Where do the Mets Go from Here?

I framed this article out on Saturday night as I was leaving the freezing and windy Citi Field.  Since then, the Mets have won two games in come from behind fashion to improve their record from 17-29 to 19-29.  The wins came against the Braves and Yankees, and that always feels good.  I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility for the Mets to climb out of the hole they’ve dug for themselves while making their final record respectable.  Still, this is a team in flux, and the question has to be asked: Where do the Mets go from here?

Saturday night at Citi Field felt like self inflicted torture, not a ballgame.  The weather set the tone and the Mets took it from there, first losing the suspended game and then getting pounded in the regularly scheduled affair.  Braves pitcher Mike Minor provided the indignity of the second game of the night, homering off Mets starter Dillon Gee to produce the first two runs of the game (the only ones Atlanta would need).  Gee is one of a plethora of players who haven’t earned a thing as far as their place in 2014 (and the rest of this year) is concerned.  Who exactly can the Mets count on going forward?  Here are a few lists…

Of the players currently on the roster, who deserves to be here in 2014?

David Wright, Daniel Murphy, Matt Harvey, Jonathon Niese, and Bobby Parnell.

Of the players in the minors who are close to contributing, who will likely be here at the beginning of 2014?

Zack Wheeler, Travis d’Arnaud, and Rafael Montero.

…Put those lists together and you have eight players.  There are three position players, four starting pitchers, and one reliever.  It takes 25 players to complete a roster, meaning there should currently be 17 spots up for grabs.

May 27, 2013; Flushing, NY, USA; New York Mets third baseman David Wright (5) outside the batting cage before the game against the New York Yankees at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: John Munson/THE STAR-LEDGER via USA TODAY Sports

Now, before curling up into a ball and wallowing in despair, realize this: There’s every chance that another handful of players prove themselves fully and/or re-stake their claim in the coming months.  For example, Jeurys Familia and Scott Rice may solidify bullpen spots going forward.  Jack Leathersich could make the jump from AA to the major league pen and excel.  Ike Davis could rise from the ashes again, Ruben Tejada might remember that his strength isn’t hitting the ball in the air, and one of the Mets’ many plus defensive center fielders might prove worthy of a spot (either Matt den Dekker, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, or Juan Lagares).  That would make the task of turning this team into a contender much less daunting.  Still, there’s plenty of work to be done.

Anyone who thinks it’ll be easy to make the Mets a perennial powerhouse is deluding themselves.  On the other hand, it should be noted that those who shout in agony about how dire the situation is are over-reacting.  The Mets have a solid core, they have a solid minor league system, and they have money to spend after this season.  They simply need to execute their plan properly.  So, what is that plan?  According to Sandy Alderson, the plan may involve trading for established pieces before the July trade deadline with an eye on 2014 and beyond.  Alderson stated:

We will see how the market develops, but yes (the team is open to adding big league talent before the trade deadline).  It’s a possibility.  It depends on what’s available.  I have been involved in deals in the past whose first consideration was not the current season but the following season…the possibility of making an acquisition that has implications not just for the second half of this season? Yes.

Because of the mostly miserable seasons the Mets have had over the last four plus years, and due to the payroll slashing that was in large part due to the Bernard Madoff situation and its negative impact on ownership, it’s understandable that a certain percentage of Mets fans would remain skeptical of both the Mets’ long term aspirations and the intentions of those in charge.  However, when that doubt involves ignoring facts and making unsubstantiated statements, it gets out of hand and borders on absurdity.

There are still plenty who think the Mets and Sandy Alderson take the fans for imbeciles, who believe that this rebuilding plan is an elaborate ruse.  I suppose anything’s possible, but the idea that the Mets’ plan is to string fans along forever without attempting to improve the team is ludicrous.

A few seasons ago, Sandy Alderson turned Carlos Beltran into Zack Wheeler.  Roughly five months ago, he turned R.A. Dickey into Travis d’Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard, and Wuilmer Becerra.  Over the winter, the Mets pursued Justin Upton (via trade) and Michael Bourn (via free agency).  If the Mets were able to keep their draft pick, they likely would’ve signed Bourn.  It was reported that the Mets were Bourn’s first choice and he was ready to sign.  He simply couldn’t wait for the league office to decide whether or not the Mets would be allowed to keep their draft pick in the event they signed him.

