The Mets (as of me starting this) are a somewhat bad 17-27 and into a rather difficult stretch, with their next seven games coming against the Braves and Yankees. They’ve underachieved (Ike Davis, Dillon Gee, and Ruben Tejada, I’m looking at you), and they’ve suffered some unfortunate injuries (Johan Santana and Matt Den Dekker, primarily). They’re semi-regularly running out Astros’ castoff Rick Ankiel. The rotation and bullpen have both underwhelmed, though both have shown reason for optimism of late.

Because of their struggles, a lot of flak (somewhat deservedly) has been thrown at General Manager (and golden retriever enthusiast) Sandy Alderson. He didn’t do enough to build depth in the rotation, and failed to address the outfield (Justin Upton and Michael Bourn rumors notwithstanding).

Claims are being made in social media and by bloggers/writers that Sandy Alderson has failed  in the short term; he inherited a team that won 79 games and has posted win totals of 77 and 74 in the two years since. Without some luck, 2013 is on the path to continue the downward trend.  Meanwhile, the Yankees are in first place thanks to the unlikely production of players like Vernon Wells, Brennan Boesch, Ichiro, and Travis Hafner. Is Brian Cashman just that much better at finding scrap heap talent?

Probably not. But that’s a discussion for another day, this article intends not to compare Sandy Alderson to anyone, but to take a look at some the moves he has made, and see whether or not they were actually bad decisions.

I hate these things, but it gets the point across rather well.

2012: Alderson signs Frank Francisco, trades for Ramon Ramirez

The 2012 bullpen was, in a word, terrible. Francisco and Ram-Ram were certainly a large part of that, contributing a combined 4.75 ERA in 106 innings that year. Ramirez was nontendered (and has since returned to San Francisco), Francisco is rehabbing what seems to be an endless string of elbow injuries.Neither of these players was a reclamation project, or a ‘buy low’ move. Both relievers had established track records of major league success, and were seen as multi-year acquisitions. Frank Frank was signed to a two-year deal for $12M, and Ramirez made $2.65M with another year of arbitration to follow.  Francisco had a 3.54 ERA and averaged 52 appearances in the previous four years. Ramirez was even better, averaging 69 appearances and a 2.77 ERA. Francisco was injured much of 2012 and ineffective when he was on the mound – his ERA jumped a full 2 runs to 5.53 – and Ramirez, while healthy, was just plain bad. His ERA was 4.26, he posted career highs in WHIP and BB/9 alongside a career worst 7.4 K/9 – Alderson chose to nontender him after the season.

2012: Alderson trades Angel Pagan for Andres Torres and Ramirez (see above), doesn’t sign other outfielders

The 2012 outfield turned out to be pretty, pretty bad. Scott Hairston was the unit’s best contributor, posting 2.0 fWAR alongside a career high 20 dingers. But, looking back at the results, was it due to poor planning? After the Mets traded away fan-apparently-un-favorite Carlos Beltran in 2011, the unit lacked established contributors. Jason Bay was struggling, Angel Pagan was struggling, Lucas Duda was a slow-footed rookie first baseman playing out of position (Trivia: the New York Mets featured five [5] different current/one-time first basemen during Johan Santana’s no-hitter. Can you name them? Answer at the bottom.) It would make sense for the Mets to have signed someone, right? But not so fast.

One popular idea was to re-sign Beltran (wouldn’t that have annoyed San Francisco!), but would it have been worth it? Let’s look at the post-trade statistics:

Lucas Duda: .300/.383/.500, 8 HR in 207 PA

Carlos Beltran: .323/.369/.551, 7 HR in 179 PA

Jason Bay: .283/.362/.476, 6 HR in 188 PA

Bringing Beltran back would’ve been great (he hit 32 home runs with an .842 OPS in 2012), but at the time it was a move that made little sense. The Mets were currently employing two (at the time) productive corner outfielders in Duda and Bay, and couldn’t reasonably play Beltran in center. Moving Duda to first base, at the time (and still, arguably) wasn’t doable with Ike Davis slated to return. Signing a better center fielder could’ve been in play, but the market was thin (Endy Chavez was floated as a legitimate [if not legitimate] option that offseason). For what it’s worth, Jason Bay carried a respectable (if unspectacular) .776 OPS until breaking a rib in late April; Lucas Duda’s edged above .800 until June 22nd, after which a poor 20-game stretch led to his demotion to Buffalo.

