May 22, 2013; New York, NY, USA; New York Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy (28) hits a sacrifice fly against the Cincinnati Reds during the fifth inning of a game at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

As part of the desperate search for good news that has become a daily routine for Mets fans, the question should be asked if Daniel Murphy will get a spot on the National League All-Star team. David Wright and Matt Harvey are almost certainly locks for a Midsummer Classic appearance, and with Major League Baseball maybe looking to put as many home players as they can in the game, Murphy calling Citi Field his baseball home may be enough to tip the scales in his favor. But will he get the nod? And more importantly, would he deserve it?

At first glance I’ve been tempted to, and often have, exclaimed, “Why, of course!” With his numbers as rock-solid as they are and skills with a glove up to major-league standards, why shouldn’t he get to shine in the limelight of playing at home in his first All-Star Game? Indeed, Murphy does have a good slate of statistics: his .302 batting average is second amongst all NL second basemen, his 14 doubles are fourth in the entire league, and he has turned an NL-best 30 double plays.

But Murphy is far from the only second baseman with the numbers to earn him one of baseball’s Golden Tickets. While Daniel’s second half of May has been superhuman, Marco Scutaro of the Giants has been superhuman the whole month. In 18 May games, Scutaro is hitting .453 with a 1.119 OPS, 14 runs, five doubles, two triples, a home run, and 7 RBIs. His resulting .331 season average puts him miles ahead of every other NL second baseman, Murphy included.

May 8, 2013; Chicago, IL, USA; St. Louis Cardinals second baseman Matt Carpenter (13) hits a triple against the Chicago Cubs during the seventh inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Rob Grabowski-USA TODAY Sports

Meanwhile, a handful of other middle (infield)-men who bubble under Murph in batting average do overtake him in other highly-regarded stats. The biggest threat comes from Matt Carpenter of St. Louis, who is hitting .300 and leads N.L. second basemen in doubles (15), OPS (.828), and WAR (2.0). Murphy ranks only fifth in OPS (.798) and fourth in WAR (1.3); his biggest shortfall in the former category is a lack of walks – he’s drawn only eight bases on balls all season, second to last for regulars at his position, putting him at a too-low .333 OBP.  That drags down his very good SLG (.465 to Carpenter’s .441) when combined into OPS.

Carpenter is just in the lead of a pack that’s nipping at the heels of our protagonist. Cincinnati’s Brandon Phillips boasts a position-leading 40 RBI’s, nearly double Murphy’s total of 21. Jedd Gyorko is quietly giving the Padres a good effort and has an .801 OPS to show for it. And as always, lurking in the shadows is Chase Utley of the Phillies, older but still effective with seven home runs and a position-leading .475 SLG. Phillips and Utley also have the name recognition that is so crucial in fan voting, and there is nothing residents of Philadelphia would take delight in more (except maybe a decent Eagles team) than seeing their guy starting at second base in an All-Star Game hosted by their hated New York rivals.

So let’s answer both questions. First, does Daniel Murphy deserve to be an All-Star? He’s borderline, strong in a lot of categories but not the best in any of them, and that constitutes an emphatic “maybe” (as emphatic as that word can sound). Second, will Daniel Murphy make the All-Star team? With Scutaro, Phillips, and Utley as competition, probably not on the fan vote. It would take selection by the National League manager, San Francisco’s Bruce Bochy, for that dream to be realized.

Keeping up his hot streak would go a long way towards earning that selection, and that’s all Murph can really do at this point. With his team in the toilet, Daniel Murphy’s daily mission is to give it his all and produce as many small victories as he can. Maybe those small victories will eventually start showing up again in the win column of the New York Mets.

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The Mets (as of me starting this) are a somewhat bad 17-27 and into a rather difficult stretch, with their next seven games coming against the Braves and Yankees. They’ve underachieved (Ike Davis, Dillon Gee, and Ruben Tejada, I’m looking at you), and they’ve suffered some unfortunate injuries (Johan Santana and Matt Den Dekker, primarily). They’re semi-regularly running out Astros’ castoff Rick Ankiel. The rotation and bullpen have both underwhelmed, though both have shown reason for optimism of late.