The situation with Upton was different.  The Mets were willing to trade key pieces from both the major league and minor league talent pool, but Arizona insisted on Zack Wheeler.  After the Mets wisely refused, Arizona dealt Upton for Martin Prado (who they could’ve signed outright after this year) and a package of non top tier prospects.  When the Braves visited Citi Field last week, Upton told the media that he knew the Mets had been discussing acquiring him during the offseason.

If the Mets’ grand scheme was to make up rumors and laugh maniacally while they watched fans cry, would they really go to the trouble of having fake interest in Justin Upton?  Additionally, who in their right mind would pay to see the Mets play because the team had simply explored the idea of acquiring Upton?  What would the point of making up a fake Upton rumor be from the Mets’ end?  The answer?  There wouldn’t be a point.  The Mets tried to trade for Justin Upton, and it didn’t happen.  That failure left Sandy Alderson holding the bag.  Instead of exploring other trades or signing a stopgap or two, he opted to go with an outfield that was widely viewed as pathetic.  That outfield has mostly lived up to its billing.

To circle back to the main point, where do the Mets go from here?  As it’s noted above, the team has a solid core of young, promising players.  They have money to spend after the offseason (spending roughly $40 million would bring them back to this year’s payroll of $95 million).  According to Sandy Alderson, the team is also willing to make a proactive move in the coming months with 2014 and beyond in mind.  Such a move wouldn’t be out of character for the Mets.

In June of 1983, with the Mets mired in the middle of a miserable season that would see them finish 68-94, Frank Cashen (who had taken over as general manager in 1980) traded for Keith Hernandez.  If you’ve ever heard Hernandez tell the story, you’d know that his first instinct was to finish out the year and get the hell out of New York.  The Mets were coming off six consecutive losing seasons (’83 was the seventh) and had failed to eclipse 67 wins in any of them.  After Hernandez saw the young talent around him and in the minors, he bought in.  The rest is history.

I believe Sandy Alderson when he says the Mets may look to make a similar move in the coming months.  I believe him both because he has no reason to lie, and because making such a move would be smart.

It’s clear that the Mets need to add two established outfielders between now and the beginning of 2014.  If one of them is a star such as Carlos Gonzalez or Giancarlo Stanton who’s acquired via trade and the other is a free agent (Shin-Soo Choo for example), fine.  If the Mets acquire two outfielders via trade, great.  If they wind up signing two outfielders via free agency, that’d be great as well.  The important thing is securing those players.  If the Mets were to make a blockbuster trade, it would likely cost them some of their top pitching prospects.  That’s something Sandy Alderson will have to consider.

The Mets have work to do, and it’s likely that it won’t be easy.  When you think of what powerhouse teams are made of, though, strong starting pitching comes to mind.  There’s every chance that at the beginning of 2014, the Mets will boast a rotation that includes Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jonathon Niese, and Rafael Montero.  Sometime after the middle of the season, Noah Syndergaard could be called up to round out the group.

There’s also a chance that the Mets trade either Montero or Syndergaard (and others) for an impact outfielder.  If that were to happen, they’d likely look to fill one of their spots in the rotation via free agency.

It’s not easy being a fan of the Mets.  The earliest memory I have of them is from the mid 80′s, so I can’t begin to imagine what it must’ve been like to live and root through the disaster that was the late 70′s and early 80′s.  What I can imagine, is the franchise turning this thing around quickly and authoritatively.  They have the core, they have the chips to trade, and they have the money to spend.  The plan has been forming over the last several seasons.  Starting now, it’s time to begin to execute that plan.

 

 

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Topics: New York Mets, Sandy Alderson

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  • Joe_JP

    The Mets have enough players that by themselves are at best adequate but if part of a package should net helpful players. Some players might by themselves serve needs — teams always seem to need a reliable catcher. Duda might be seen as worth a shot for DH/1B. Enough teams have needs or a surfeit of something to be willing to offer something use for the right price. After the horrible start, it seems about time to have a major shake-up. It’s embarrassing.