2013: Alderson attempts to fix the outfield

Similarly, the outfield came up again this past offseason. Though a healthy debate surrounds the circumstances of the Michael Bourn non-signing and Justin Upton non-signing, it’s fair to say that both decisions were the better for the long term. Signing Bourn would’ve cost roughly 40% of the Mets’ draft pool (as well as their #1 pick), and the Diamondbacks seemed fixated on getting Zack Wheeler in exchange for Upton.

Much flak was also handed out for allowing Scott Hairston to walk, and for not attempting to sign Cody Ross. Reclamation project Marlon Byrd has been better than both, however, being good for 4 home runs and 0.9 fWAR over 114 plate appearances compared to Ross and Hairston’s combined 4 (1 and 3, respectively) home runs and -0.2 fWAR (0.5 and -0.7, respectively) in 173 plate appearances.

The “throw everything at the wall and see what sticks” approach hasn’t been pretty, but it makes for meaningful research. Lucas Duda Collin Cowgill, Andrew Brown, Mike Baxter, Jordany Valdespin, Juan Lagares, Matt Den Dekker, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis are all under team control, and either pre-arbitration or will be arbitration-eligible for the first time. The responsible move is finding out which, if any, of these players can make a meaningful contribution at the major league level. (And, for what it’s worth, the outfield is improving. Their OPS in May through Monday’s game is 88 points higher than it was in April).

2013: Sandy Alderson fails to acquire quality pitching depth

August 29, 2012; Philadelphia, PA USA; New York Mets relief pitcher Frank Francisco (48) reacts after getting the final out in the ninth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Mets defeated the Phillies, 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

The Mets bullpen has performed poorly, but much of the blame falls on homegrown lefties Josh Edgin and Robert Carson. Alderson’s five primary acquisitions: Greg Burke, Scott Atchison, Scott Rice, LaTroy Hawkins, and Brandon Lyon (the only guaranteed contract) have thrown 88.1 innings thus far with a 3.57 ERA (3.52 FIP).

The rotation has struggled, but it’s largely been the result of Johan Santana’s unfortunate re-injury. While fair to criticize Sandy for failing to acquire quality replacement depth, his options at that point were somewhat limited. He opted not to re-sign Chris Young (who currently sports a 7.26 ERA and 1.906 WHIP in AAA Syracuse), nor to trade for odd-man-out-at-the-time Chris Capuano whose 4.84 ERA is overshadowed by early health issues. Capuano’s contract ($6M with a $1M buyout) was also unwieldy given Zack Wheeler’s impending promotion. Aaron Laffey, making a pair of starts in place of the injured Shaun Marcum, provided laffable results (though the Mets did go 1-1 in those games). While Laffey is certainly no Sandy Koufax, his career numbers (4.45 career ERA, 1.520 WHIP) suggest a level of basic competence that, once again, failed to materialize on the Citi Field mound.

It’s easy to criticize Alderson’s regime for failing to make the proper moves or taking the proper risks, but to suggest that he hasn’t tried is short-sighted and unfair. Somewhat unorthodox methods in some cases, but it’s far from a stretch to say that had any of Alderson’s moves gone right, our discussions might be entirely different. On the same hand, let’s take a moment to note the decisions that have panned out: moving Daniel Murphy to second base, signing a 20-year-old Rafael Montero, getting potential aces in Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard (as well as blue chip catching prospect Travis d’Arnaud). Finding a 20-home-run season in Scott Hairston.