Because of their struggles, a lot of flak (somewhat deservedly) has been thrown at General Manager (and golden retriever enthusiast) Sandy Alderson. He didn’t do enough to build depth in the rotation, and failed to address the outfield (Justin Upton and Michael Bourn rumors notwithstanding).

Claims are being made in social media and by bloggers/writers that Sandy Alderson has failed  in the short term; he inherited a team that won 79 games and has posted win totals of 77 and 74 in the two years since. Without some luck, 2013 is on the path to continue the downward trend.  Meanwhile, the Yankees are in first place thanks to the unlikely production of players like Vernon Wells, Brennan Boesch, Ichiro, and Travis Hafner. Is Brian Cashman just that much better at finding scrap heap talent?

Probably not. But that’s a discussion for another day, this article intends not to compare Sandy Alderson to anyone, but to take a look at some the moves he has made, and see whether or not they were actually bad decisions.

I hate these things, but it gets the point across rather well.

2012: Alderson signs Frank Francisco, trades for Ramon Ramirez

The 2012 bullpen was, in a word, terrible. Francisco and Ram-Ram were certainly a large part of that, contributing a combined 4.75 ERA in 106 innings that year. Ramirez was nontendered (and has since returned to San Francisco), Francisco is rehabbing what seems to be an endless string of elbow injuries.Neither of these players was a reclamation project, or a ‘buy low’ move. Both relievers had established track records of major league success, and were seen as multi-year acquisitions. Frank Frank was signed to a two-year deal for $12M, and Ramirez made $2.65M with another year of arbitration to follow.  Francisco had a 3.54 ERA and averaged 52 appearances in the previous four years. Ramirez was even better, averaging 69 appearances and a 2.77 ERA. Francisco was injured much of 2012 and ineffective when he was on the mound – his ERA jumped a full 2 runs to 5.53 – and Ramirez, while healthy, was just plain bad. His ERA was 4.26, he posted career highs in WHIP and BB/9 alongside a career worst 7.4 K/9 – Alderson chose to nontender him after the season.

2012: Alderson trades Angel Pagan for Andres Torres and Ramirez (see above), doesn’t sign other outfielders

The 2012 outfield turned out to be pretty, pretty bad. Scott Hairston was the unit’s best contributor, posting 2.0 fWAR alongside a career high 20 dingers. But, looking back at the results, was it due to poor planning? After the Mets traded away fan-apparently-un-favorite Carlos Beltran in 2011, the unit lacked established contributors. Jason Bay was struggling, Angel Pagan was struggling, Lucas Duda was a slow-footed rookie first baseman playing out of position (Trivia: the New York Mets featured five [5] different current/one-time first basemen during Johan Santana’s no-hitter. Can you name them? Answer at the bottom.) It would make sense for the Mets to have signed someone, right? But not so fast.

One popular idea was to re-sign Beltran (wouldn’t that have annoyed San Francisco!), but would it have been worth it? Let’s look at the post-trade statistics:

Lucas Duda: .300/.383/.500, 8 HR in 207 PA

Carlos Beltran: .323/.369/.551, 7 HR in 179 PA

Jason Bay: .283/.362/.476, 6 HR in 188 PA

Bringing Beltran back would’ve been great (he hit 32 home runs with an .842 OPS in 2012), but at the time it was a move that made little sense. The Mets were currently employing two (at the time) productive corner outfielders in Duda and Bay, and couldn’t reasonably play Beltran in center. Moving Duda to first base, at the time (and still, arguably) wasn’t doable with Ike Davis slated to return. Signing a better center fielder could’ve been in play, but the market was thin (Endy Chavez was floated as a legitimate [if not legitimate] option that offseason). For what it’s worth, Jason Bay carried a respectable (if unspectacular) .776 OPS until breaking a rib in late April; Lucas Duda’s edged above .800 until June 22nd, after which a poor 20-game stretch led to his demotion to Buffalo.

