evaluation (is Lucas Duda an above average offensive player)? Perhaps the old world of scouting wasn’t the best way, and the new world of sabermetrics isn’t the best way. Maybe we have the best of both worlds now. So let’s use them together, and let the “informed” debates continue!

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   Player                                       Avg.                      OBP

Lucas Duda                               .224                        .372

Marlon Byrd                              .261                        .293

Juan Lagares                           .167                         .219

Andrew Brown                         .200                         .294

Jordany Valdespin                  .242                         .296

Mike Baxter                             .269                         .381

Lucas Duda certainly is not solely responsible for the outfield’s offensive woes.

March 30, 2013; Sarasota, FL, USA; New York Mets left fielder Lucas Duda (21) works out prior to the game against the Baltimore Orioles at Ed Smith Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

But after a hot start, he has cooled considerably, and has struck out in about 33% of his official at-bats. The lack of production from the outfield is almost shocking, and has been a major contributor to the team’s 14-19 start to the season. When one sees statistics like these, the first reaction is to ask when help may be on the way. The problem is, at the high levels of the minor leagues, there isn’t help to be found. In the hitter-friendly PCL, AAA outfielder Jamie Hoffman is hitting .305, and old friends Collin Cowgill and Kirk Nieuwenhuis are hitting .261 and .245 respectively. Matt Den Dekker is close to returning to action, but he would likely be at least 2 months away from being able to help in Flushing.

The other option to improve the outfield is via trades. The Mets do not seem inclined to begin dealing to try to improve the major league club. This is understandable, since the Mets’ most-desired trading chip is starting pitching, and it would be counter-productive to trade pitching at this point. So where does Sandy Alderson go from here?

He probably goes nowhere. We all knew that this was to be a transition year, when bad contracts were allowed to expire while young pitching was afforded the opportunity to develop. However, Alderson has an obligation to put a competitive team on the field, and to the extent that each day Terry Collins has to select 3 players from the list above, Alderson has not done that. Alderson claimed he was actively trying to improve the outfield last winter, and that he was “in” on Justin Upton and Michael Bourn. These players did not end up in blue and orange; perhaps the prices (players and/or money) were too high. But should Alderson have stopped there? It’s clear he knew what he didn’t have, and that he made a conscious choice to go north with this team. To every action there is a reaction. The reaction to Alderson’s choice can be seen in the standings, and as was the case today at Citi, also in the stands.

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The Mets tied it in the second inning when Lucas Duda hit a long leadoff home run. Mike Baxter worked a walk (what else?) and Ike Davis hit a long fly ball to dead center. Baxter was nearly doubled off at first as he was halfway to third, but a poor relay throw and some hustle got him back in safely.

A bunt hit and a dribbler set up Alex Rios, who doubled in a second Chicago run, and there it began to unravel. Conor Gilaspie brought two more in with a bloop double that dropped between three defenders.

The game went quiet from there for a while, with a David Wright walk representing the only base runner for either team until De Aza once again singled. He stole second and made it to third on a John Buck throwing error. A quick ground ball to first, a strikeout, and a lazy fly to left field kept him there, though. Hefner’s night would be done after six innings, having given up 8 hits, 4 earned runs, 5 strikeouts, and an intentional walk.

May 8, 2013; Flushing, NY,USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Jeremy Hefner (53) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Chicago White Sox at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

Jake Peavy rolled after the Duda home run, shutting down the Mets’ lineup almost completely. Marlon Byrd hit a pinch hit double to lead off the sixth (only the second Met hit to that point), but was ultimately stranded at third. Peavy struck out Lucas Duda and John Buck in the seventh, but was removed after Mike Baxter hit an infield single. Ike Davis grounded out before a threat could be mounted. Peavy’s final line: 6.2 IP, 3H, 1ER, 2BB, 6K.

Scott Atchison allowed a run on three two-out singles in the seventh before Scott Rice ended the inning by striking out Dewayne Wise with runners on the corners. LaTroy Hawkins pitched a clean eighth, and the Mets were able to get a run on back to back hits by Ruben Tejada and Justin Turner (Turner should’ve doubled, but he took a hard fall rounding first base and had to retreat). After back to back strikeouts, David Wright worked a walk, but Lucas Duda struck out to end the threat.

Jeurys Familia gave up a one-out home run to Alex Rios in the ninth to end the scoring. Addison Reed came on to pitch the ninth, and gave up a run on a Mike Baxter triple and a Ruben Tejada single. Through a Justin Turner single and defensive indifference, the Mets had runners on second and third before Juan Lagares struck out to end it.

Notes:

• Lucas Duda’s second inning home run was his seventh of the season. He didn’t hit his seventh last season until May 30th. His strikeout numbers have been high (27.8%), but that won’t be much of an issue as long as his OBP is above .390 and he’s on pace for 37 home runs (assuming 600 PA).
• Jeremy Hefner was a victim of terrible luck in the third inning. The inning got out of hand thanks to a slow roller to first and a blooper to center that got caught between Ruben Tejada and Jordany Valdespin. It was a night where Hefner outpitched his line, as he was continually victimized by soft hits.
• LaTroy Hawkins hasn’t allowed an earned run since April 10th. He’s thrown 9.2 innings since then, with seven hits against nine strikeouts. He has still not walked a batter.
• Justin Turner made his first appearance in the outfield, replacing Lucas Duda in the ninth inning. He didn’t get an opportunity to make a play.
• The Mets got the tying run to the plate in the eighth and ninth innings, but in both cases struck out to come up empty.

Thoughts:

I feel for Jeremy Hefner tonight. He had poor luck all night with slow rollers and well placed bloops. Through six starts, he’s still winless this year (as are the Mets). The Mets also continued to struggle offensively. They scored four runs in the series while stranding 14 runners. With left-handed starters going for the pirates for the next three days, I’m expecting Lucas Duda to get a day off at some point, and plenty of work for Juan Lagares and Andrew Brown (potentially at first base, where he took ground balls before tonight’s game).

The Mets will send Dillon Gee to the mound tomorrow against Pittsburgh. Jeff Locke will toe the rubber for the Buccos. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10PM.

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