It’s fair to be upset at how the Reyes situation was handled, though letting him walk was far from an unreasonable baseball decision. Had “More Cowgill” not been too much, had the bullpen signings of 2012 not tried so hard to channel their inner Steve Blass, had Jason Bay not broken his ribs last April, had Johan Santana’s shoulder held up, Had Davis, Niese, Gee, and Tejada not regressed mightily, had Andres Torres not floundered at the plate, Citi Field would be a much different place. But don’t collect your pitchforks and torches because every single “low-risk” decision floundered and took a bit of us alon with it. Good decisions go wrong (see: Jason Bay signing), but for so many to do so in such a concentrated timeframe is extraordinary. Hold Sandy accountable – they’re his decisions – but recognize that what has happened hasn’t been the result of poor oversight, or a lack of activity, but by virtually every shrewd, collected baseball decision not only backfiring, but imploding so inexplicably.

Damn.

Thanks for reading! Be sure to Like Rising Apple’s Facebook page and follow@RisingAppleBlog on Twitter to keep up with the latest news, rumors, and opinion.

August 22, 2012; New York, NY, USA; New York Mets general manager Sandy Alderson speaks about pitcher Johan Santana (not pictured) during a press conference before a game against the Colorado Rockies at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Alderson has made some astute, future-oriented moves as Mets’ GM. He acquired Zack Wheeler for Carlos Beltran. It should be noted that Beltran has had two good years since being traded, and Wheeler has yet to throw a big-league pitch. However, all signs point to this being a good trade for New York. Sandy also seems to have fleeced the Blue Jays, getting four quality players for a struggling RA Dickey, and marginal major-leaguers Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas. Most of Alderson’s moves have centered on obtaining solid pitching. He has some very definite ideas about how to build an offense as well.

Alderson is very up front about his belief that the home run should be a primary offensive weapon. His successful Athletics teams rode that style of baseball to their success, with sluggers such as Mark McGwire and Jose Canseco. After his first year as GM of the Mets, Alderson requested that Citi Field’s fences be brought in to allow for more home runs.

Opinion: The game is significantly different in 2013 than it was in 1988. In the late 1980s, baseball was entering its tainted era, when players, even some who had never shown such prowess before (Brady Anderson), were hitting home runs at record paces. Ballparks are bigger now, and recent champions (San Francisco, St. Louis) have not been close to leading their leagues in home runs. The pendulum seems to have shifted back to pitching. One is left to wonder if Alderson is applying an outdated philosophy to the current Mets. Terry Collins has expressed his opinion, that reliance on home runs leads to the alarming strikeout rate that the club is experiencing.

Let’s get back to transparency. Alderson has, with club support, done an outstanding job of connecting with the fans. He has joined the social media world, and done so with a sense of humor. The team does blogger events, during which Alderson interacts with bloggers and fans, answering questions and posing for pictures. Here is where Alderson becomes something of a salesman, a quintessential politician. He smiles, and tells people what they want to hear. Often, he may be finding ways to soft-sell difficult messages. However, this isn’t consistent with being transparent. Sophisticated fans figure this out, and then the salesman seems anything but transparent. Let’s look at a couple of examples.

Late 2011, with Jose Reyes‘s free agency looming.

September 20, 2011: Alderson joins the broadcast booth during the Mets/Cardinals game. When asked about his off-season plans, he says signing Reyes is job one, two, and three. The next day Alderson is on WFAN with Mike Francesa, and reiterates his strong desire to re-sign Reyes. He calls October “the month of Reyes”. Earlier that season, after Reyes made it clear he would not negotiate in-season, Alderson states that he approached Reyes about a contract, and was rebuffed. After the 2011 season, Alderson never makes an offer to Reyes, and Reyes signs with the Marlins.

Opinion: Alderson never intended to sign Reyes. He made it seem that he did want to do so, to keep the fans quiet and attending games. He waited after the season, he waited a long time, until a team made an offer to Reyes. He then pointed to that offer and said it was too much. But how did he know what Reyes may have taken, since he never made an offer? Alderson sold the fans that he refused to over-pay for Reyes, when in reality, the organization knew Reyes did not fit the budget. Transparency?