2013: Alderson attempts to fix the outfield

Similarly, the outfield came up again this past offseason. Though a healthy debate surrounds the circumstances of the Michael Bourn non-signing and Justin Upton non-signing, it’s fair to say that both decisions were the better for the long term. Signing Bourn would’ve cost roughly 40% of the Mets’ draft pool (as well as their #1 pick), and the Diamondbacks seemed fixated on getting Zack Wheeler in exchange for Upton.

Much flak was also handed out for allowing Scott Hairston to walk, and for not attempting to sign Cody Ross. Reclamation project Marlon Byrd has been better than both, however, being good for 4 home runs and 0.9 fWAR over 114 plate appearances compared to Ross and Hairston’s combined 4 (1 and 3, respectively) home runs and -0.2 fWAR (0.5 and -0.7, respectively) in 173 plate appearances.

The “throw everything at the wall and see what sticks” approach hasn’t been pretty, but it makes for meaningful research. Lucas Duda Collin Cowgill, Andrew Brown, Mike Baxter, Jordany Valdespin, Juan Lagares, Matt Den Dekker, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis are all under team control, and either pre-arbitration or will be arbitration-eligible for the first time. The responsible move is finding out which, if any, of these players can make a meaningful contribution at the major league level. (And, for what it’s worth, the outfield is improving. Their OPS in May through Monday’s game is 88 points higher than it was in April).

2013: Sandy Alderson fails to acquire quality pitching depth

August 29, 2012; Philadelphia, PA USA; New York Mets relief pitcher Frank Francisco (48) reacts after getting the final out in the ninth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Mets defeated the Phillies, 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

The Mets bullpen has performed poorly, but much of the blame falls on homegrown lefties Josh Edgin and Robert Carson. Alderson’s five primary acquisitions: Greg Burke, Scott Atchison, Scott Rice, LaTroy Hawkins, and Brandon Lyon (the only guaranteed contract) have thrown 88.1 innings thus far with a 3.57 ERA (3.52 FIP).

The rotation has struggled, but it’s largely been the result of Johan Santana’s unfortunate re-injury. While fair to criticize Sandy for failing to acquire quality replacement depth, his options at that point were somewhat limited. He opted not to re-sign Chris Young (who currently sports a 7.26 ERA and 1.906 WHIP in AAA Syracuse), nor to trade for odd-man-out-at-the-time Chris Capuano whose 4.84 ERA is overshadowed by early health issues. Capuano’s contract ($6M with a $1M buyout) was also unwieldy given Zack Wheeler’s impending promotion. Aaron Laffey, making a pair of starts in place of the injured Shaun Marcum, provided laffable results (though the Mets did go 1-1 in those games). While Laffey is certainly no Sandy Koufax, his career numbers (4.45 career ERA, 1.520 WHIP) suggest a level of basic competence that, once again, failed to materialize on the Citi Field mound.

It’s easy to criticize Alderson’s regime for failing to make the proper moves or taking the proper risks, but to suggest that he hasn’t tried is short-sighted and unfair. Somewhat unorthodox methods in some cases, but it’s far from a stretch to say that had any of Alderson’s moves gone right, our discussions might be entirely different. On the same hand, let’s take a moment to note the decisions that have panned out: moving Daniel Murphy to second base, signing a 20-year-old Rafael Montero, getting potential aces in Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard (as well as blue chip catching prospect Travis d’Arnaud). Finding a 20-home-run season in Scott Hairston.

It’s fair to be upset at how the Reyes situation was handled, though letting him walk was far from an unreasonable baseball decision. Had “More Cowgill” not been too much, had the bullpen signings of 2012 not tried so hard to channel their inner Steve Blass, had Jason Bay not broken his ribs last April, had Johan Santana’s shoulder held up, Had Davis, Niese, Gee, and Tejada not regressed mightily, had Andres Torres not floundered at the plate, Citi Field would be a much different place. But don’t collect your pitchforks and torches because every single “low-risk” decision floundered and took a bit of us alon with it. Good decisions go wrong (see: Jason Bay signing), but for so many to do so in such a concentrated timeframe is extraordinary. Hold Sandy accountable – they’re his decisions – but recognize that what has happened hasn’t been the result of poor oversight, or a lack of activity, but by virtually every shrewd, collected baseball decision not only backfiring, but imploding so inexplicably.

