September 30, 2012; Baltimore, MD, USA; Boston Red Sox right fielder Cody Ross (7) in the on-deck circle in the third inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles defeated the Red Sox 6 – 3. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

The Ross signing, in my opinion, is a loss for the Mets. Ross is a solid defensive outfielder, who can play all three positions. In addition, Ross is a RH hitter, and posted  a line of .267, 22 HR and 81 RBI. Those numbers would have looked nice in the Mets lineup, particularly when compared to the historical production of the current crop of outfielders slated for 2013, Lucas Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and Mike Baxter. All of the currently projected outfielders for 2013 are LH hitters. So where does Sandy turn now?

One option would be Scott Hairston. In Matt Musico’s piece here on Rising Apple, Matt indicates that Hairston is looking for a two-year deal, possibly worth $10 million. While Hairston had a fine year in 2012, you have to ask yourself if commiting that kind of money to Hairston is wise. Hairston in known to mash LH pitching, but can struggle against RH pitching. Now that Arizona has a collection of outfielders, they may be looking to part with one of them in a trade. Two names that have popped up as trade candidates are Jason Kubel and Justin Upton. Kubel clubbed 30 HRs in 2012, and drove in 90 runs. While those numbers are impressive, Kubel is a poor defensive outfielder. The thought of him in the large Citi Field outfield is quite unsettling to me. Upton, on the other hand, is very athletic, and posted 17 HRs and a .280 BA in 2012. I think Upton is a far better fit for the Mets, who need speed and defensive prowess in the outfield. Other available options for the Mets include Michael Bourn and possibly Coco Crisp. Bourn may be out of the Mets price range, but Crisp may make sense for New York. His 39 SBs would bring speed to the club, and Crisp is a well-respected veteran who should fit nicely in the clubhouse.

As we approach the Christmas holiday, the Mets outfield is in need of work, and the options are slowly dwindling. Sandy Alderrson may have something up his sleeve to address the outfield, and there are almost two months left before pitchers and catchers report. No need for us to panic, right? Right? Let’s see what the new year brings in the way of outfield help. In the meantime, best wishes for a safe and happy holiday season.

May 29, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA: Oakland Athletics left fielder Collin Cowgill (12) hits a RBI single in the seventh inning against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. The Twins won 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

In Marte, Alderson gave up a mid-level prospect with upside, albeit one with a muddled path to the major leagues (David Wright appears to have third base on lockdown, and Ike Davis will be hard to unseat at first base). In Cowgill, Alderson received something the Mets lack entirely: a righty-hitting outfielder. Toby Hyde over at Mets Minor League Blog provides some commentary on the trade and looks at Cowgill’s background statistically. In short, Collin Cowgill seems like a  righty hitting Mike Baxter – an outfielder with somewhat disparate platoon splits (.281/.330/.536 vs LHP, .357/.402/.456 vs. RHP in the minors, but with an unsustainable .376 BABIP against righties). In limited major league time, the splits are .298/.379/.405 and. .223/.273/.241, respectively. So, in essence, the Mets have added a potential second-half of a platoon to go with their three platoonable left-handed outfielders. The bad news is that the Mets still don’t appear to have an everyday outfielder on their roster (though if Lucas Dudacan hit to his potential it would at least offset his defense). The good news is, they can fill at least one spot every day. Here’s a list of the current Mets outfielders and their platoon splits (major league, career):

September 30, 2012; Baltimore, MD, USA; Boston Red Sox right fielder Cody Ross (7) at bat in the eighth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles defeated the Red Sox 6 – 3. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

If we’re using OPS to determine the outfield, it looks like this: vs. RHP: Duda (.805), Kirk Nieuwenhuis (.740), Mike Baxter (.810)vs. LHP: Duda (.657), Nieuwenhuis (.515), Cowgill (.784) Seeing as how both Duda and Nieuwenhuis are both everyday outfielders in this scenario, and that they’ve both been below-average hitters against left-handed pitching in the past, it seems prudent for Sandy Alderson to add another right-handed outfielder. I scoured the list of free agent outfielders and assembled a list of all free agent right-handed outfielders with positive career bWAR and (in my opinion) a reasonable chance of success in 2013. The list is: Scott Hairston, Cody Ross, Nick Swisher, Austin Kearns, and Juan Rivera. Because his name is brought up often, I also included Michael Bourn.