Summer of 2012: The Mets are shocking the baseball world, at 6 games over .500. However, the bullpen is a severely weak spot, and the feeling is that if the bullpen can be shored up, the Mets could compete. Alderson says that he has “deployed his scouts to see what’s available”. He never makes a deal.

Opinion: This one is almost insulting. All teams have scouts all over baseball. Alderson knew who was available, but had no intention of investing a penny in the 2012 Mets. The “scout deployment” was a ruse to buy time, time for the Mets to fade. Alderson wanted the need to make a move fade away also. The Mets sadly accommodated. The fans were briefly silenced, and distracted by the crumbling team. But later, Alderson incurred some wrath, as people sensed that the organization didn’t believe in its own team. Transparency?

May 13th on WFAN, Alderson says that Wheeler’s arrival in New York will be the result of a “confluence of factors”. He indicates that “Super Two” status for Wheeler is a very minor factor.

Opinion: Also on May 13th, reports came out that several major-league sources say that the Mets will call Wheeler up in mid June to avoid Super Two status. I’m going with the major-league sources.

Turning to other current matters, Alderson is being called on the carpet for some curious moves. Here are two of them.

Mets recall Shaun Marcum in April.

Opinion: Marcum is not doing well, and Alderson and Collins point to Marcum’s lack of innings in spring training due to injury. Marcum is in spring training in the major leagues, in games that count. Why isn’t Marcum in Las Vegas or Binghampton, getting his innings there, while Collin McHugh, pitching well in Vegas, gets a shot in New York?

Juan Lagares is in the major leagues. Alderson says on WFAN that Lagares is not ready.

Opinion: Why is Lagares being allowed to struggle, and play part-time, in New York? Yes, Lagares can play defense. But he’s in over his head at the plate. What value is coming from watching him fail, when he could play in Vegas and work on his offensive skills? Collin Cowgill could be with the big club. Yes, he was not hitting, and was sent down. Lagares doesn’t hit either, and needs time to develop. Why does Alderson call up players who, by his own words, are not ready?

Alderson has to be given adequate time to rebuild this organization, as any GM would when rebuilding any organization. The usual time frame is 5 years, so Alderson is entitled to at least 2 more years. However, improvement needs to start soon, since the current version of the Mets is worse than the version he inherited. One thing is for sure, the fans are watching Alderson-and the clock.

Commentary from Danny Abriano:

I agree with the majority of the piece, but I have to chime in on two issues: the Reyes situation, and Alderson’s comments regarding Zack Wheeler and Super Two status.

As far as Reyes is concerned, it needs to be pointed out that although the Mets didn’t fax Reyes’ agents an official offer, Sandy Alderson made it known that the Mets were willing to give Reyes a guaranteed five year deal that would’ve approached $100 million if the sixth year option kicked in.  Whether or not that offer was on paper is a matter of semantics.  The Mets made it known what they were willing to offer and Reyes had no interest.  There’s no reason to claim Alderson was lying during the season or being intentionally misleading.  If you recall, the Mets were still in the middle of the Bernard Madoff mess when it was time to pony up for Reyes.  So, even if Alderson wanted to outbid Miami, ownership would’ve likely vetoed it due to a lack of funds.

On the Zack Wheeler/Super Two stuff not being a factor regarding Wheeler’s promotion date, Alderson is probably full of it.  However, stating that Super Two isn’t a factor is something he has to say.  If Alderson intimated that the Mets were keeping Wheeler down because of financial reasons, the players uni0n would go insane.

Now, Alderson and the lieutenants he brought in have made a few tremendous trades (one for Wheeler, the other for Travis d’Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard, and Wuilmer Becerra).  They’ve held on to their valuable minor league chips.  They extended David Wright long term.  Aside from that, the players they’ve brought in have been incredibly underwhelming and a collective disappointment.  Beginning next year, Alderson and Co. will be judged.  If there aren’t major strides made, it’ll be time to consider a change at the top.

Thanks for reading! Be sure to Like Rising Apple’s Facebook page and follow@RisingAppleBlog on Twitter to keep up with the latest news, rumors, and opinion.

(more…)