Damn.

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At the moment, fans are a mixture of angry, disillusioned, and apathetic.  It can be argued that the Mets’ final 2013 record will have no bearing on what the 2014 team can accomplish (see the 1984 Mets as an example).  However, with 2014 having been pegged as the year the Mets would turn this thing around, a truly horrendous 2013 will affect how fans view next year and beyond.  In addition, although it’s ordinarily money that talks, if the Mets were to finish with close to 100 losses, it would be more challenging when it came time to add talent via free agency – which is something the Mets will be looking to do.

May 15, 2013; St. Louis, MO, USA; New York Mets manager Terry Collins (10) looks on before a game against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

In the weeks and months ahead, the Mets will likely promote Zack Wheeler, Travis d’Arnaud, and Rafael Montero to the major league squad (probably in that order).  This season is supposed to be a transition to bigger and better things, not a tumble backwards down a well into a pit of despair.  If things keep going the way they are, this season won’t be viewed as a bridge to the future, It’ll be viewed as a bridge to nowhere.

The Mets are having trouble selling tickets and they’re having trouble relating to their fans.  Even if they were to finish with a record similar to last year’s (74-88), it’d be difficult to market the 2014 edition.  If they finish far worse than they did last year, it’ll make that job nearly impossible.  And if they finish with a terrible record while doing nothing proactive to address it, the fans will be livid.

It was apparent coming into the season that the Mets lacked the talent necessary to legitimately contend.  If their bad play was simply a matter of performance, it’d be one thing.  The problem, is that their performance has been mixed with both a failure to execute, and at times boneheaded on field displays that have left the coaches and fans in stunned disbelief.

Recently, there have been a rash of inexcusable mistakes.  Last week, John Buck was doubled off second base after not looking back when a line drive was hit to the outfield.  A few days ago, Ike Davis was caught loitering near first base, resulting in an obstruction call.  Just today, Daniel Murphy fell asleep at second base when he had a runner caught in a rundown, Ruben Tejada almost got picked off two separate bases (and failed to slide back in on the second occasion), and Ike Davis inexplicably watched as the game deciding hit trickled past his glove.  The Mets aren’t just losing, they’re sleepwalking at times.  Fair or not, that’s a reflection of the manager.

By all accounts, Terry Collins is a decent man and a hard working, no nonsense manager.  As has been pointed out in the past, Collins isn’t an X’s and O’s guy who will outsmart the opposition.  His value is as a motivator.  Without that ability, his presence in the dugout is pointless.  His last managerial tenure (in Anaheim) ended when the players staged a mutiny.  Late last season, Collins was asked if the team had quit on him.  He responded by telling the assembled media that they’d have to ask the players.  This season, the same lazy, mistake filled play that’s afflicted the Mets for years is again manifesting itself.  So, how bad will this be allowed to get before a change is made?

Consider this: The Mets find themselves 10 games under .500 this early in the season for the first time since 2001.  Now think back to how atrocious 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2009 were.  All of those teams got off to better starts than the 2013 Mets.  That’s alarming.

If the Mets continue down this path (for instance, if the team is 22-40 three weeks from now), there has to be a change.  This isn’t a call for Wally Backman or Tim Teufel, Pedro Lopez, or Bob Geren.  It’s simply a call for change if it’s merited.  The Mets can’t allow this season to spiral completely out of control.  If they do, it has the potential to poison next season before it even begins.

At the moment, it appears that the odds of Terry Collins being the manager beyond 2013 are extremely slim.  He knows that, and so do the players and the fans.  Unless the team picks up its play, there’s no reason to allow Collins to ride out the string as a lame duck who won’t be having his contract renewed.

If the Mets continue to play as if they’re tuned out at times, the wise move would be to relieve Collins of his duties and replace him with an interim manager who the Mets feel might be the answer for 2014 and beyond.  Install that person early, and evaluate him.  If their handling of the job merits a permanent tag, award it.  If not, find someone else.  The one thing the Mets shouldn’t do, though, is allow this season to become a fiasco while the team is being led by someone who doesn’t fit in their future plans.

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