It’s safe to say that Bourn and Swisher are out of the Mets’ range: they’re both seeking larger, multi-year deals and would cost the Mets their first round draft pick as they both rejected their qualifying offers. (If that weren’t bad enough, the pick would go to either the Yankees or Atlanta.) From looking at the chart (I’m omitting Swisher and Bourn for reasons explained above), we see that Cody Ross is the best hitter against left-handed pitching, followed by Hairston, Rivera, and Austin Kearns (I’m simply ranking them by career OPS). Against right-handed pitching, the order is Kearns, Rivera, Ross, then Hairston. All four are worse than Lucas Duda, and though Kearns has a higher OPS than Nieuwenhuis, he can’t play center (he logged 33 innings in center field in 2010, and none since). To get a better picture of what we’re trying to assemble, let’s combine the charts, and sort it by OPS:

Oct. 3, 2012; Miami, FL, USA; New York Mets right fielder Lucas Duda (21) at bat against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. The Mets won 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

We know that Baxter, Duda, and Nieuwenhuis should be on the roster, as should newly acquired Cowgill. As such, the Mets have room for one outfielder, and possibly two should changes be made. Looking at the chart, Ross and Hairston appear to be the best options. Both players are looking for multi-year deals, and are said to be seeking around the same amount of money. That said, Cody Ross’ better numbers vs. right-handed pitching (in a 56% larger sample) make him the more desirable option. Should Ross be out of the Mets range, bringing back Scott Hairston would still be a significant improvement to the current outfield situation. Juan Rivera and Austin Kearns could be safe short-term options if the Mets are looking to be fiscally conservative in 2013, but are probably not even medium-term options due to their apparent lack of power or versatility. So, assuming the Mets do sign Ross, we can assume the outfield to be: vs. RHP: Duda (.805), Nieuwenhuis (.740), Baxter (.810) vs. LHP: Duda (.657), Cowgill (.784), Ross (.928) Between these five outfielders, the Mets would have two above-average outfield bats in the lineup each day. Should Baxter or Duda struggle early in 2013, the Mets have in Ross a veteran capable of playing every day. With the potential addition of d’Arnaud to the lineup, it would take some of the pressure off the outfield to provide an elite bat. The lineups would probably look something akin to:

*I couldn’t find a projection for d’Arnaud in ’13, and I don’t know enough to project one myself. It’s far too early to accurately predict next year’s lineup, but it’s starting to look like the Mets might only be one or two pieces away from fielding a competitive everyday lineup (a right-handed 1B/OF would help fill a big hole.) If this is where the Mets stand in April, the lineup would at least be good enough to provide respectability in an increasingly-competitive National League East. Sandy Alderson’s plan hasn’t turned the Mets around overnight, and they may not make the playoffs next year, but Alderson is only a move or two away from showing the fans that he’s serious about not punting 2013.

A key component of any upgrade strategy is the availability of financial resources. According to Adam Rubin, the Mets current payroll commitment can be estimated at around $90.3 million for 2013. Factoring in projections that payroll may be at around $100 million this year, that leaves Sandy Alderson about $10 million to spend. The question now facing the Mets GM is, how does one go about doing the work that needs to be done with limited dollars to spend?

Looking at the free-agent market, Cody Ross and/or Michael Bourn would be

Aug 29, 2012; San Diego, CA, USA; Atlanta Braves center fielder Michael Bourn (24) walks back to the dugout after striking out in the eighth inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

ideal for the Mets. Ross is more of a corner outfielder (who can play CF), and Bourn is a natural center fielder, with outstanding speed and a great glove. Bourn would also fill a need at leadoff, and allow the Mets to drop Ruben Tejada in the order. The Phillies are very interested in Ross, so assuming he signs with Philadelphia, let’s take a closer look at Bourn. Bourn will be 30 in 11 days, so he’s very much in his prime. Last year, Bourn hit .274 in Atlanta’s leadoff spot, while stealing 42 bases and being caught 13 times. Bourn also hit 9 HRs for the Braves. The issue with Bourn is that he’s represented by Scott Boras, and several teams (Reds, Cubs, Mariners) are said to be interested. It’s unlikely Bourn would accpet a shorter-term deal to sign with the Mets, who are generally reluctant to dole out long-term contracts.

All of this said, where does Sandy Alderson turn to populate his outfield, currently staffed by Lucas Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and Mike Baxter? The trade market is certainly a possibility, but with Dickey likely gone, Alderson may not have the chips to play in that high-stakes game. Alderson seems to take a methodical approach to building a team, one move, one player at a time. If he pulls off the rumored deal with Toronto, it would be a major coup for the Mets. However, it would be one major coup. Alderson may need to have a few more tricks up his sleeve to put a competitive outfield on the Citi Field grass in 2013.