    • paqza

      Of course, Duda may also be the 1B of the future for the team – he’s the second best hitter on the team, not that much of a defensive liability at first, and really is about as sure an offensive piece as we have. Thing is, he may be more valuable to the Mets as a player than in a trade, especially due to Ike’s setback. In Duda, I see Joey Votto-lite, which isn’t half bad at 1/30th the price.

    • Joe_JP

      Daniel Murphy seems to be the second best hitter on the team. As to his efforts at 1B, hard to tell — little experience in bigs.

      [The reply provides a link that -- contra various indicators -- has Duda second, Murphy third. Given the former, I find the ranking dubious. CBS Sports -- link avoided to save moderation -- has Murphy second even if we rely on stat rankings.]

    • paqza

      First off, I don’t know why my post hasn’t been included since FanGraphs is a legitimate source within baseball circles, so pox on Rising Apple for that. However, the point is that Duda has a higher OBP and a higher slugging percentage than Murphy. He gets on base more and he hits the ball harder than Murphy.

      So how is it exactly that Duda, despite getting on base more often and hitting the ball harder, is a better hitter than Murphy? Gonna have to call bullshit.

      What magical indicators do you refer to that put Murphy ahead of Duda, exactly?

    • Joe_JP

      Batting average would be one such “magical indicator” along with RBIs. I’ll admit balancing all the indicators is lost to me after awhile but as a viewer, sorry, Murphy looks like a better hitter than Duda. Your link had Murphy third. “Bullshit” really requires a bit more wrong than that imho. True that he is getting a lot of walks, which does help, but even there the OBP is not really much (.017) higher. (SI data)

    • paqza

      Batting doesn’t mean anything if you’re not getting on base as much, and also depends on opponent fielders. RBIs are a team stat, not a player stat. On individual batting statistics, Duda is a better hitter than Murphy – he gets on base more and hits the ball harder when he does.

    • Joe_JP

      The OBP differential is .017, which simply isn’t that impressive & is explained by base on balls. Duda walking a lot is a mixed blessing. A batter “bats in” so it is a player stat too. Murphy also does a better job hitting for average. They are ranked 2/3 on your list. I found another list as noted where Murphy is ahead. It’s at the very least debatable.

  • Tom Mac

    The one thing I’ve always said to myself was that Murph is underrated and some fans take him for granted when they’ve said we should trade him because there either wasn’t a spot for him or because he is a mediocre defensive 2B. He really isn’t hitting any different now that he has throughout any year of his career. A little more pop, but a solid hitter with a good batting average. What you want out of a 2 hitter.

  • Tom Mac

    Although many people will attribute Duda’s questionable future with the Mets to his defense and suggest he could be a DH in the AL, this couldn’t become so if Duda can’t prove himself to be a consistent reliable hitter. Even if you’ve got the power to hit 20-25 home runs (which he hasn’t done yet), if you are hitting .230-.240 and striking out a lot, what trade value will he really develop?

  • Tom Mac

    As for where Mets fans go from here, we be realistic. Unlike in 2009 when we expected good play, in 2010 when we hoped for a bounceback, in 2011 when we were mislead by a great first half and to a lesser degree in 2012, this season is easier. Going into the year, we knew it’d be a miracle to be .500. Instead of Dickey’s greatness, it is Harvey. It is all about player development right now. Whether it be players like Parnell taking the next step or assessing what Duda, Valdespin and others are worth to the Mets, this season has less pressure. Hopefully 2014 is different though.

    • Joe_JP

      The team was about the same as last year — Harvey steps in the Dickey slot, Marcum the oft-injured fifth starter spot etc. Buck a bit better than Thole overall. And, we expected something out of Santana. Pen about the same. OF not much different — no Hairston, but maybe the others would give you enough to balance things out. And, at least two players were due in the summer to liven things up. Problem is April, with an easy schedule, quickly became a deluge. Niese sucked etc. Not expected.